I am neither statistician or epidemiologist.
I will admit that my news intake is VERY little. I strongly dislike the news, but that's another story for another day. A bit ago, goobster posted something about trump killing more Americans than the attacks on 9/11. It got me thinking about the numbers. I couldn't find what I was looking for, so using wikipedia for overall populations, and the Johns Hopkins heat map for the COVID-19 data, I put together the following point in time sheet.
This gives me so many questions and thoughts... not limited to:
1 - ok, so obviously China is lying so much worse than we expected.
2 - is India lying? underreporting? lucky? naturally immune?
3 - Germany seems to be doing something right.
4 - damnit Spain... you're about as bad off as Italy - but they get all the press.
5 - is the US the only country reporting honestly?
6 - holy crap if we had a mortality rate like Italy we'd lose 40 million muricans.
thank you for listening to me jabber.
The saddest... most sobering thought of all.... one of the country's death numbers went up by one while I was doing this. That was somebody's wife. or husband. or parent. or child. or grandparent. They're not just a number on my spreadsheet. Probably several more will die before you read this.
I can stay home. I can wear a mask. I can be grateful.
I could give you a well-reasoned answer to each of these questions point-by-point, with references. If you want me to I will. But my take on all of this is related to seeing an actual "JAPAN ATTACKS PEARL HARBOR" newspaper in the flesh as opposed to seeing two seconds of it in some ancient newsreel. 'cuz I got to read the actual article, and they were talking about how "dozens died" in the scurrilous attack by Japan. "Several" ships were "damaged" in the attack. Here we were, drumming up support for war, and the actual numbers were orders of magnitude greater than what was reported in the press. Actual numbers came out the next day, I guess. We'd declared war by then. But in the moment, the sheer magnitude of what had happened was yet to be discovered. And that was a localized thing, top-down coordinated by the navy, with a hierarchical structure to interrogate. I mean, look. There are no COVID-19 statistics on me. I spent a couple hours trying to get tested and gave up. There are no COVID-19 statistics on my mother-in-law. She spent three hours trying to get tested and gave up. There are no COVID-19 statistics on my daughter or my wife. There are no COVID-19 statistics on our other midwife, who despite being a healthcare worker who has an immediate relative whom she spent an evening with legit testing positive for COVID-19, has been turned down for testing. I know two people who have even been tested for COVID-19: the aforementioned midwife's father-in-law, who went to the hospital with respiratory distress, and one of my wife's patients, who has called 911 three times in 24 hours and been in an ambulance twice (for a combination of kidney infection and panic attacks). And remember: WE HAVE TESTS. We could run 'em if we wanted to. We don't. Nobody wants to run them because the protocol basically involves wearing a bunny suit and masks we don't have and treating the sample like it's made out of radioactive ebola. So nobody tests. Know what EMS is doing around here? If you call them for a heart attack, they'll show up, cardiovert you, get you stable and then wait. They'll watch to see if they have to cardiovert you again. If you're stable? They'll take you to the hospital. If you flip again? Yeah, they'll do what they can with you in your house but you're not going to the hospital, bubba. Because the resources aren't there anymore. They're not going to throw you into an overcrowded ward where you're someone else's problem. If you can't be made right by EMS, you are meeting your mutherfucking maker. Are you dying of COVID? Sure, probably. Are they going to test for it? Don't make me laugh. Is your condition going to be listed as cardiac arrest on your toe tag? Definitely. Did you die of COVID even if you weren't infected? I mean, last year they would have taken you to the hospital hell or high water. watch this. We want statistics because they give us control. We want the numbers because they put a name to the nameless dread. But there are people dying, and there are a lot of them, and we don't know the true numbers and we probably never will. So really, what your chart is doing is giving a glimpse into the numbers everyone is obsessing over without really having a clue what to tie them into. My mother was a professional epidemiologist for a while. She legit shut down an outbreak of Legionaire's Disease. I had to explain R0 to her. The way we're talking about this thing, the way we're trying to wrap our heads around it has not nearly enough basis in logic for us to be giving it so much faith. Maybe a month ago, back when Seattle was just setting up drive-through testing (LOLllllerskates on that one), I opined that you'll know someone who knows someone who died of COVID-19. Nothing I've seen has changed my mind on that. You'll also know businesses that aren't around anymore - I'm already there. You'll know people whose careers changed. But we won't really know what the mortality rates were even looking back. We'll be able to guess, the same way we found the opioid epidemic four years after the fact, by combing through every goddamn death in the United States and reclassifying them. GOOD THING THE STOCK MARKET IS UP OR ELSE WE'D HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SOMETHING
Nah man... I was just musing into the void. Those are just a fraction of the thoughts and feels I've been thinking and feeling. totally get it... data is only as good as the collection thereof. This is terrifying, but I get it. That's the nut of it. I had to dig in a little and get a little uncomfortable to remind myself why this is all worth it. I know, but I had to try , in my own little way to do it. By the way - thanks for sending the animated graph. I needed to see that. As always - I appreciate the thoughtful response. Just trying to find my way through the days here. but hey that lady from Ohio is covered in the blood of Jesus... so at least she's good.I could give you a well-reasoned answer to each of these questions point-by-point, with references. If you want me to I will.
So nobody tests.
If you can't be made right by EMS, you are meeting your mutherfucking maker.
We want statistics because they give us control. We want the numbers because they put a name to the nameless dread.
the way we're trying to wrap our heads around it has not nearly enough basis in logic for us to be giving it so much faith.
Or maybe you have one of the world's most incompetent leaders. From the vantage point of Europe, the US response to this crisis has been beyond laughable. And it wasn't amazing here either, so that's saying something.5 - is the US the only country reporting honestly?
You guys should try Trump in an international court for criminal negligence regarding his covid-19 inactions. We're too fucking stupid to hold him accountable for anything here. Thanks in advance
Few weeks ago, I asked a hornet's nest of liberal lawyers if it was possible, and they expressed very little hope :(
I believe we don't recognize the International Criminal Court and it's been proposed or legislated that we can invade the Hague under certain conditions. Because we do lots of crimes of the war and against humanity type. The ICC pretty much only prosecutes African leaders for some odd reason
Spain and Italy turn fascist, Czech and Slovakia unite to give up together one last time, BeNeLux puts forward a motion of no confidence against Trump which takes 5 years to resolve, every street in France forms their own resistance to fight for their vision of France, whatever Britain does will make them think they won the war, Nordics and Switzerland get richer, nobody cares about the Balkans, and Germany and Russia take over Poland because old habits die hard. One big /s
Let’s exclude the entire west coast of the US from that statement but otherwise I agree.
From what I’ve gathered, Italy has an older population, more people in the high risk age group = more deaths. A lot of the original cases in India involved Italian tourists, so they’re a bit behind at the moment which explains the lower numbers. Not sure if this is a busy or slow time in India for tourism which is something else that would affect things. The other thing is, a lot of these countries can take extreme measures early on without worrying about backlash. Take a look at Taiwan, they’re doing great and considering their ties with China that seems impossible until you take into account that they can openly track citizens location via their cell phone. India can also heavily restrict movement without worrying about loosing an election. Last thing, and this isn’t to be rude, but the culture in the states is very individualistic. The numbers are high, because in an individualistic culture people are less likely to sacrifice for the group. The common themes of all these measures to slow the spread are about working together and sacrificing to help others. Cancelling your spring break beach trip, closing your business, and otherwise inconveniencing yourself for others isn’t characteristic of individualistic cultures. Every culture has pros and cons, this is a time when collectivist cultures shine a little brighter.
i'm not sure how India will fair. last I heard on the BBC, the upper/middle class is prepared well enough but that the government was locking down crowded slums, and confining residents to the small homes they typically share with large groups of people. Hopefully it does not hit them as bad as it has elsewhere, but I think like you said that hey are just behind. What do you all see as an end solution to the current state we are in? Without an adequate treatment or vaccine, I'm not sure how we are supposed to end social distancing and economic shutdown caused by it. From what I've picked up it doesn't sound like a treatment or vaccine will be available soon.
My understanding was it could go bad fast in India mainly among poorer communities like you mention. I’m optimistic with the news I hear out of Canada. We’ve got companies retooling to produce masks and face shields among other things. The first should be ready to make 100 000 daily in a week. I saw another story that we’re starting a trial using plasma from people who have recovered to treat people who are currently sick. I’ll try to find these articles again, I’m trying to look at the more positive stuff lately. I’m getting ready for a couple more months of this, but I’m hoping once we pass the peak all those companies making masks and hand sanitizer can start distributing to the general population so we can get out a little sooner.
So true, re: America. And American exceptionalism doesn’t help the US either. “We’ll never get it here, this is America!”.
I saw an NYT headline that indicated that US is probably also unrepresenting its numbers, but now I can't find the article to link, so...not helpful. My dad pointed out to me that if the best-case scenario is that we lose 100,000 people, that we are still in the early stages of this thing.
KB's animated graph showed 2k deaths in ONE MONTH, without effective tracking in place. Florida and Georgia's governors just claimed - on Monday - to have discovered that you can carry/spread the virus without showing any symptoms. Spring Break and Mardi Gras were ~two weeks ago. Only 100,000 people die? My money is on 3m, in a final rough 'official' tally.
Good math. (That's coming from a professional writer, so....) With the recent news about the unexplained heart damage being caused by COVID-19, I expect these numbers will increase, as they redefine some heart-related deaths to the Coronavirus infection. And yeah... rugged individualists are exceptional and don't get sick... except when they do.