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Creativity




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Thanks ! She should be crushed, but the population is really divided, what’s going on in many heads is something like this:

--> I really don’t want Le Pen

--> I don’t want Macron, I don’t want to make him think I support his program by voting for him, I don’t want him to think that if he wins by a landslide it’s because there is a lot of support for him

--> Should I abstain?

--> If too many people think that way we are going to get Le Pen

--> Let me die.

So it’s probably going to be something along the lines of 60% Macron – 40% Le Pen, where 30% of people who voted for Macron did it despite not adhering to his ideas. And there should be around 20%-25% who either abstain or vote “white” which means neither candidate.

Hi goobster,

The coalition will be created – or not – through the results of the legislative election (mid-june). Basically, there are 577 seats at Parliament that will be contended between the different political parties. Macron will present one of his guy for every seat (with a rule: he wants 50% men and 50% women, and he also wants 50% persons from civil society and 50% from already elected guys). If he gets 50% seats, he will be able to apply his politics easily. But it’s probably not going to happen, so what we are going to probably get is a President who will ally with the right-side of the Parliament when he wants to pass laws which involves reducing workers right to improve liberty of companies; and ally with the left-side government when he wants to pass laws which involves increasing egality (gross generalization but you get the idea).

---

Some established politicians joined his party, the first that come to mind is François Bayrou, who is a center-guy who tried to be elected president in 2012 (9,13% of votes in the first round) and in 2007 (18,57% of votes in the first round). He decided to join Macron this year instead of trying to get elected. After that, you have a lot of elected politicians from left and right who joined him. You also have Manuel Valls (ex-prime minister), who lost the party socialist primary election who instead of supporting Benoît Hamon (which he was supposed to do after signing the convention of the primary), supported Macron – He didn’t join his party yet, but Macron has some traction from established politicians.

What’s more, Macron worked for two years at the Rothschild bank, where he made millions and got some nice contacts, notably with the media. Here’s in yellow some of his close contacts/friends (mostly billionaires, the number at the center indicates in which position their wealth is in France, e.g. Bernard Arnauld is #2, the second richest person in France) who owns the most “attention-span” of French citizens. I believe he will know where to go to get shit done.

France is now ranked 45 in a freedom of press ranking from 2016 (we were 38 in 2015): https://rsf.org/fr/classement ; in the last 5 years, there was a lot of acquisitions and consolidation from big companies & billionaires.

---

Well, he is not Le Pen in the sense that people will get behind him for the second round (99% confidence), but not by adhesion. France is extremely divided:

Macron 24,01%

LePen 21,30%

Fillon 20,01%

Mélenchon 19,58%

And it will be complicated to get behind him because he represents the symptoms of why shit hits the fans for the middle class and those who struggles – or more than half the population. He is the poster child of neoliberalism, which is more or less the reason why LePen is so high in the first place.

The French stock market opened +4% the day after the first round. The economy is going to get better, but at what price socially? Probably more inequality, a greater divide, and who knows what at the end of the tunnel.

He still has some good ideas though, it’s not as binary as that, but it’s going to be… complicated.

It is just for the president. Regional elections will be held in 2021, and local elections in 2020. The presidential election is the one which gets people crazy the most, but there are still some tensions in regionals and local elections.

What’s going to be up soon after are the Legislative Election in June (first round: 11 june, second round: 18 june), which will let the people vote for members of parliament. It will also be a very interesting election (as Trump said about this one) as it will tell if the President will be able to execute his program easily or if there is going to be a lot of opposition if he doesn’t get the majority.

The delay of two weeks between the two rounds is due to the delay necessary by the Constitutional Council to check if there is any complaint, to announce the official results, and to let the possibility of one candidate to withdraw.

Macron is going to have everybody behind him -- the media, almost all the other candidates (Fillon -- 19% and Hamon -- 6% already said they are going to vote for him), and he's already ahead in the first round (still counting though).

The polls were right at a very precise level for the first round. For now, polls gives between 60-65% for Macron against 35-40% for Le Pen in the second round.

I can't be 100% sure, but I'm 99.9% confident and I would put money on this on PredictIt. If it was Fillon vs LePen, I would have more doubt, but here it seems to be a no brainer -- as of today.

Macron is the "most" pro-euro candidate, so it will have to wait at least 5 -- 10? years if you want to see this happening.

Well Macron will be President in two weeks.

That sounds like a really great idea.

Creativity  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: January 25, 2017

Hey steve, thanks for asking them!

I can only hope so :)

This is really great.

Its not only refugees, the ban even concerns green-card holders and those with visas.

    The father of the family that rents an apartment in my building went to Sudan for his mothers funeral. Now he cant even come back. Worst, he is the only one that makes income in his family, his kids are too young, and his wife doesnt speak english. Hes already paid his rent a month in advance, but what about next month. I feel awful for his family. I dont even know what they can do at this point.

    So there are people with jobs to get back to on Monday and rent that's going to be due on the first, and they are stuck in airports with nowhere to go

    They're going to be left jobless and forced out of the country despite having a green card and living here totally legally. And if they have pets or something at home, too bad.

Students and professors, who visited family, can't re-enter the US.

This is crazy.

Creativity  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: January 25, 2017

That would be really nice !

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