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kleinbl00

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kleinbl00  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fears of sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines

kleinbl00  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 502nd Weekly "Share Some Music You've Been Into Lately"
kleinbl00  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: This miracle plant was eaten into extinction 2,000 years ago—or was it?

Who can be? that said, IF:

- Minoan civilization is dated to 3500BC and IF

- the Minoans had a glyph for it and IF

- Alexander the Great was already looking for a substitute in 350 BC THEN

It's safe to assume the cultivation of silphium predates the Mycenians, and also likely to presume that it had attained permanent cultural importance with the Minoans, especially as the Minoans were matriarchal and had a much more driving need for effective birth control.

kleinbl00  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 21, 2022

You have to keep in mind that it's a rare economist who suffers from their predictions being wildly wrong.

But those predictions can be wildly wrong and still be really f'n rough for Russia, the Russian people and greater Asia in general. Considering all the jockeying between Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Georgia already a further weakening of Russia geopolitically is going to open a bloody free-for-all.

kleinbl00  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 21, 2022

kleinbl00  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: This miracle plant was eaten into extinction 2,000 years ago—or was it?

So thing 1: silphium was an abortofacient, not a hormonal control agent. There's plenty o'abortofacients out there and all of them are beaten by modern pharmacology. That said:

    Analyses of the root extract identified 30 secondary metabolites—substances which, while they don’t contribute to the primary business of helping a plant grow or reproduce, nonetheless confer some kind of selective advantage. Among the compounds, many of which have cancer-fighting, contraceptive, and anti-inflammatory properties, is shyobunone, which acts on the brain’s benzodiazepine receptors and may contribute to the plant’s intoxicating smell.

You are talking about a plant that, if it's the one, is our most likely candidate for the original panacea. The Minoans and Egyptians had their own glyphs for silphium. It was the basic medicine for the entire Mediterranean from 3500BC until like 60 CE.

And again, IF (big if) Ferula wtfever has the makings of all the stuff the Minoans, Greeks, Romans, Cyreneans and everybody else used it for? It could be awesome or it could be a nothingburger.

I think it's more interesting that cuisine went from "zomg gotta have this herb that we make three different ways" to "sure substitute this stuff the locals call 'devil's dung' it'll have to do". It's like going from saffron to dandelions, if saffron root was something kings cooked with.

    "The Cyrenaic kind, even if one just tastes it, at once arouses a humour throughout the body and has a very healthy aroma, so that it is not noticed on the breath, or only a little; but the Median [Iranian] is weaker in power and has a nastier smell."

Dioscorides

kleinbl00  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: This miracle plant was eaten into extinction 2,000 years ago—or was it?

I was over the fucking moon when I read this last night.

kleinbl00  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 21, 2022

So WanderingEng's comment above:

    Dating: I've been talking with this girl I met at the YMCA. We do the same class every week. We text about once a day, sometimes less. She seems really busy, and when we talk I feel like she's really engaged in getting to know me better. She brought up dating without talking about us dating. Just, she seems open to it on however long of a timeline it might take.

You:

    Plus I'm now up to FIVE times where someone says they're up to dinner or a drink or whatever and then just never. communicates. again. What the fuck is that, it is terrible behavior that is only enabled because of the low stakes environment these apps provide.

THIS IS NOT A VALUE JUDGMENT. However, if you look at the basic attitudes of the sentences above, the former is "I'm going to stay here and see what happens" while the latter is "I'm going to go over there and see what happens."

You are not the guru on the mountain, watching the same sunrise every morning for fifty years in order to attain enlightenment through repetition. You are wandering the Holy Land until you find The Grail. Down to the pseudonyms: you are not "wandering". It would not occur to you to "wander." You are about the small changes somewhere else that lead to seismic effects.

Fundamentally, you favor information and experiences that you must seek out, and discount information and experiences that come to you. There's nothing wrong with that. I merely wish to point out that your value system favors those things you pursue, and that given a choice between "static" and "dynamic" I've never seen you choose "static."

kleinbl00  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 501st Weekly "Share Some Music You've Been Into Lately"
kleinbl00  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

It's a patriotism play. That's my point - when you start from a place of guaranteed righteousness you can get just about anywhere with very little effort. "If you think this is immoral then clearly you are not patriotic."

kleinbl00  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

Rhetorically speaking, the architecture is (1) "what we are doing is correct beyond doubt or question" (2) "therefore an explanation for the way we are doing it is a courtesy and a privilege." This is the fundamental difference between an open society and a closed society: the open society requires the government to act with consensus or else the government is replaced. The closed society is compelled by the government so the consensus is achieved by definition. It's not "prisoners or your children you pick" it's "the Nazis are so depraved and worthy of genocide that even our hardened prisoners wish to take part in this historic, patriotic action."

kleinbl00  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

Oh I've heard plenty - it's just that I haven't even attempted to speak the language in nearly 40 years and am fully cognizant that everything I see and hear, I see and hear through a filter. This is one of many reasons I, and other Westerners, should regard things in terms of verifiable facts.

According to official Russian statistics, Ukrainians have been killing an average of 262 Russian soldiers per day. On average, Afghan Mujahedin killed less than three per day in Afghanistan. On average, Ukrainians have been wounding about 800 Russian soldiers per day. Afghanistan? seventeen.

"Decimate" has become a synonym for "annihilate" or "wipe out" or "utterly defeat." Historically and technically, however, to decimate means to reduce in strength by 1/10th through attrition. In terms of Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine, Russia's force has been decimated ten times over - in terms of statistics, Russia has accomplished the mathematically impossible and has lost more troops than it committed. In terms of active Russian forces? Decimation was months ago. In terms of history, Ukraine is an Afghanistan every fortnight and, aside from Ukraine's near total lack of navy, has already exceeded the Russo-Japanese War. Both conflicts toppled their leaders.

Americans thinking they understand Russia is a trope that I am VERY guilty of. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice... something something George W Bush. I'm not about to pretend any insights in to Russia, Russian behavior or Putin's subconscious.

But I can say that if two points determine a line, this is statistically a regime change event.

kleinbl00  ·  9 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

Four months ago Western audiences were being told Russia had artillery stockpiles that could support their relentless battle tempo for eighteen months. Two weeks ago Western audiences were being told Russia was buying artillery rounds from North Korea.

I'm not an expert on Russia. I'm not an expert on war. But you don't go from the former to the latter without lowering expectations. The fact that the most effective weapon in the Russian arsenal appears to be a loitering munition from Iran puts a tarnish on the Red Army, to put it mildly.

kleinbl00  ·  9 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

I'm very much enjoying not being in Russia. I hope you and yours are safe.

kleinbl00  ·  9 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Alla Pugacheva, the Russian Queen of Pop, comes out against the war

kleinbl00  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ethereum blockchain slashes energy use with 'Merge' software upgrade

    Uncharted territories for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if we're gonna see a few bumpy moments in the next months.

To the contrary - I think the traders on Twitter are deeply frustrated that the algorithm doesn't care about their feelings. No one is using ETH for anything, so the fees are low. 20% of it is staked so the stake earnings are low. Fundamentally they all thought (we all thought?) that the merge would happen, Jesus would descend from the heavens, Blackrock would buy a trillion dollars worth of ETH and we'd all ride into the sunset in our lambos.

We know what's going to happen. It's an equation. When gas is above 15 gwei, ethereum is deflationary. When gas is below 15 gwei, ethereum is inflationary. If Yuga decided to pull this bullshit again, the burn will be ridiculous - gas hit 474 with that little stunt. The more you use it, the more valuable it becomes, full stop. The more valuable it becomes, the more incentive for sharding and off-chain stuff.

    To some degree nobody knows the new balance but I feel like my level of understanding of Ethereum has declined in the past years as the tech has become more occluded.

Well, I mean the entire fee structure changed barely a year ago. And nobody has really had their head on about staking, and all the discussion has been about "liquid" staking, which isn't staking, it's pawn.

It's really pretty simple. Think of it like a construction bond. You put up a certain amount of money as guarantee that a homeowner will have recourse if you screw up her kitchen miserably. Having that bond gives you the right to legally remodel kitchens in circumstances where the government wants a bonded contractor to do the work. You put up money, you buy the right to work. In this case, you are putting up 32 ETH for the right to vote on blocks, which pays you fees a few different ways. The end.

Or think of it like a fishing license. I knew a guy who really wanted a lobster permit - they're $100k a year and there's a long list but if you have one, you have the potential to make half a million a year. Or think of it like a taxi medallion - they were $100k and there's a long list. Having one, however, gave you the right to drive around Manhattan charging people a dollar a mile to be taken from street corner to street corner which is an excellent middle class living until Uber destroys it.

    I keep forgetting that the fundamental innovation behind crypto is its ability to create trust from algorithms (aka thin air). Considering there is nothing but a vague promise, it's a small miracle that there are already 420,000 validators each putting 32 ETH just on that promise.

Yeah but once you get it, you get it. It's not a miracle, it's math. And once you get that, the implications are profound.

The problem "the market" has right now is they're rightly assessing that their immediate fortunes are much more impacted by the fact that Germany seized Rosneft's operations than they are by the fact that Ethereum now fits in ESG funds. They aren't even looking at the whole trustless aspect of it all because it isn't tradeable right now.

kleinbl00  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events

Their tastes are far more refined than that. Their love is entirely of Lockheed.

It was really something visiting the Little Ale-E-Inn and seeing an autographed photo of Chuck Yeager opposite an autographed photo of Bob Lazar. About as on-the-nose as you can get.

kleinbl00  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ethereum blockchain slashes energy use with 'Merge' software upgrade

kleinbl00  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Steve Jobs Archive

hey - Fake Steve Jobs parlayed a fading tech career into a useless gig at Hubspot, a book pillorying Hubspot and a season in the writer's room on Silicon Valley. Imagine what Real Steve Jobs can do.

kleinbl00  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ethereum blockchain slashes energy use with 'Merge' software upgrade

Haha well let's talk about some of the factors at play, starting with the big one: Treasury rates (anyone's treasury rates) are determined by policy, while staking returns are determined by algorithm.

It's true, US Treasury rates reflect the Phillips Curve. In practice, however, that means there are a handful of people (each with their handful of advisors, who have a handful of advisors, who are all influenced a little or a lot by entirely human factors, who are all paid by the government) trying to decide how much they care about the coefficients and factors. We started with

gW=gW^{T}-f(U)

And are now at something that can't be rendered in markup without laTEX, all because the curve really doesn't fit very well. Not only that it fits extra-special poorly during times of policy upheaval - it fit like shit in WWI, it fit like shit in WWII, it fit like shit after the Nixon Shock, it fit like shit as soon as Trump was elected and it fits like total shit now but you don't get to add more fudge factors until the dust has settled or else you give the secret away.

And it's true - the algorithm whereby ETH is burned and created is governed by a bunch of furries with bat signals in their twitter handles. But they tend to argue in public and the transparency into the process is total. Everyone was expecting ETH to be deflationary the minute proof of stake went live - it's not. Everyone was expecting prices to skyrocket - they didn't. Everyone expected innovation and adoption to explode - it hasn't (yet - it's been like five days).

So on the one hand, you have a group of people acting almost entirely in private to stabilize societies. On the other, you have a group of people acting almost entirely in public to destabilize finance. They might both talk about interest rates, but they're coming from such wildly different places that I don't think you can draw any inferences. YES - the whole idea is you get money for locking up your money. Thing is though anybody who has so much as opened Github will tell you it's early early early days for blockchain. I spent much of my week explaining Arianee to a guy who sells RFID for a living.

Another big factor? Exchange rate. Right now the dollar is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. With events in Europe and events in China, the dollar is likely to get stronger for at least as long as Biden is in office. American foreign policy never really left the '80s while American business policy spent the '90s and '00s skeletonizing everyone's economy. Now the Cold War is back, the edge for manufacturing in Shenzen has disappeared and Democrats are spraying the moneygun at anybody who wants to put "Made in America" stickers on their products, particularly if it's related to technology or semiconductors.

Compare and contrast. 80% of web3 distributed finance stuff was on Ethereum, and for the past year it's all been rug pull scammyscam ICO NFT bullshit. and.... this.

Enough dipshits convinced other dipshits to buy second derivatives of the gamma of the delta that the actual marker in the middle got lost in the shell game; the contagion around Three Arrows Capital is around $43b, best guess. Ethereum has a market cap, at this moment, of around $175b, or "about a third of a Facebook". If Facebook was facing $120b of losses it'd be fucking over. Google lost a $4b judgement last week but their market cap is 2,650 billion. Ethereum got kicked in the nuts earlier in the year and it's only because the "experts" doing the talking are business majors and armchair dipshits who lack the curiosity or drive to even figure out what the fuck is actually going on.

Finally, let's talk about process. You buy a bond, you get a guaranteed return. You can buy and sell that return, you can option that return, you can future that return, you can do all sorts of crazy shit to that return, but it starts with a guarantee. It's a process with a three hundred year history backed by military force.

You stake ether? you have

- sitting there money. You get this for participating in validation and is dependent on the algorithm. More stakers less money.

- proposal submission money. You get this when luck favors you. It is a random-number-generator process. I had a knock-down drag-out fight with a couple other nerds two or three testnets ago because all of a sudden, I was getting a fuckton of submitted proposals. Based on what I could figure out it looked like Teku had an edge over other validator clients, but just until everyone else updated their software. Regardless, submission money was like 5x sitting there money, then was like 10x, and is now something like 8x. Your "interest rate" requires some serious curve-fitting to turn into a discrete number:

- slashing money. There remains a hefty bounty for anyone who can successfully accuse another robot of being sheisty. The slashing money is so good and the sheisty success odds are so low that this almost never happens? But it's there...

And hey, as of the merge, you're now looking at

- mining money. Now that the proof-of-work stuff is done, the stakers are out there "finding blocks." I literally got an email this morning and went "what the fuck is this?" but apparently I'm a miner now, too.

And of course there's still tips on top of transactions, variable gas fees and all the rest. Time Magazine put it this way:

    Developers have explained that updating what is essentially the network’s operating system is incredibly difficult, especially given that it will be up and running the entire time: it will be akin to swapping out a car’s gas engine for an electric one while it’s barreling full-speed down a freeway.

And they did. And it was utterly seamless. I watched a livestream of the merge; it was a bunch of white male nerds sitting around going "well as soon as we get a validation on this block it means it actually happened" and "as soon as we get this message it means it didn't break" so it was kind of like people trying to drum up field-goal-from-the-50 energy for a linux checksum.

But now the metaphor has an entirely different type of motive power that nobody has any experience with. Yeah, Avalanche, yeah Solana but nobody has run a proof-of-stake network this large or this sophisticated. I mean, I looked at staking Avalanche. The amount I was looking to stake? I would have been on the pie charts. And I looked at staking Solana and (1) it's a joke, and not a very funny one and (2) it's a top-down rug-pull scam. You basically roll up with a big expensive server, pay a daily fee and pull your money whenever you want; there are only 1900 nodes, and ONE of them is running the entire testnet.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________

So really, you've got (1) geopolitical implications (2) exchange rate shenanigans (3) the technological frontier, any one of which absolutely swamp any reasonable trendline. Add to the fact that at some unspecified point in the future staked ether goes from an illiquid asset to a liquid asset, the fact that Gensler thinks proof-of-stake blockchains are securities and the fact that China is perfectly happy to bypass SWIFT and I don't think you can point to anything that gives anyone the slightest glimpse as to what this looks like.

$175b or no, Ethereum is a startup. Geopolitically? Between Iraq and Algeria. The batsignal furries on Twitter think of Ethereum as IBM but from a moxie standpoint it's still a bunch of nerds in a garage.

kleinbl00  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ethereum blockchain slashes energy use with 'Merge' software upgrade

I am. It's non-custodial. I did a fair amount of digging, then I did a fair amount of asking, and Allnodes came out miles ahead.

"Liquid staking derivatives" are financial instruments. You give them money, they pay you back with interest. I think it's all gonna change a bunch as soon as you can withdraw from the contract. I don't think they'll be in as happy a tax place as actual staking - right now, staked ETH cannot be withdrawn and commodities laws are pretty clear that if you can't access it, it can't be taxed.

kleinbl00  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events

quite. USA Today ran front-page sketches of the Voronezh aliens; they were a global phenomenon far more prominent than Roswell.

    A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, "this is where the light is".

Nasreddin

Graphics such as this say a lot more about the data source than what it professes to illuminate. That said, the actual data on actual unidentified flying objects is centered around Palmdale, Okinawa and Mildenhall.

kleinbl00  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Unidentified aerial phenomena I. Observations of events

I have thoughts.

UFOs are linked to the conspiracy-minded because UFOs have always been disinformation. More than that, we started seeing UFOs about the time we stopped seeing angels - I optioned a script about this, and the book I was repped for was on the same subject.

Extraterrestrial life will not look like cattle mutilations and sensor glitches. It will look like readily observable phenomena with no easy natural explanation. The core problem with UFOs in popular culture is that "they're hiding" for reasons that only make sense to conspiracy theorists.

kleinbl00  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ethereum blockchain slashes energy use with 'Merge' software upgrade

I know a few guys who mined. I almost did it a couple times.

I beat the ever-loving shit out of their returns through judicious application of capital, but if you don't have 32ETH, you have more analysis to do. Mining allows you to start with nothing but video cards and end up with nothing but imaginary money. Staking allows you to start with nothing but real money and ending up with imaginary money.