a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
nowaypablo's profile
nowaypablo

x 126

stats
following: 118
followed tags: 77
followed domains: 6
badges given: 48 of 49
hubskier for: 4372 days

It's a non-stop disco.


recent comments, posts, and shares:
nowaypablo  ·  52 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What’ll happen if we spend nearly $3tn on data centres no one needs?

Very cool background, thanks for the history.

    How the fuck is this investment going to amortize?

Mainly labor and consumer marketing, right? Dramatically reduced need for skilled labor to build and ship a product, or deliver a payment-worthy service at scale. Dramatically increased impact and faster "rpm" of efforts to capture consumer spending or attention.

e: Anecdote to explain where my POV is: I just left the Army a month ago. I'm dealing with the possibility that I am prepared for exactly 0% of the current and near-future reality of business and the ability to make meaningful money, because of the AI revolution. I know zero things about computer science. This weekend I completed putting together about 50% of the tech stack required for a piece of software I had an idea about while smoking my celebratory post-Army joint, entirely using ClaudeCode and then chatgpt to guide me through the rest. Most of my peers that got out of the Army are starting their MBA programs right now and I wouldn't be surprised if I surpass their marketability in the private sector by the time they graduate.

nowaypablo  ·  53 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What’ll happen if we spend nearly $3tn on data centres no one needs?

Had this same thought yesterday and I find it infinitely interesting as I was just a wee lad during the dot-com bubble. On a basic human level, risk management is out the window when possibilities start to get vested en masse and at face value. Friend of mine just got a $9mn check from a very well-known name in AI for the absolute dumbest piece of shit AI app I have ever witnessed.

On the other hand, taking a look at big-picture credit risk, wonder if the collaborative effort of some of these leading companies (investing in infrastructure, integrating into the grid, investing in nuclear, consolidation also on the lender's side) is a result of lessons learned from dot-com? In other words, the leading AI companies are practically sharing everything except the models and physical data center buildings themselves, no? I wonder if this ecosystem is a sufficient hedge when the fat gets cut, or is it significantly more dangerous than dot-com, all else equal?

nowaypablo  ·  89 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump Bombs Iran

I would just note on the point of Hezbollah being effectively liquidated, perhaps their historical role and influence out of Lebanon is moot now, but as I understand it, between HB across the middle east and the amalgamation of Iran-aligned militia groups, these are still legitimate asymmetrical threats in the Iranian pocket.

nowaypablo  ·  983 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hey! It's me, pabs. Just checking in. What have you been you up to?

veen, what an awesome bunch of news man. First of all, what you've achieved at work sounds nuts, I'm guessing folks are going to be relying on your model for years to come, and the model living in your house is someone you can rely on for a long, long time. I'll be sure to ping you for advice while I make progress with my own new and exciting relationship.

nowaypablo  ·  1377 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Virtual Hubski Meetup No. 12, approximately the 11th Hubski anniversary too!

I'll be working but maybe I'll be able to pop in and say hello. 11 years, holy shit.

nowaypablo  ·  1377 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Virtual Hubski Meetup No. 12, approximately the 11th Hubski anniversary too!

Hell yeah ref. Enjoy it.

nowaypablo  ·  1504 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Post some Japanese music

nowaypablo  ·  1569 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Who’s in Denver?

we’re just popping in for an hour or two now, no worries! I actually don’t smoke anymore but she does, just wanted to pay homage to the wonders of recreational legality haha. I wonder what’s worth seeing in a short time here.

nowaypablo  ·  1572 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hubski Virtual Meetup No. 10

Add me to the shout out cloud! I'll be on the road driving from OK to AK so if I don't make it this time I'll be there the next:)

nowaypablo  ·  1624 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Diplomacy: Game Four (or five)

edit: somehow I"m back!

Gang my girlfriend surprised me with a visit this wknd and I've completely foregone the internet for days trying to entertain her :P I'm very sorry for forgetting. Thanks for the kick-ass game though.