This was the last time I had the displeasure of even briefly considering an economist's prediction:
For the same book, Kevin Hassett, a senior adviser to Trump and the chair of the CEA until last year, said: "…our job is to not be political but to provide objective analysis." But that sentiment seemed to disappear last week when the CEA posted a chart on Twitter which showed the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US, declining now but still well over 1,000 per day, and model projections of future fatalities.
Most of the models showed significant deaths extending into the summer. But one projection, inexplicably, showed a smoothed curve —called in the technical lingo a cubic fit — with deaths disappearing by mid-May. That last curve did not belong on the chart. It was the wrong approach to understanding the data and has no basis in the underlying epidemiological issues.
Disingenuous to the point of obviously trying to influence public perception, just to benefit oneself or one's friends. Seems like a pattern, huh?
edit: lol it actually wouldn't surprise me if that particular cubic fit showed negative deaths in the more-distant future, if you were to expand the plot axis/timeline. Something tells me that it'd be entirely fruitless to try to chase this down. The idea that these types of people publicly disclose the assumptions that went into their (third order Taylor Series?) expansion fit of the data, or even the weights of the resulting coefficients is hilarious.
I've recently been informed multiple times that, well, actually, inflation is notably lower in the U.S. compared to many other (sometimes the word "western" appears here) countries, and that seems to not really be true.
Magically ignoring inflation, the U.S. economy reportedly looks pretty good right now, using traditional metrics, right? Almost no one in the establishment seems bothered that it's becoming impossible for millenials to afford a house and build equity, and how that will even further shift wealth accumulation towards 'inherited' instead of 'earned', as the 'Boomers croak. Almost no one in the establishment is calling for a minimum wage increase to account for the current wave of inflation, much less to account for the lower inflation rates of the last like forty fucking years. And shockingly few people in the establishment are bothered by how closely wealth tracks with Whiteness, and that the disparity's getting worse. (edit: it might not be getting worse, maybe a bit better, but is still atrocious)
Meanwhile, SPLC is like... 'uh-oh, guys!'.
Whether it's the social fabric becoming dangerously frayed, a pandemic, or global warming, the business class and their economists need you at your desks, forklifts, and steering wheels up until the moment of total system collapse. I love that Peter Thiel has already bought a citizenship in New Zealand. Truly the perfect example. I bet he can trash their country much faster, after warming up here in the USA.