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b_b

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hubskier for: 4596 days

When not in real life, I spend my time here.

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“This” is whatever hypothesis you’ve tied your success to.

Some of the issues I’ve discussed above maybe are unique to pharma, where I work. And in no way did I mean to imply that academia isn’t a good career populated with almost all good people. Just that the incentive structure, which can affect good people too, is such that it encourages putting one’s best data forward, say. This is obviously a ton harder in a hugely collaborative gazillion dollar field such as the one you work in…Lot of small time scientists work sort of on an island.

Also, the bigger the claim, the easier it is to poke holes in. The superconductor thing reminds of this thing that happened maybe 10 years ago where a researcher in my field claimed she could make induced stem cells by just bathing them in acid in some specific way. Took like 5 minutes to rip to pieces. Some people really want that paper in Nature.

For real don’t mind me though. I’m just kind of a jaded asshole because of some experiences I’ve had when my (very well connected and basically bulletproof) data didn’t align with the big lab’s big money hypothesis. They’ll skewer you.

b_b  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What’s the Price of a Childhood Turned Into Content?

I've flipped out on multiple family members, including my own wife, for posting pictures of my kids on whatever site (not for money or "influence", whateverthefuck that is, but just for sharing). I know it's de rigeuer in today's world, but I feel like we don't let kids get tattoos, because tattoos are forever. Well the internet is forever, too, right? It's really shitty to let a kid do that to themselves, let alone to make that choice for them.

I'm always shocked by the laziness that goes into made up data. Like here you have multiples of a number. In bio you often see stretched or inverted images that are portrayed as individual replicates, say. You'd think that if you were going to go to the level of just plain cheating that you'd put your back into it. There are statistical tests, e.g., that can tell you with pretty good precision whether numbers are random, say, or whether a large group of numbers is spaced in a way you'd expect a natural set of data to be spaced (e.g., the frequency of small numbers increases with the size of the number). I doubt it would be that hard to fake a set of data if you reverse engineered it to pass the standard battery of smell-test statistics. But you never see that. Or maybe only the dumb ones get caught?

I'm gonna push back on that idea a little. Firstly, this was an academic scandal, with an eye toward industry. But more to the point, I have worked in academia and private industry both fairly extensively, and I've found that private industry generally does more rigorous science (though often not as exciting). The caveat is that I work in biotech, so I don't know how that relates to physics. I would imagine it's not so different, though, because the incentive structures dictate everyone's behavior (but to be fair, biology experiments are notoriously opaque and hard to reproduce even when the hypothesis is rock solid, so there's a lot more room for obfuscation than in a harder experimental science).

In academia the financial incentives come from grants, which generally result from publications, which generally result from high impact discoveries. So the incentive boils down to "make high impact discovery."

In industry the incentive is to move product, and moving product doesn't happen if the product doesn't work. The product won't work if the science behind it is faulty. So the incentive is to weed out bad science, and only pursue the most reproducible work. This leads to a relative lack of risk taking, but generally more faith that what comes out of it is solid.

I can tell you from years of experience that the attitude in academia is "defend this at all costs" and in industry it's "kill this at all costs". Totally different mentalities. But again this is biotech. I realize fully that not all industries follow this trend, especially, say, venture-backed tech. I would imagine that the academic side of tech is way more upstanding than the industry side, but that's a hunch based on little-to-no first hand knowledge.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

So here’s the problem they faced in a nut shell: They absolutely had no basis to countermand the fact finding of the lower courts. I.e., if the lower courts found it was an insurrection and Trump didn’t really even try to say he wasn’t. At least that wasn’t the main thrust of his argument. And they really didn’t want to entertain that bullshit about the president not being an officer. So where do they go? Clearly, Roberts and crew weren’t comfortable with where the libs were, which is “states don’t get to say, but someone does”. I goes they felt they had to invent something, and the something turned out to be section 5. Ok. It’s a stretch that you don’t have to be a legal scholar to see though, but the problem is that they were all just uncomfortable with the facts. They were too afraid to just apply the law, because the consequences were too much to face. So now we have a wack-ass precedent that could stand for 150 years. Insane.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Palestine and the power of language

Don’t you have a hot wife and a cool job? Not sure what else you’re waiting for. Democracy? It’s so abstract.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Pretty devastating review of the ruling from David French.

The money quote is: "Through inaction alone, Congress can effectively erase part of the 14th Amendment." I've been following French's and some other writers' interpretation of section 3 in advance of this ruling, and while I've read pieces that have been persuasive in both directions, not a single one imagined this as the outcome. This may be a new low for this court, and they have a lot of hits on that chart.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Supreme court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just died

Very prescient, in retrospect.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Thank you for definitively reminding me why I avoid such debates on the internet. I'll stop now.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Right, but think about the ambassador's words for a minute. Early in the war there was a lot of handwringing about Israeli soldiers shooting up a hospital. The fact is, when you suspect that there's a weapons cache inside a hospital, you try to enter it. When people start shooting at you from inside, then you shoot your way in. The trouble is that Hamas freely admits to using hospitals, schools and mosques as places to shield fighters and materiel. That's the context around what she's saying there. It's shitty, but you still have to leap a giant chasm to get from there to genocide (there's a good reason that Arabs can be doctors, lawyers and cabinet ministers in Israel, but Jews (not Israelis) aren't even allowed to be tourists inside many Muslim countries). From October 7 onward, Hamas could have saved every single Gazan civilian by offering an unconditional surrender. They haven't and they won't. That's on them.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

You're arguing against a strawman. Nowhere did I say that the Netanyahu government is correct in their prosecution of the war. I said it's not a genocide, because it's aims aren't genocidal, they're statecraft. Pointing out how bad conditions are there isn't a counterargument.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Most of the narrative around the formation of Israel is not grounded in history, unfortunately. My guess is that you're unaware that net migration into the area that is now Israel between the beginning of the Zionist movement and 1948 was far higher among Arabs than Jews. That's due to the fact that (a) only Bedouins lived there until the Jews started irrigating the land, which suddenly made a backwater shithole arable for the first time in centuries, and (b) the British really didn't want to cede territory to the Jews, the "problem" of which they had already "solved" long before the rest of Europe.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

No one in government is more deserving of impeachment that Thomas, not least because of his obvious perjury during his confirmation hearings. I just think no one wants to cross that Rubicon.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

But it's the same basic calculation there as in any total war, which is that your objective is complete capitulation of the enemy, knowing full well that a cease fire only delays and probably exacerbates the killing. In the case of Germany, Japan or Hamas, an unconditional surrender is the endgame. That differentiates it completely from other interethnic conflicts that were not about surrender but annihilation. The reason I'm hesitant to weigh in is that if I say, "this isn't genocide", it doesn't mean I think there's no moral culpability or that the objectives couldn't be satisfied in a less awful way. Maybe they can. I don't know the situation on the ground any better than you do. It's just not a genocide, no matter how people want to remember it, because the aim is the elimination of a government, not of a people.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Could be a dissent or could actually be a concurring opinion. I think (stress think) that even Alito wouldn't argue that GOP presidents are above the law completely and totally, but he'll try to argue that in this case it didn't reach the level where immunity is forfeited. They'll whine about free speech or something totally beside the point.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Been trying my damndest not to get drawn into the Gaza shit, but there's no reasonable definition of "genocide" that applies here. One can argue about how they're prosecuting the war, but they're fighting a government who refuses to surrender. Today's Left would have accused the US of genocide in Germany and Japan in WW2. It's full and pure nonsense. In war, people die and it's sad. It doesn't make it genocide. And it's insulting to actual genocides that have taken place.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

    I have also realized, maybe about a year ago or so, that he'll never go to prison, no matter what. But a conviction on the J6 stuff might finally be enough to tank him in the election.

I think it's already tanking him. Sorry to play the perennial optimist, but if you look at the recent primaries, Trump has underperformed his polling, which I would argue is already really bad for an incumbent, by at least 5-10 points (so keep that in mind when you read he's "up" by 5 points or whatever on Biden, especially since incumbents typically poll badly early in the election year). His campaign may be inevitable, as we continually hear, but it's also a complete fucking catastrophe from a X's and O's point of view.

Meanwhile, the "uncommitted" vote we also have to endure endless commentary about actually wasn't that much higher than Obama's share of uncommitted in 2012, whereas total Biden votes dwarfed what Obama got. Basically what that says is that even though a lot of people in Michigan wanted to express dissatisfaction, way, way more people wanted to counter that narrative.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

Last possible slot, because they decide their docket in the fall, and adding an additional case requires a time slot in which to hear the case. It's just procedure. I think you're looking for zebras here.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

If I remember right, Trump tried to appeal directly to SCOTUS off the bat, correct? My guess is that Roberts wanted the weight of having district and appellate court opinions on his side before making a judgement. He cares about process, and he was probably terrified that a rushed judgement would just create more chaos, especially when Thomas and probably Alito voted in favor of Trump. They are less likely to go against the majority of the Court now that they would have to refute two absolutely bulletproof opinions. My guess is that Roberts really, really wants this case to be about the President, and not Trump per se. And in that case, it's his judgement that it should be considered with the full weight of their normal process without reference to what's happening in the world at this precise moment. Just a guess, but I think probably a good one.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

So let me start by saying that I think SCOTUS is for the most part a group of a few decent thinkers and a slew of partisan hacks. Not going to argue otherwise. However, I actually think that they had to take the immunity case. They didn't get to test the BS about "If the president does it, it's not illegal" back in the 70s because of the Nixon pardon. They haven't had an occasion to do so since, so even though the lower courts basically laughed Trump out of court, I still think in the long run it's incumbent on Roberts to lay the smack down for any future presidents who claim to be above the law. Which is silly, I know, because the facile imagination one needs to possess to show how ridiculous that claim is basically makes it self-evident to anyone who isn't comatose (looking at you Justice Thomas). But still. Two president-crooks have tried to make the claim, so it needs to be addressed.

As for leaving office in 2029, I think it's a misreading of the tea leaves. First of all, the president doesn't get to decide whether to leave office. More or less, the military does (which hopefully it will never come to that). But all the military officers I know (not tons but a few) are not in favor of dictatorship. Seems to be part of the coursework at Westpoint or something. But beyond that, Trump is going to pardon himself on day 1, and there's no way that works itself through the courts until after his term ends, and then we're talking probably another two years. So 2031 best care scenario? He'll be 85. Nobody is sending an 85 yo to jail, let alone an 85 yo former president. Hell, he'll probably have clogged his arteries so badly by that point that he'll be fortunate to not be full tits-up. So while I don't look forward to 4 more years of nonsense, I also think that the story will write its own end in a way.

b_b  ·  20 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The New "Over the Top" Secret Plan on How Fascists Could Win in 2024

I admittedly stick mostly to big news pubs and whatever filters its way to Hubski. That said, I'm sort of in awe about the narrative around the Trump-Haley cage fight that's going on in the primaries. (Full disclosure, today is Michigan's primary, and I voted for Haley, though I'll vote for Sleepy Joe this fall.) The media narrative continues to be some version of "Look how bad Trump is trouncing her...20 pt loss...what the hell is she still doing in the race?" Whereas my reading of the data are more akin to "holy shit this incumbent is losing 40% of the vote." 40%!. That's a really big number that can't at all be totally explained by people like me (more or less reliable democratic voters) switching sides to vote for her. In my opinion, Trump is operating from a position of extreme weakness, and if it were any other incumbent not garnering 40% of votes, they would have thrown in the towel long ago.

I'm not saying he doesn't have a chance to win in the fall. I made that prognostication back in 2016 to my own dismay. But his chances are slimmer than they were then. He's this unpopular and hasn't had to face a barrage of political advertisements that repeat over and over footage of him saying "fight like hell for your country" superimposed on the Pelosi desk shitters, and "I'll tell Russia to do whatever the hell they want" superimposed on imaged of bombed schools in Ukraine. The ads write themselves at this point, and if there's one thing I'm sure of, Trump will continue to shoot himself in the foot at every opportunity.

b_b  ·  32 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: OpenAI's Sora

    Sora is an AI model that can create realistic and imaginative scenes from text instructions.

Not to be a pedant, but by definition it can't create imaginative anything because implicit in that adjective is, well, imagination.

b_b  ·  38 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI

He's trying to buy back WeWork, so your dreams may. come true.

b_b  ·  38 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI

The best part is that embedded in the ask is a plan to invent a consumer grade fusion reactor. I for real can’t determine if this article is a joke.

b_b  ·  38 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Sam Altman Seeks Trillions of Dollars to Reshape Business of Chips and AI

For sure. It’s like they’re actively trying to make him the new Elon Musk.