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b_b

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following: 113
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hubskier for: 3157 days

When not in real life, I spend my time here.

recent comments, posts, and shares:
b_b  ·  6 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Wait Trump hates Voice of America now?

You'd probably have to scan the recent Hannity archives to figure out what he's actually mad about. Trump is even mad at WSJ now for not covering his ratings with enough zeal. Sean's his only media friend left.

b_b  ·  10 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage

I haven't read MacMillan, but I have read a number of books by David Fromkin, who broadly makes the same point that the interwar years should more accurately be read as a ceasefire. Specifically, his book A Peace to End All Peace is a look at how badly they fucked the Mideast in the negotiations to carve up the Ottoman Empire. Really fascinating how badly they fucked the aftermath of the war in basically all aspects.

b_b  ·  10 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 6.6 Million More Americans File For Unemployment As Coronavirus Keeps Economy Shut

Clearly we should have had a recession two years ago, but Trump decided to pour gasoline on the fire rather than water (tax cuts, firing the Fed chief, threatening the next one, etc) to keep the party going until, I guess, sometime after Nov 2020. My only point was that for professionals who can and are working from home, money just isn't being spent at the rate they would normally spend it, and there should be, therefore, a glut of cash for many people when all's said and done. Hopefully that will make Jane and John Doe go out and buy the crap that they put off buying for half a year, which could light the demand spark. Could be wishful thinking, but I totally agree with you that shit should and must hit the fan, financially speaking.

b_b  ·  10 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word

    So. Back to Jose and his order being snarfed up by "someone".

My assumption reading the piece is that individual orders aren't being swallowed up so much as a warehouse has a stock and tells the customer so. And then sometime between an order being placed and fulfilled the feds use their power under the defense whatever it's called act to say, "All your stock of such-and-such item belongs to us," meaning that Jose's supply and everyone else who ordered from that supplier is gone in an instant, rather than any specific order being "redirected." Just an assumption.

b_b  ·  13 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 6.6 Million More Americans File For Unemployment As Coronavirus Keeps Economy Shut

I suppose one can only hope that they will bounce back a lot faster than they did in either of those two cases. I think the best case scenario is that people who are working from home have a lot of stored up savings that they will then spend in a torrent once they're allowed to do so. Hopefully the pent up demand will cause a huge amount of consumer spending. This is not based on reality or analysis--purely my speculation.

b_b  ·  13 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage

I would argue that you can be a good quartermaster and a bad general, but you can't be a bad quartermaster and a good general. WWI basically ended when the 5 years of attrition was stalled because the blockade of Germany starved their population to the point of giving up. France and England actually enjoyed better standards of living during the war (in places that weren't battle ravaged), because trade with the US went through the roof, whereas Germany became destitute due to their only port being blockaded by the British. The war was effectively over when Germany lost some decisive Naval battles, but like all Lost Causes it took them years to admit it to themselves. (For comparison, Grant argues that the Civil War was won at the Battle of Chattanooga, which if memory serves was in fall 1863, since after that point he had effectively bisected the South.)

I haven't read much about Napoleon but it seems that he probably made the same mistake of trying to take Russia, which extended his lines way longer than they could sustain. Noe we have a President whose knowledge of history doesn't even go as far back as Pearl Harbor trying to coordinate a logistics operation that has a wartime feel to it. It's not going well.

b_b  ·  14 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage

    Logistics.

Grant's memoirs is like half just him describing how many miles of telegraph wire he laid per battle and where he made his troops bivouac.

But practical aspects be damned. By far the best thing about this piece is hearing industry people describe in industry terms the difference between commercial- and consumer-grade toilet paper.

b_b  ·  14 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word

Nothing is too weird to believe anymore, which sucks because it leave a lot of room for conspiracy theorists to thrive (even more than they have been since 9/11). We should be putting so many more resources into testing. Society isn't going to be open for business until the average person can get tested immediately, for free. I'm actually an optimist, despite all the reasons not to be. I think there are a lot of good biotech companies out there working on this problem. They should all get cost-plus, unlimited contracts to do the work as long as it takes (hey, if Halliburton could charge the military a 10% fee on supplying $500 monogrammed hand towels or whatever, why can't Thermo get some action to actually do something useful). My belief is that as soon as test and trace capabilities are up and running, we can live a lot freer. Maybe not like the old days (you know, like three weeks ago), but pretty good.

b_b  ·  14 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word

I honestly can't tell if you're being serious

b_b  ·  15 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word

All comes down to a complete and total failure of leadership. I think that most states and health systems would be fine with the Feds seizing all medical supplies if they had any confidence in the Feds' plan to then distribute the supplies. I work for a very large health system, and we get basically everything we want and need all the time. That's great for us, but it's not so great for the community hospitals who don't have the purchasing clout of a multi-billion dollar teaching hospital. If Trump could get out of his own way (literally impossible, I know), I think it's a good idea for a coordinated federal response. As is, I don't think anyone would be surprised if we found out that FEMA was just giving the shit to Don Jr. to put on his eBay page.

b_b  ·  15 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Hospitals say feds are seizing masks and other coronavirus supplies without a word

    nor has the administration detailed how it decides which supplies to seize and where to reroute them.

Wild, out-of-the-blue guess: They're not going to places that have governors named Inslee, Whitmer, Newsom or Cuomo.

b_b  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bernie Sanders drops out of 2020 race

    accomplished even less

Please elaborate

b_b  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bernie Sanders drops out of 2020 race

Bernie lost because he's a grumpy do-nothing who is hated by his own colleagues and who says nice things about Castro. This isn't a mystery about voter turnout, just like it wasn't last time.

b_b  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Biden's first fundraiser was hosted by union-busters

I like Joe. I think he's had an undeniably good political career, imperfect but with a good head and heart. I'd be happy voting for a 10 years younger Biden. But my chief complaint with him is his seeming senility, although I guess when your rivals are Sanders and Trump it's not much of a handicap. I just pray that he appoints some really good cabinet leaders (if there were every a question of whether leadership matters, I think covid has settled that debate for us). Would love to see a secretary of treasury Warren (in my dreams, I'm sure), and a secretary of labor Yang (also probably unlikely).

One thing Trump did that may have tipped the scales for him was the very unorthodox move of naming a supreme Court shortlist. It made him look like a moron at the time, but it was a genius political move. I think Biden could do the same with cabinet secretaries. It would bring a level of excitement to his campaign for all the disaffected people who were big supporters of specific candidates. This was a very parochial type of primary, and I think that while that looks like a weakness, it could be turned into a strength. Also not sure that Joe is creative enough to think outside the box, however.

b_b  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Seen in Detroit

I remember the Times did a story about every state's tax structure. If remember every single state had a regressive tax overall, but Washington was either the worst or close to it. Lots of liberal states were toward the bottom because they all have excise taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, sodas, etc.

b_b  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions

I was being tongue-in-cheek. Well sort of. The corollary of the quote is that a model is only as good as its assumptions. And when the assumption is that if you're X feet from an infectious person you're unlikely to be offered, but 2X or 3X turns out to be more accurate than you really don't have a useful model, and the bitch of it is that in this case "useful" means "safe". It's hard to evaluate whether the current PPE recommendations have been working, because we don't have good data about compliance. But certainly the rate of infection of healthcare workers seems high in some areas, so looking at model adjustments is probably justified.

b_b  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions

Obviously not a novel observation, but the president has been unhelpful at best in this saga. But I'm not going to let myself off the hook either. I've been basically wrong at every turn since the beginning, definitely in the "that can't happen here" camp. But as Keynes said, "When the facts change, I change my mind."

I'm about to start spending considerable time in a large hospital that is inundated with severe patients, and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't apprehensive. But I feel I have to do it. One of our nurses died yesterday, and I owe it to her and all my other colleagues to do what I can. So wish me luck with the FDA. Hoping they greenlight me to start manufacturing drug ASAP. Then it's in God's hands (metaphorically).

b_b  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Stop Social Distancing. Start Distant Socializing

It's funny. Both my parents live hundreds of miles from me, so we normally only socialize distantly. But lately instead of talking every week or two, we've been talking nearly every day. It's actually bringing us together more, which is a very small silver lining.

b_b  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Stop Social Distancing. Start Distant Socializing

    My daughter has a weekly "baking" play date. Don't worry, they're making cupcakes etc. not smoking weed.

We should start a weekly "baking" play date :D. I think the dispensaries are still open.

b_b  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: I built this room and decided I should attempt to appreciate the work I did.

So the answer is just buy cheap and fix as you go?

b_b  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: I built this room and decided I should attempt to appreciate the work I did.

You know any reputable national dealers or refurbished ones? Just googling gives an impressive array of sellers, many of whom have tons of negative reviews that I have no idea are real of fake. Also, I'm 5'8", so I'd think a B, but no basis on which to judge.

Edit: also I just realized this is a really old thread. I Hubski searched "Aeron" to pick up a conversation from the other day, and just clicked the first link!

b_b  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: In other news, Rich gotta Rich

Thanks!

b_b  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: In other news, Rich gotta Rich

Yeah, for real. It took me like a day to get a scratch in the crystal. They also have this cool looking but moronic design on the chronoscope buttons (if there's a technical term for them, I don't know it) where they're wide at the very end and very skinny on the shaft. This makes them get caught on your sleeve pretty much every time you move your arm.

The thing I think I like about Breitling is that they're like driving a $50,000 pickup truck with leather interior. It says, "Yes I can do a lot, but will I? Probably not."

b_b  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: In other news, Rich gotta Rich

    Whatever you do, don't run the numbers on a birkin.

Thanks, I won't.

I will say that I ogle several watches from afar, though I doubt I'll even pull the trigger unless I become significantly richer. I have a Junghans Max Bill, which is really pretty, but basically a piece crap in terms of durability. I also have a Seiko 7S26, which is less pretty, but way more durable. I have a boner for a Breitling Chronomat, but please tell me how cheap it is so I'm not tempted every time I see a deal on one on Crown and Caliber xD

b_b  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: March 25, 2020

I bought skullcap like 3 weeks ago :)

I just had a call from a doc asking me if I wanted to manufacture some experimental drug (EV-based) to treat severe patients. It took me like 1 second to say yes. Now I'm gonna spend the rest of the day trying to write an emergency research IND.

b_b  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: In other news, Rich gotta Rich

Sure was. Thanks.