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b_b

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hubskier for: 3322 days

When not in real life, I spend my time here.

recent comments, posts, and shares:
b_b  ·  10 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Supreme court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just died

Is Bork the Original Sin of the Supreme Court fights? Conservatives love to paint that saga as the beginning of the era where the Court matters more than the president during a presidential election, but I'm not sure that that isn't revisionist history. I base this on the fact that (1) Arlen Fucking Specter was against the nomination. Yes, he switched sides 20 years later, but he wasn't exactly Che Guevara. And (2), Kennedy, Souter, Breyer, and Ginsburg all had unanimous or near unanimous assent from the Senate. Roberts was the first to face serious dissent, with Dems splitting down the middle, and Alito then becoming the first in a string who were basically opposed along party lines, which of course eventually degenerated into the Merrick Garland debacle. So I don't think there's a lot we can learn from the Bork saga, at least not as much as conservatives like to imagine. The dude was literally on record as saying that Brown v Board of Ed was wrongly decided (although I guess he hedged by saying that it was morally correct, but legally unsound or some bullshit--but what do you expect from a guy who thought that the Saturday Night Massacre was just a regular day at the office).

You are probably right that this is the crown Jewell of Moscow Mitch's ride. He's sold out everything to achieve this moment, and now he has it. I think the joke will be on him in the end, however, because history teaches us that the Court moves with the American people, albeit at a slower pace. There's no situation in which the Court can keep a firm conservative grip on the law while 80 to 90% of the people are moving in the opposite direct. Even Roberts, the person whose SCOTUS career started in a partisan logjam and who therefore probably has the right to hate a lot of Dems, has shown that he hears people and will bend to popular will. I'm as annoyed at this moment as any liberal, but I am also optimistic that the long game may have worn itself out already.

b_b  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Supreme court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just died

I think in the end, McConnell cares about himself and but much else, so he'll do whatever is best for him. There are a lot of potential scenarios, but the only thing I think we can bet on is that nothing he's said or done in the past has any bearing on what he'll do in the future. He's pure nihilist.

b_b  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Supreme court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg just died

Mitch will have a vote on a nominee by the end of October, tops. He is a demon.

Edit: Actually, on second thought, maybe he won't do that. Supreme court was a driving force behind Trump's victory in 2016. Dinner they already have a solid majority, maybe it doesn't matter that much, so instead of filling it right away they could make it a campaign issue again.

b_b  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 16, 2020

On the bright side, there are definitely worse places in FL than Clearwater. At least there are really nice beaches there, if you're into that kind of thing. Also the Dali museum isn't far (St. Pete, I think). I'm no fan of FL, but if I had to live in FL I'd live in Miami. If I couldn't live in Miami I guess it'd be somewhere in the Tampa Bay region. Maybe you can become a hockey fan...The Lighting are playing in the Cup Finals starting tomorrow!

b_b  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 16, 2020

Whaaaaaaat?! I'm even excited for her.

That's sort of weird, too, because you'd think that ebooks would be the most efficient in a classroom setting. I don't like sitting down to read on a Kindle, but I would have really liked it in school. Who wants to lug 15 lbs worth of books to and from school every day? I guess it's a resource problem??? Still a Kindle fire costs like $80. Probably would be cheaper to go that route in the long run.

b_b  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: We Can Solve the Coronavirus-Test Mess Now—If We Want To

It's a numbers game. There won't be any super spreader events if sufficient numbers of people are vaccinated. We just have to trust that the vast majority of people are going to act in their own best interest, which in this case is also in society's interest. Of course, convincing people what their best interest is is often challenging, no doubt.

I can't even read this. I got to the first bolus of photographs and stopped. It's hard to believe this is America. Every time I think I can't despise Florida any now than I already do...

It's the state over spent the most time in next to my home state and every time I go I vow to never go again (and I only go to the "nice" parts). Unfortunately my mom lives there from November to April so it's difficult to avoid.

b_b  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: We Can Solve the Coronavirus-Test Mess Now—If We Want To

Vaccine records are kept by States in which the vaccine was administered (it's very easy to call your Heath dept to get your complete vaccination record going back to when you were born), so it's conceivable that if necessary the government could say something like, "You can't use public services X, Y, or Z without getting this vaccine." They do that with schools to varying degrees and it works well in places where they enforce it (i.e. not on the West coast). But I don't think it would come to that. I think that the vast majority of people will see a vaccine (provided it's safe and effective) as being in their own selfish interest and therefore get it voluntarily. I will. Most people I've talked to will. We all just want to get back to normal, and if that's the path, people will take it. We don't need 100%.

b_b  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 9, 2020

    I just got my Uphold account activity. Someone donated 0.2 ETH to Hubski on 8/20. To Whom it May Concern, thank you. We also get about $10/mo worth of BAT from people using Brave and/or tipping. That makes a difference. https://hubski.com/donate

wasoxygen and I placed a wager in late 2016 about how long Trump would serve in office for. Our bet was (still is) $1 per week, with me owing $1 for every week for Trump remains and him owing $1 for every week of his term that Trump is out of office. The proceeds go entirely to Hubski. My thinking at the time was that he would resign or be impeached with a year, tops. Now I think the only way he doesn't finish is if he loses the election and gets Pence to pardon him after he resigns in the transition period. Unlikely, so look for a $208 donation from me on Jan 20.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 'Bad Optics' Or Something More? Moderna Executives' Stock Sales Raise Concerns

I don't think that's indicative of that at all. Firstly, if their CMO knows anything about how the trial is going, then moderna is in way bigger legal trouble than some insider trading stuff.

Secondly, loook at their situation. They've had a multi billion valuation for years with nothing on the market. They get a contract for a vaccine, and get a couple billion out of the feds. BILLIONS IN NON-DILUTIVE FUNDING. Think about that. Then the markets react by pushing they stock even higher, to the point where it was 15x what it was before the announcement.

Now let's digress for a moment to Gilead. They cured Hep C. It put them on top of the world for a couple years... Then their stock went to shit after they cured everyone. They fixed a problem no one could fix for millennia and it fucked them up the ass. Such is the stock market. And that was for a drug they could charge $80,000 a pop for or something, netting them like $12B per year.

Now back to moderna. They can't charge a premium on the drug per the rules of the government's funding (at least not to Americans--not sure about anyone else). And they know even if they could this problem is going away in 6mo to a year after vaccine approval, in which case they're going back to $6/share like really, really quickly.

So while I don't like it on its face, it's probably the rational thing to do.

b_b  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

You're pointing to a much bigger problem than one that is covid specific, and that's the trouble with retrospective studies generally, and small retrospective studies in particular. Retrospective studies area great for a singular purpose, which is to find interesting questions to test on a prospective study. Being that they are close to worthless. And yet...everyone uses them to make a point. Typically this is confined to advocacy groups trying to advance an agenda. However, lately it's gotten really bad because of the stakes and the politics. Every loves was quick to point out how shitty the Henry Ford hydroxychloroquine study was (and they were correct), but apparently just because the president was satisfied. When it comes to making a point we agree with however, the ends clearly justify the means. Science is hard. Data interpretation is hard. They're are no easy answers here, so we need to always keep an open mind about what the data say, and not what our favorite or least favorite politicians or media sources say. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes.

b_b  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Russia COVID-19 vaccine induced antibody response in early trials

Encouraging, but I really hope that they conduct their phase 3 in a believable way. I.e. open to scrutiny, good clinical practice, etc. I have little faith that wee, let alone they, can do that at this point.

b_b  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pandemic. Politics. Economics. Quarantine. It’s all hitting me...

I'm spending too much money on a trainer right now who has a setup in his garage and driveway. It's money very well spent. Get your heart rate up to 140bpm for an hour, build some muscle, and get all your energy out (and I go with my good friend, so it's like hanging out, too). It's not as good as tennis, but it's made this spring and summer 1000x more enjoyable. I would play tennis a lot more, but my main partner lives 35 minutes away, and his schedule isn't flexible. So we're always trying to squeeze into the narrow window of after the kids are in bed but before sundown...that works ok in June but is pretty shitty in September.

b_b  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pandemic. Politics. Economics. Quarantine. It’s all hitting me...

It's never comforting to think about the fact that other people have it worse. They do, but that doesn't make your feelings invalid. Tennis is great. Hoping to play this weekend myself.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: James Baldwin Discusses Racism : Dick Cavett Show 1969

You saw that doc?! Oliver edited and scored it.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: My Welcome to Hubski for hardtaco and how most journalists are hacks...

Amen. I have two now (and that's all I'll ever have unless I have a religious conversion and adopt), and I feel like all I do is chase kids. If I had the ability to function on 5 or 6 hours of sleep consistently I think I'd feel less overwhelmed by the experience, because at least it'd afford some leisure time. But having two toddlers isn't simple a nonstop gong show. Any more than two just seems like pure punishment.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Amazon Warehouse tour

Just saw this post because of a link, so sorry to revive a dead thread. But I've been thinking a lot recently about how whoever comes up with a logistically workable reusable shipping box system is going to make a fuckload of money once carbon cap and trade is a thing. Basically they'd be manufacturing CO2 credits. Tesla sells their ZeV credits to FCA and already makes a lot of money off it. It's going to be a growth business, but I thin it will take a shitload of capital up front, so probably only Amazon can pull it off.

b_b  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A closer look at the Covid-19 Bradykinin hypothesis

Within a few days of this study being posted there was already one trial registered using icatibant (bradykinin inhibitor) for covid. Hopefully the results will come back in a timely fashion. The downside is that it's combo treatment with remdesivir and it's an open label trial, so I'm not sure it will be easy to interpret.

b_b  ·  19 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: We Don’t Know How to Warn You Any Harder. America is Dying.

The missile gap fiasco is its own special saga. According to Ellsberg, who had access to the raw intelligence, during the Kennedy campaign, the CIA, navy, the army, and the air force each had their own estimates of Soviet ICBM numbers, which ranged from 100 to 1000. Whereas the actual number was known exactly, and that number was 4. F.O.U.R. He doesn't assert, if I recall correctly, that Kennedy knew that number, although he may have.

b_b  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Christian Crowdfunding Site Raising Money For Kenosha Killer Kyle Rittenhouse

Sort of. The word "Christian" has a few meanings here in the States. There is a subset of people, the people who raised or dear OB, who think that it means, roughly, "one who rejects modernity, believes the Earth is 6,000 years old, and hellfire and damnation are nigh." These people make up the majority of white nationalists.

b_b  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Playlist for Parents

Lil, I wish you and your family all the best. Things may not work out how you want them to, but they will work out. I am thinking of you.

-Ben

b_b  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Florida mosquitoes: 750 million genetically modified insects to be released

    What could go wrong?

Can't tell if you're asking rhetorically or not, but I genuinely don't know. I tried to read a bit more, and it looks like most of the gripes are trivial and boil down to "don't play god." I don't know where mosquitoes fit in the food chain, but they are probably among the world's leading killers. Malaria kills 3000 children per day {pdf warning}, so whatever fears people have of GMOs better compare favorably with that.