That's part of it, but dude, I told my parents on Christmas how it'd go down on the 6th. It was obvious to anyone reading Trump's Twitter and other absurdly prominent social media postings.
So I'm either a better sauce of intel than the most powerful nations' intel community, or there was some shit goin' on behind the scenes involving intentional disregard of a very real and likely threat to the US congress, from the top down. In a shit-goin'-on-behind-scenes administration, yeah. And no, I'm not comparable to the entire US IC (what a terribly unnecessary sentence).
Honestly, though, Trump blew it when he failed to use the very protests he incited as an excuse to declare martial law. He might have tried, though, and we just haven't heard about it yet. I'd give 70/30 odds for/against, but wager nothing. Eh, approaching this like a betting game isn't for me.