a thoughtful web.
Share good ideas and conversation.   Login or Take a Tour!
b_b's profile
b_b

x 485

stats
following: 114
followed tags: 11
followed domains: 3
badges given: 73 of 110
hubskier for: 3488 days

When not in real life, I spend my time here.

recent comments, posts, and shares:
b_b  ·  22 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Long COVID patients say they feel better after getting vaccinated

    I've gone from running once a week and feeling like hammered shit to running twice a week and suffering zero ill effects. Anecdata of one.

Anecdotes are only derided or promoted by people who don't understand them. They're very useful for hypothesis framing, and that's not nothing--often coming up with the right question is one of the toughest parts of doing science well. Without a hypothesis a scientific study is pretty difficult to run in any meaningful way. I think it was Asimov who said that the greatest phrase in science isn't "Eureka", it's, "Gee, that's funny."

But also, I'd like to echo other sentiments here, which is that either way, I'm glad you're on the mend.

b_b  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: "The Last Thing I Do" -- Song I made tonight

    I love writing up-beat music and juxtaposing it with dark lyrics.

Total John Lennon thing. "Run for Your Life" is such a happy little pop tune!

The strat was such a good buy. I've even been doing some recording with it recently. However, now that I have the solid body I've always wanted, I've decided I'm also going to buy the hollow body I've always wanted. I'm in the process of getting Gibson to make me a white ES-335, which I'm going to deck out with all gold hardware to make it look kind of like a White Falcon. Just trying to negotiate whether they'll do block inlays for little to no upcharge. The stock is dots, which look cool, too. But if I'm gonna spend that much, you know, why not do it how I want?

b_b  ·  4 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: "The Last Thing I Do" -- Song I made tonight

This is a great little tune, but I can't tell if the lyrics are ironic or sincere or both, or just saying stuff out loud just to say it, since you can say things in song that you can't say in conversation.

Today. Maybe not tomorrow. Predicting Mitch's next move is about as easy as predicting the weather.

b_b  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Rush Limbaugh Dead

That is about the kindest way that guy could spin that. I guess you'd figure he's a pretty good human given his company history and all, but I give him credit for his restraint.

b_b  ·  15 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: February 17, 2021

Dismal, really. I can't think of a more underpaid class of professionals. Nothing motivates like money, and I find it ridiculous that politicians, in their never ending quest to "fix" schools, just never propose $80-100k/yr salaries.

b_b  ·  16 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Rush Limbaugh Dead

It's the little things :)

b_b  ·  16 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: This Is a Coup

It seems unlikely. But what he will face is a whole bunch of lawsuits, hopefully including wrongful death from that dead cop's family. At least this will make him poorer and bothered. It's a small (very) consolation that he'll never be left alone.

b_b  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: W.H.O. experts investigating the origin of the virus visit a lab in Wuhan.

Yes, and now compound the problem by (1) making it in Alibek's interest to not find something, and (2) give the Soviets 13 (at least) months to clean up their mess. What do you think they're going to find? I could write the report for them from my home desktop without ever stepping outside, and it would have the same conclusion and be just as informative.

b_b  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fat but fit? (N = 527662)

It's a good cartoon, but I actually think it overcomplicates the issues. They hit the nail on the head in one single panel, which is having to prove that you prespecified what your analysis would be before you did any measurements. That's the only way to ensure that your a priori odds match with your statistical analysis. I also think that publishing per se is less of an issue than grant funding. If every scientist weren't on the hook to pay his/her own salary via federally funded grants, that immense pressure wouldn't exist. There's no university in America who gives a fuck what your publication rate is if you're bringing in a million per year.

b_b  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump predictions recap

Our bet is now settled. I finally just now got around to donating $208 (less fees, so like $206.50) to Hubski. To recap, $208 represented each week of the Trump presidency. As I said tongue-in-cheek below, my instincts were correct that Trump should have been removed from office early. I think the upside is that he's gone, and despite his best efforts, we averted a coup. The downside, however, is that we found out how far someone ca go when they aren't interested in playing by the rules. I think he and Barr and Bannon showed us that one can take a baby step in any direction one wants, and that very few people will object, because it's only a baby step. They realized early on that you can take 5 baby steps instead of one adult step, and that's an easy way to get away with the unthinkable. Had he tried on day 1 some of the bush league moves he was trying by week 200, he would have been out on his ass. But we all prefer appeasement to confrontation, I guess.

b_b  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fat but fit? (N = 527662)

The problem is the studies and the only way to communicate is to weaponize it. So many of these studies are poorly thought out with no real hypothesis testing wherein a bunch of shit is measured and then they find something and report that.

Any study with rats with an n of 6 should elicit skeptical reactions. Any study with humans with an n of 6 should be thrown in the garbage. But that's not what happens. Some journal will publish it, and if the conclusion is provocative enough, some good journal will publish it. Even if the authors are humble enough to say, "This is a small n but it justifies spending some real money to figure out if this is real," that's not how it will be positioned in the press. And then every dickhead with a Science Daily subscription is all of a sudden an expert on immunology.

Same goes for big correlation studies, but they have gravitas because they have lots of people, so they must be true. But they suffer from the same basic problem that there's no controls, no hypotheses, no randomization, etc, etc.

I think we've learned a lot about science literacy in these past 11 months (as if we needed any more data on that topic). And I can't say we've learned anything good.

b_b  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fat but fit? (N = 527662)

I wish people would stop doing big correlation studies. Their utility is so close to 0 that I can't imagine they're almost every worth the money spent on them, and they give bad science journalists high octane fuel for their bullshit engines.

b_b  ·  32 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The day Facebook was diagnosed with Stage 4 terminal cancer

NYT published a pretty devastating indictment of Facebook et al in an op-ed yesterday, too. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/opinion/sunday/facebook-surveillance-society-technology.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

I've always been a Google Fi user, because I like how cheap and portable it is, but I've been thinking about switching back to iPhone recently. Not sure it makes a difference though, given how many other Google products I use every day.

b_b  ·  42 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump just named Woody Guthrie an American Hero... who wrote 'Old Man Trump'!

I wonder if those murderers called for unity the next day.

b_b  ·  42 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Three Mohawks

Was that REM fall tour 94 at the Palace? That was my first concert.

b_b  ·  42 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump just named Woody Guthrie an American Hero... who wrote 'Old Man Trump'!

Love that Kottke is on your list. When he starting collaborating with Mike Gordon it made my life better. That's the only way I can say it.

A local Guthrie favorite up here in MI is one he wrote about the massacre of unionists miners (and minors!) in Calumet. What a fantastic soul.

b_b  ·  43 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump just named Woody Guthrie an American Hero... who wrote 'Old Man Trump'!

When JLo was started singing This Land is Your Land yesterday, I said to my wife, "No way she sings the commie verse; it always gets left out." And she didn't. We love to forget that that song isn't really about how pretty America is. It's about how so much of America's beauty is obscured by private land holdings that bar the rest of us from a full experience.

b_b  ·  45 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump predictions recap

Hey, he got impeached twice! I was wrong but not for lack of trying. I'll square up the bet publicly later today.

b_b  ·  49 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Memo from the Joint Chiefs of Staff

It will be interesting and enlightening to see how the felony murder laws are applied to the mob that murdered a police officer. I haven't seen any commentary on it yet, and I can't figure out why.

The only possible thing it could serve is to encourage people to not turn evidence on him. However, I find that doubtful, because like always, his crimes are in the open for everyone to see them.

You don't have to be charged with a crime to be pardoned for a crime. But you are basically agreeing that you have acted in an illegal way. Nixon, for example, was never charged. Another famous example of just blanket pardoning an entire group of people who engaged in many crimes was Lincoln's pardon of Confederate soldiers. It didn't include specific acts, but basically said that if you were an enlisted man, you're free and clear. I somewhat expected the president to do the same for the Capitol terrorists, but I don't think he will now. I think he will try to blame them as a way of saving his own skin. Pardoning them at this point would show that he's sympathetic. And we all know he will throw anyone, including Don Jr, under the bus to save his own skin.

The state prosecutions for crimes that have been pardoned will get sticky, because I believe you can't be tried on state crimes that are indistinguishable from federal crimes for which you've already been tried. It's a special circumstance of double jeopardy. The state charge has to be different enough to not look like being tried twice for the same act. How a pardon might complicate that is well beyond my knowledge.

I saw a legal scholar address the question of whether a tweet could constitute a pardon. She thought that it probably could, although, obviously, it's never been tested. I was sort of hoping that would happen, but then the Twitter ban happened instead.

The president can pardon groups of people. It doesn't have to be named individuals. He could literally have tweeted, "All the beautiful Patriots at the Capitol are pardoned for insurrection" and it may have been so. The other side of that coin is that accepting a pardon constitutes of guilt, so that could be used against them on other court proceedings.

Very good point. It is also should be moot, because there is probably no place in America besides the White House itself with better security camera coverage. If what they were doing was recon, then it's on tape, and the FBI have already seen it. These people have proven many times over that they're not too stupid to record themselves committing crimes.

What we really, really need is PUBLIC accountability. I want open door hearings about all this stuff. I don't care how sensitive the intelligence is. This was an attack on every American citizen, and we have a right to know what happened and who helped.