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cgod's profile

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recent comments, posts, and shares:
cgod  ·  2 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The War in Ukraine Was Provoked—and Why That Matters to Achieve Peace

Reading The eXile was a decent primer on Russia.

I'm pretty sure you turned me on to it.

cgod  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The War in Ukraine Was Provoked—and Why That Matters to Achieve Peace

With a nod at everything Kb said the real mistake was not getting Ukraine and Gorgia into NATO or some other strong alliance (fuck it make a new one) sooner.

It's an almost iron clad rule that every country views it's natural boarder as the largest historical boarder it ever possessed. It's was inevitable that at some point Russia would start to try and claw back some of it's lost territory, especially when governed by an powerful authoritarian. Ukraine is the cradle of the Russian state, the center may have moved cause the Mongols but traditionally (like seven hundred years worth of tradition) it's all the same place.

Sach's position that this probably would have worked out if we had just played a weaker hand is pretty laughable when you think about who Vladimir Putin is. Sachs is a United Nations lets talk it out like reasonable people guy, Vlad is a Realpolitik guy, he loves the talkers.

The U.S. couldn't, wouldn't and shouldn't have been able to suck enough dick to get Putin to not decide that Russia's natural state is to control those places that have traditionally been in it's orbit of power. Are spheres of power real? Should the U.S. sometimes allow countries to wield power in ways we don't like in someone else's sphere or power? I think that before too long we are going to have to come to some accommodations with China over U.S. interference in their backyard. Do we need to and should we do that with Russia? Sach's says yes, the Ukrainians say no. I vote no, the Russians are a washed up power and letting run roughshod over one place guarantees that they will keep doing the same thing in others. I thought we should have intervened in Georgia cause I was sure that not doing so was going to lead to bigger problems down the line and what do you know.

cgod  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: RIP Tina Turner

Ike arguably had the first hit rock and roll song of all time.

He was a successful musician for decades before he met Tina. Great at piano, guitar and arranging.

Easy first ballot Rock and Roll hall of fame.

He must have been consumed by a powerful anger.

MS-13 is a real problem for El Salvador, I don't' think any gang in the Philippines was a seriously challenging government power.

I don't know how to justify it but I feel like Duterte intentions were less sincere. He saw the drug crackdown as a good path to power and a great way to get rid of trouble makers.

Bukele definitely gets off on the adoration but I think he saw a problem he wanted to solve and went for it.

I could be wrong.

El Salvador had lost it's monopoly on violence. Before the crackdown Bukele had done a few cycles of treaty and and violent rebellion with the three different gang factions. I think he realizes he couldn't get ahead without decisive action.

I think Duterte is more of an opportunist. Drug users and dealers were an attractive victim for his populism.

Mostly not from the "news".

Lawfare has pretty good coverage of the things no one paying attention to.

How far is Mexico from trying the same?

Locking up all the gangs looks like a viable path to power, some one is sure to throw the dice.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64770716.amp kinda explains how they have gathered up tens of thousands of gang members and imprisoned them with little due process. Thousands of innocent people, and people who aren't liked by authorities, have been swept up as well.

The president, Nayib Bukele, who is the author of this clampdown has had an over 80% popularity rating for the last four years. He controls the legislature and fired and reappointed his own supremacy court. This isn't a Russian 80%, it's a real 80.

Last guy we saw wield the iron fist in Latin America like this was probably Fujimori in Peru. He hollowed out all the civil society organizations and unified the government behind him. Mo checks and balances, just like Nayib. Modern Peru is a hot mess, it's almost as interesting a story as El Salvador. I think Peru is on six governments and two impeachments in the last two years. I think a great deal of the dysfunction there can be laid at Fujimoris feet.

Ukraine and Ethiopia are pretty interesting right now but Latin America is heating up and it doesn't get a lot of notice.

cgod  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Recent Trends in Mental Health and Substance Use Concerns Among Adolescents

My kid will be a teenager soon.

I bought some Narcan to have around the house.

Everything has Fentanyl in it, it's scary.

Narcan's expiration date is not very accurate, it can last for a decade at room temperature.

cgod  ·  17 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Workers Are Happier Than They’ve Been in Decades

There are always 9 month waits and there are always alternatives that are pretty satisfactory if you look around long enough.

When ever kids start school there are openings, it's the natural ebb and flow of one out one in.

cgod  ·  20 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: In which NYT reputation rehabs Elizabeth Holmes

I didn't like her turtle neck.

It was an obvious ploy to present her self as a Steve Jobs level disruptor.

I didn't think the voice she spoke in was her natural speaking voice.

It's fine to pick a new voice to use. I've encouraged people I know who didn't like their voice to do the same thing but her use seemed calculated for bullshit.

I wasn't surprised she turned out to be a fraud.

It will be interesting to see how the years in jail treat her, she earned them.

People do sometimes come out of jail better people than they went in.

cgod  ·  30 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: April 26, 2023

Please Please Please not DeSantis, I can't listen to his nasal whine for four years...

cgod  ·  66 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Credit Suisse Bond-Wipeout Threatens $250 Billion Market

Conservative love for the unitary executive is part of the problem.

I don't know the financial side of this all that well, but on the national security side congress just doesn't have much bandwidth anymore for serious detail oriented work that isn't extremely pressing. This is especially true on the republican side where a huge number of representatives entered congress with a MAGA mindset. Good national security legislation is innately bipartisan.

It's not a love for the unitary executive as much as owning libs on Twitter and other performative ritualistic politics is how you get ahead and hard work doesn't count for shit.

We are going to see an interesting test of Congress ability to do more than be shit flinging monkeys with the AUMF repeals the Senate is sending over. If they get repealed it would be a bipartisan step towards Congress clawing back a little shred of power, hopefully that might become habit forming but I should probably be careful what I wish for.