This article's writer is statistically challenged. It make me angry
the article age so bad, it is funny (I mean very sad) to look at only a few day later
Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?
21 march: 388 death
Yeah, they were right to worry: it grow fast (x6 in 5 days). I cant wait for tomorrow when it will probably be at 680, and in 2 week when it will be around 6800
If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis —
Ok that's the point I stopped paying attention.
You have data from dozen country to check.
BUT he decided the only relevant information is the diamond princess. Forgot to say that 15 people on the boat are still in a critical state. Diamond Princess population is so small, any death/recovery drastically change the stats. 10 more people die (out of the 150 still ill) and you're at the 3% death rate used by WHO.
Using only Diamond princess data is disingenuous at best, criminal at worst... because I cant help but suspect that this guy has an agenda.. nobody can be so insincere
Not only he took the smallest death rate of all country: 1,4% . Then rounded it to 1% then assumed the boat population is elderly (is it? Do he know the medium age on that cruise, or he watched "love boat" and make his assumption? Arent those cruise population also known to be wealthy, and probably very healthy to go traveling for weeks?.. I watched Love Boat too!), then he cut the rate to 0.3% .. really?! That is not mathematics, it is magic
My guess, this guy must be a Russian spy trying to get people to not care.