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ooli's profile
ooli

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following: 200
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hubskier for: 2855 days

Don't be offended by my poor English. My French is almost worst.

recent comments, posts, and shares:
ooli  ·  19 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.

    Percentage changes are not reason to invest. They might be reason to take a bet, but to invest, you are considering what is causing those changes. You might be wrong, but you are at least considering some sort of evolutionary process.

Investing on a percent change is an economical school based on the assumption that ALL the information is already in the market.

And you might never find that information elsewhere.

Let's take the senator who sold $1,6 millions worth of stock based on his covid knowledge:

That info was privy to him. The fact that he sold airline's stocks is probably available in the %age change of the day. Probably airlines under performed the S&P that day. So without knowing what's up, only by noting the discrepancy in market movement, you might deduce it's time to sell.

So investing only according to how the market move, is economically sound in my book.

But.. I was short in the middle the 1st fall in the end of February. Then lost money when the market rushed back up.

And according to the "Information is in the market' theory, I closed my short, and when leveraged long ... and lost my 50% gain from 2019 in one week of march. So that 'market contain all the information' might not work so well

ooli  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What’s in the $2 Trillion Senate Coronavirus Bill

I doubted the Democrats had any interest in general public over shareholders... They are choosing Biden right now.

This Cov Bill give hope

ooli  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What’s in the $2 Trillion Senate Coronavirus Bill

All day I was pretty angry at the bailout, feeling people tax were used for shareholders... your post made me realize, it's a pretty fair package, with more than half for the people and the small business.

I just regained hope in the democratic system

ooli  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A fiasco in the making?

He use the old "we are not sure" argument. It's a scam parading as science

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufactured_controversy

    Opponents of public health and environmental regulations often try to “manufacture uncertainty” by questioning the validity of scientific evidence on which the regulations are based. Though most identified with the tobacco industry, this strategy has also been used by producers of other hazardous products.

death rate on the ship just went up to 1,7 %.. And a simple wiki search would have debunked his assumption about infected being old:

If the young crew was exposed to covid, his all argument fall even more flat.

I cant wait till we find who paid this guy to spurt this non-sense of an article

ooli  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A fiasco in the making?

This is not about agreeing. I'm already agreeing with him. Covid probably isn't deserving of such a governmental reaction.

But he is statistically wrong. You don't exclusively use 712 data point, when you have 200 000 available. Then make guesstimate around those 712 point. This is deceit.

So if he knows math, then he has an agenda and he is purposefully lying about statistic to fulfill it. Seriously the CIA should check this guy

ooli  ·  6 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: A fiasco in the making?

This article's writer is statistically challenged. It make me angry

the article age so bad, it is funny (I mean very sad) to look at only a few day later

    Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction?

21 march: 388 death

Yeah, they were right to worry: it grow fast (x6 in 5 days). I cant wait for tomorrow when it will probably be at 680, and in 2 week when it will be around 6800

    If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis —

Ok that's the point I stopped paying attention.

You have data from dozen country to check.

BUT he decided the only relevant information is the diamond princess. Forgot to say that 15 people on the boat are still in a critical state. Diamond Princess population is so small, any death/recovery drastically change the stats. 10 more people die (out of the 150 still ill) and you're at the 3% death rate used by WHO.

Using only Diamond princess data is disingenuous at best, criminal at worst... because I cant help but suspect that this guy has an agenda.. nobody can be so insincere

Not only he took the smallest death rate of all country: 1,4% . Then rounded it to 1% then assumed the boat population is elderly (is it? Do he know the medium age on that cruise, or he watched "love boat" and make his assumption? Arent those cruise population also known to be wealthy, and probably very healthy to go traveling for weeks?.. I watched Love Boat too!), then he cut the rate to 0.3% .. really?! That is not mathematics, it is magic

My guess, this guy must be a Russian spy trying to get people to not care.

ooli  ·  29 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Great Buenos Aires Bank Heist

    the food has arrived, I pull out my wallet. As the guest, I say, I should pay.

    “No, no,” he says “Banco Río is paying.”

Sold! Next year I learn Spanish and go live in Argentina, those are my people

ooli  ·  33 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 371st Weekly "Share Some Music You've Been Into Lately"

sucker for cover:

into the groove

ooli  ·  37 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: All This Dystopia, and for What?
ooli  ·  37 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bugski: Markup tips are down

markup work here..

but on others pages it send to https://hubski.com/markup which say "You are standing in an open field west of a white house, with a boarded front door. There is a small mailbox here. " on firefox and MS Edge

ooli  ·  37 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Library of Babel - Why Hexagons?

that is very nice of you. Ooli.. come from Olivier.

Back in 2000, I was in a chat room, and couldnt use 'Oli' (Short for Olivier) as a nickame.. so I added another "O" in front and I liked the look and strangeness of it

Getting a pun in a foreign language is the highlight of learning a new language

ooli  ·  37 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The Library of Babel - Why Hexagons?  ·  

It inspired me to write a poem:

  Dans la bibliothèque aux étroits hexagones,

J'ai marché plus d'une fois vers un but précis.

Loin de ce tome ultime et de ses facéties,

Que cherchent les héros comme une autre Gorgone.

Lisant chaque ligne dans ma quête infinie

Plus impossible encore et plus simple à la fois,

Puisque dans ce royaume, bâti autrefois,

J’attends l'Amour qui absout de l'ignominie.

  Espérant celle qui dans le semblable livre

Plongerait son regard; son regard qui délivre,

Hébergerai mon âme dans sa palmeraie.

Mais le hasard est cruel, et son couperet

Sans fin, me laisse seul, isolé à poursuivre

Ces lignes que tu lirais, toi que j'aimerais!

...

According to google bot, this will roughly translate as :

  In the Library with narrow hexagons,

I have walked more than once towards a specific goal.

Far from the Ultimate volume and its jokes,

That heroes seek like another Gorgonian.

Reading every line in my endless quest

Even more impossible and simpler at the same time,

Because in this kingdom, built in the past,

I await the Love which absolves from ignominy.

   Hoping for the girl, in the similar book

Diving her gaze; her gaze that delivers,

Who will host my soul in her palm grove.

But Chance is cruel, and its cleaver

Endlessly, leaves me alone, isolated to pursue

These lines that you would read, you that I would love!

When I woke up at 5am to prepare my shool work in middle shool, I usually ended up writing a rpg . It was mostly a medieval plagiarism of Bushido a rpg I was loving, but never managed to find players for it.

I'm pretty impress, because I'm sure I read about Wayfarers before

To procratinate from studying for my exam in 2nd year of university, I teach myself knitting. Since my mom had a knitting set. I knit 1 blue scarf, and 2 or 3 red wool thong for my gf. I praise myself to be the only one thinking of knitting thong ever... I wish to no one to wear them