Okay, I'll play.

I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat).

Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin all have marijuana initiatives on the ballot. Cranky white people aren't coming out to vote for or against weed. Young hipsters are. And they aren't voting for Trump. The "angry old white men" are a factor but they're 7% of the population in Michigan, for example. Meanwhile, blacks and hispanics are 20%, and "Latinos para trump" notwithstanding ("To Serve Man?"), it's hard to imagine he's doing well with the spanish-speaking contingent. And "imagine" is what we have to do because the only polls focusing on it are bullshit organizations like Survey Monkey.

The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch!

Yep, old people vote. but 14 states are courting ganja voters, the exact same way the Republicans got out the hate vote in 2004. It's interesting that Michael Moore focuses on the end of the Angry White Man without noticing that demographically speaking, males over 55 account for 10% of the population. Throw out the 25% of them that aren't white and your angry white males are 7.5% of the electorate. Latinos are 12.5%, African Americans 12.3%. And yeah, it gets electorally fuzzy but obviously, "who votes" matters as much as "how they vote" and even Hari Seldon over there at 538 is only counting polls. And the polls are really shitty on minority voting.

The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise.

Or, "Hi, I'm Michael Moore and this is about me." Problem is, the overwhelming majority of congressmen and senators (even the majority of democratic senators) voted for the Iraq War. One of the Greeks said something like "it is better to be wrong with everyone than right alone" and regardless of Michael Moore's (or my) feelings about the Iraq War, Hilary Clinton was in a position to make a decision. Donald Trump, on the other hand, was protecting half a billion dollars in junk bond sales. Here's The Donald, day after the state of the union:

Trump: Well, he has either got to do something or not do something, perhaps, because perhaps shouldn’t be doing it yet and perhaps we should be waiting for the United Nations, you know. He’s under a lot of pressure. He’s — I think he’s doing a very good job. But, of course, if you look at the polls, a lot of people are getting a little tired. I think the Iraqi situation is a problem. And I think the economy is a much bigger problem as far as the president is concerned.

Is there room for debate about the Iraq War? Sure. Is it one of five reasons? No. Not to anybody but Michael Moore.

The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary.

Who fucking cares? I volunteered for Kerry and it did fuckall. I voted for Kerry and it did fuckall. I'm not sure why "I'll vote for Clinton but be bummed out" somehow counts less than "I'll vote for Clinton and be stoked." Until ballots have constitutionally-binding emoji on them, this is nothing more than a bullshit wordcount filler.

The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth.

This is Michael Moore saying "ignore the data." Sure, "ignore the data" but that doesn't make Trump president, that makes the outcome less certain.

Presidents are elected by the electoral college, not popular vote. Here's the polls for 2012:

Here's the electoral map:

Michael Moore is an interesting documentarian, but he's no Sybil. This is more of a "I have sand in my underpants" screed than an actual analysis.

And that's why moe's link is more than enough.