I will tell you why, right now, why Trump does not have a chance and has already lost. Last week, I sat in a room with about a dozen Evangelical types. Yea, it felt like this. NONE of them like Trump, that gay lovin' thrice married Holly-weird fella' that married those foreign women. Granted anecdote is not the same as Data, and yea he tried to pander with Pence, but if the Evangelicals don't like you as a Republican, you lost. My prediction, baring some weird global event or new round of terrorism, is that this election is going to have the lowest turn out in a US election since the 80's. Hillary will squeak in, she will drop her 2-3 Supreme Court Appointees in and serve one term before retiring in 2021 for health reasons at 74. The bad part of that is that low turn out in the state and local stuff favors Team R, which I am not a fan of right now. The DNC is useless and won't mount a 50 state strategy and we go back to focusing on battleground states for the rest of silly season.