Cogent and well considered, as usual. Except... No, what he is saying here is that someone grumpily voting for Clinton is not out roping in all their neighbors and cousins and in-laws and FB friends to come out and vote. They are driving to their polling station alone. Dragging their feet in line, droopily pulling the level labeled "Clinton", and moping their way back home to drink a cold glass of chardonnay and watch West Wing re-runs. So every vote for Clinton is, well, a vote for Clinton. Compared with Bubba, who is a Patriot, goddam it, and so is gonna rope in every one of his in-bred moronic cousins, and the bartender, and that damn homeless guy on the corner, drive them to their polling place, and inform them loudly and with veins throbbing in his forehead that they WILL go inside, and they WILL vote for Trump, or else ole Bubba is gonna kick some cousin ass! Every Bubba vote for Trump is actually 1+N votes, where N=number of Bubba's cousins. Which seems kinda far-fetched to us lefties on the coasts, but - goddamn, if I am not seeing this from my acquaintances in the flyover states. Bubba has never given a shit about politics before. Now he feels like he has a voice, and a chance to stick it to everyone he has ever paid taxes to, so he's gonna grab that opportunity and run with it. Unless "America" beer goes on sale for $.10 a tallboy with attached Roman Candle on November 7th.... Who fucking cares? I volunteered for Kerry and it did fuckall. I voted for Kerry and it did fuckall. I'm not sure why "I'll vote for Clinton but be bummed out" somehow counts less than "I'll vote for Clinton and be stoked." Until ballots have constitutionally-binding emoji on them, this is nothing more than a bullshit wordcount filler.
The argument, basically, is that Clinton doesn't inspire a get-out-the-vote campaign the way Trump does. No matter how you do the math, the vote is the vote - and I get it, trump is a "populist" candidate. But the populist movement this year, on that side, is "keep the goddamn Darkies out of the country" while the populist movement this year, on this side, is "oh shit there's a Nazi running for President" with some "also, make weed legal" thrown in for good measure. For every argument you can make for the populism of Trump, an argument can be made for the populism against Trump. Clinton hasn't even accepted the nomination yet. Sanders endorsed her yesterday. Arguing the ground operations in November from here in July is... well, premature. And we could debate "grass roots" vs. "astroturf" from here to the moon and back but... Fuck Bubba's cousins. Trump gets coverage by saying outlandish shit. Now that we're in the general election, every outlandish thing Trump says gets an automatic rebuttal in the press. Every campaign ad doesn't. And Clinton simply has more money. I hear what you're saying. But the disaffected white guy vote doesn't balance out the are-you-fucking-kidding-with-that-taco-salad Hispanic vote or the polling-at-zero-in-multiple-states African American vote.
What's funny to me is the same people who laugh and point at the divided Republican party somehow see it as an unstoppable juggernaut when they consider the Democrats. Clinton has been the obvious nominee since 2012. Sanders made a hell of a run at it and good on 'im but it's kind of amazing that Clinton's nomination was ever even vaguely in doubt. On the other hand, Not. A Single. Former President. is endorsing Trump. None of them went to the convention. At the glee-club unifying rally, Trump's biggest rival basically told him to get stuffed. The Koch brothers are sitting it out. Bloomberg, the Republican Dark Horse White Knight, endorsed the other party. Yet Michael Moore brings up "grass roots" and people lap it up like it makes sense.
That has always been the case, though. The R's are a fucking machine. They have this shit wired. On the other hand, all you ever needed to do to destroy the Democratic party is put two of them in a room together. This election cycle has broken that decades-long narrative, though, and now the R's can't find their ass with both hands. What's funny to me is the same people who laugh and point at the divided Republican party somehow see it as an unstoppable juggernaut when they consider the Democrats.
And that all plays into the trump narrative. US vs them the 1% vs the rest of America. For a lot of people the sanders vote wasn't an endorsement of sanders it was a not Clinton vote. You underestimate how pissed off people are and now many there are. See brexit
I wonder if this is true though. Obviously people are lamenting the end of Bernie's campaign now in July, but we've got a lot of time between now in November for Clinton to do some image rehab (potentially with Kaine... we'll see how that goes) and/or for Drumpf to continue to spew horrifying proto-fascist screed. A lot of the Bernie stans I've seen have pointed out the promotion of the platform over the candidate and the legislation, SCOTUS nominations, and other civil liberties that are threatened by not rallying around the Clinton flag. I think there's plenty of time for people to get more comfortable with voting for HRC.
Wonder all you want. If I were in a position to Swiftboat Trump, "A vote for Donald is a vote for Putin" isn't a bad place to start.