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My math on the Republican Primary

by JakobVirgil · #politics
posted 408 days ago · shared by: 2
the nytimes delegate count Mitt has received 661 delegates he needs 483 more to reach the magic number 1144. So he needs 48% of the remaining delegates he has received 58% of the previous delegates so his performance could slack-off a good bit and he would still win.

the other candidates are not so lucky Rick Santorum needs 75% of the remaining delegates and has only 25% so far. Good money is on Brother Romney for the Republican nod and for Obama for the win.



by speeding_snail 408 days ago  ·  link
I as an European marvel at the US elections. I mean, the elections are November sixth, but already the US elections are all over the news (even over here). Could somebody explain the logic behind this way of doing things? All I see is one big media-fest...
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
    All I see is one big media-fest...
-That pretty much sums it up. The media and the elections have a symbiotic relationship. Every election cycle it seems to start sooner. The sooner they start, the sooner the media conglomerates and the politicians can start making money. It's like when retail shops start putting out their christmas decorations in October.

The sooner the cycle starts, the sooner the candidates can start rallying their base and begin raising money. In the United States, the candidate that raises the most money wins the election 98% of the time. It's extremely important to fund raise early and to do so you have to establish yourself as the front runner and establish your opponent as the anti-christ.

It's obnoxious but at the same time, it can be quite entertaining too. I apologize that our theatre of politics is infiltrating your news cycle already.

I have to say, I really am looking forward to this election though. I think it will be an exciting one.

by speeding_snail 408 days ago  ·  link
It is not necessarily a bad thing that we get some news from the US, since it can indeed be quite entertaining. Especially when the reporter himself is kinda hooked. It seems its just the way Americans do things. When you do something, make it big.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
We are definitely not that subtle when it comes to our media and our politics.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
I wouldn't be overly confident in an Obama victory. Romney is no slouch when it comes to campaigning (he's had a ton of practice) and he will have some $ behind him. He's not as polarizing as Santorum or Gingrich either. He could potentially grab some of the middle. He's a real contender imo.
by JakobVirgil 408 days ago  ·  link
The Mormon thing sinks him more deeply than most think. He has to suppress the greater portion of his personality and story to appear vanilla. this leaves him with http://images.forbes.com/media/2010/04/12/0412_richie-rich_2... and not much else. If he embraces the beautiful strangeness of Mormonism, he will not get the core evangelical vote the core of 25% of the voting pop by my estimates. it is a fatal flaw. Which is too bad most Mormons of my acquaintance are very nice people and secret commies.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
Secret commies, huh? I never realized that. I would have guessed more libertarians.
by JakobVirgil 408 days ago  ·  link
They come from the Christian Left/Radical Reformation and used to live in communal villages and still swear to live with all things in common in their temples even today. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Order
by mk 408 days ago  ·  link
I also think that it will be a close race. Obama won't have the passion that he garnered in 2008. However, Romney doesn't seem to be able to fire up the base.

IMO it will come down to the economy, which will probably give Obama a close win. It's beginning to look like a real recovery, and Romney's argument of "It should recovery faster" doesn't have a lot of sting to it. However, I'm not sure what other issue he could try to win on.

by JakobVirgil 408 days ago  ·  link
Mitt has watered himself down so far he will only get the "I am not Obama" vote for sure and that will not be excited. I give Barry a 65% chance of a second term.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
The I am not Obama vote will get the right and then the center is up for grabs. It's way too early to tell but I think it will be close. I agree that it has a lot to do with where the economy is at and how effective Obama will be at coloring Romney as a wealthy outsider and conversely how effective Romney will be at coloring Obama as an inept and naive leader. It really should be an interesting one though. Our first African American president vs. Our first potential mormon POTUS.

Will Mitt be able to convince the evangelicals that his version of jesus is legit?

by JakobVirgil 408 days ago  ·  link
The 20 - 25% that really hate Obama would never vote democrat anyway (unless George Wallace rises from the dead.) courting them is misused energy for either party. the strategy of painting Barry as Inept is the strongest one but I am afraid the Republicans are married to the socialist-Muslim-Atheist-radical meme that really has no resonance outside of their echo chamber.

With this said I think Mitt is a good guy and would make a passable president. it just ain't going to happen.

by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
I don't disagree. I think it's Obama's to lose. mk is right that it has a whole lot to do with how the economy is doing come election time. Remember how much that helped Obama get elected? When the shit hit the fan and McCain/Palin looked flustered, Obama stayed cool. The shift from national security to the economy didn't play in to McCains game plan. This really helped Obama. I wonder what, if any, last minute national crisis will occur this time? Whose hands will it play in to?
by JTHipster 408 days ago  ·  link
He likes firing people.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
I'm wondering what makes you say that? Did he say that he liked firing people for the sake of firing them? Or did he say that he liked getting rid of inept people? There is a big difference. -I'm seriously asking, I have not heard the clip or read the quote in context.
by b_b 408 days ago  ·  link
They made a big deal of this in the media, but I think it was taken out of context.
by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
I have absolutely no problem with what he said. You can see him recognize the flop he just made though and start back peddling.

I too like the ability to get rid of somebody that isn't good at what they do. Want job security? Be good at what you do...!

by JTHipster 408 days ago  ·  link
My response wasn't actually meant as a serious criticism of Mitt Romney. Think of it as precisely that clip played out over and over again.

Its not really so much the fact that he actually does like firing people (which is his actual words and are very easy to take out of context, and really should have been avoided like the plague), but that he's become associated with that quote. Then there's also Romney and Me, where you get to see how much money he makes compared to you.

Regardless of political beliefs, which he has been notably inconsistent on, Romney is not the candidate that would be able to beat Obama. Not by a long shot. He's too much the stereotypical rich republican, a very wealthy, disconnected man who comes off as a bit weasley and nervous. So far he's sort of been carried by everyone elses flaws; Ron Paul is too much not a republcian to get the nomination, Rick Santorum was too crazy, Newt Gingrich was too airheaded, Michelle Bachmann was too much the butt of a bad joke, and really everyone up until this point has been a "Can we seriously not find anyone besides Mitt Romney?" candidate.

I'm actually really disappointed by that. Obama isn't my favorite President, I'll be honest, but he's not terrible and I've gotten off very nicely thanks to being on my parents health insurance plan until I'm 26 (which saves me money that I need for things like college or clothes or food and whatever.) It'd be nice to see a challenger who could actually pose a challenge in debates, and someone who could actually make a decent president if they won. Instead we're presidented with a very ineffectual, very unrelatable republican candidate, up against a President who is on the rebound on hasn't really had to pull any big punches yet to stay ahead.

by thenewgreen 408 days ago  ·  link
I'll agree that the GOP field was weak at best. I don't think that Romney (mormonism aside) harkens back to the glory days of the GOP. He's wealthy, well educated and has the ability to grab the middle. Honestly, he and Obama aren't all that dissimilar. There are a lot of disappointed former Obama supporters out there that will not be ponying up money this time. In US elections the candidate that raises the most $ wins. Period.

I'll likely vote for Obama but

    It'd be nice to see a challenger who could actually pose a challenge in debates, and someone who could actually make a decent president if they won.
I don't think the country would be any worse off if Romney won. I also think he'll give Obama a run for his money in the debates. He's a really sharp guy, If I were Obama I would have been hoping for Santorum or Gingrich. For a lot of people, Romney is a throwback to the old GOP, prior to them going crazy radical and evangelical. He's a rich, well educated business man and a lot of the country will be attracted by that. I like my republicans with a little more alex p keaton and a little less crazy, bible thumping radicals.... don't you?
by JakobVirgil 406 days ago  ·  link
alex p for president,
by thenewgreen 406 days ago  ·  link
He'd get my vote, but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't get Rush Limbaughs endorsement.
by JakobVirgil 405 days ago  ·  link
I would welcome a return to a conservative rather than radical republican party.
by thenewgreen 405 days ago  ·  link
I would too. I have to say, I think Romney is that.
by JakobVirgil 405 days ago  ·  link
I think I should have put a coma in there somewhere Radical Republicans are awesome. Republican Radicals on the other hand are not.
by thenewgreen 405 days ago  ·  link
HA. I got it the first time. But I agree radical Republicans are pretty tubular.


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