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I also think that it will be a close race. Obama won't have the passion that he garnered in 2008. However, Romney doesn't seem to be able to fire up the base.
IMO it will come down to the economy, which will probably give Obama a close win. It's beginning to look like a real recovery, and Romney's argument of "It should recovery faster" doesn't have a lot of sting to it. However, I'm not sure what other issue he could try to win on.