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wasoxygen's profile

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recent comments, posts, and shares:
wasoxygen  ·  2 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 28, 2022

I went to a game Monday with one of the Little League dads and the boys. The home team trails the league, has been eliminated, and was shut out. We mostly talked about trains. It was great.

wasoxygen  ·  18 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Ironman Wisconsin 70.3 2022

Great job! Starting a half-marathon after three hours of hard cycling (and a swim!) must be daunting. Do you practice the transitions or is it all autopilot by now? I picture myself halfway through the run and finding my goggles are still on.

wasoxygen  ·  20 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: With Stable Diffusion, you may never believe what you see online again

Heh, the LAOIN group lets you search the five billion source images they provide for AI training, and it turns out there are an awful lot of cat fighter pilots on the internet, many of them head-and-shoulder portraits wearing heavy jackets and gazing to the right. "cat pictures — that essential building block of the Internet."

wasoxygen  ·  28 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Simon Willison: Stable Diffusion is a really big deal

Last night I used most of my free allotment trying to recreate the excellent illustration of the Dyson car, to prove that professional artists will soon be as relevant as blacksmiths.

But even the best-looking "Dyson car with yellow trim" fails to look much like a vacuum cleaner.

It still seems like desperate times for album cover artists and scifi/fantasy book cover designers.

Today I only got one free image before being prompted to check my membership status.

"white cat playing chess with a toy chicken"

wasoxygen  ·  29 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Simon Willison: Stable Diffusion is a really big deal

johan you getting this

wasoxygen  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: ‘Zombie ice’ from Greenland will raise sea level 10 inches
wasoxygen  ·  40 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Californians asked to cut power use as extreme heat approaches

First I "don't believe in global warming," now I "like global warming," what could be next?

Are you sure we actually disagree, given this degree of difficulty in communicating my position?

For the record, I think we should avoid binary good/bad judgments and use cost-benefit analysis to consider better or worse alternatives.

    it is strange to ponder if there are significant economic benefits from climate change when compared to the costs

Why strange? Aren't you curious to see reality as it is? How can you correct for bias if you dismiss evidence that challenges your beliefs, concluding in advance that it will be too small to matter?

Deaths are a relevant consequence of climate change. Every year people are killed by high temperatures. And every year people are killed by low temperatures. Which number is higher? It's not obvious. If fewer people die in the winter, shouldn't that mitigate some additional heat-related deaths in the summer? Or perhaps climate change will cause more deaths in both winter and summer, but we won't know if we don't look.

Note: Source cites the Fourth National Climate Assessment which claims that "With continued warming, increases in heat-related deaths are projected to outweigh reductions in cold-related deaths in most regions" citing The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States which expresses the same claim, "The reduction in cold-related deaths is projected to be smaller than the increase in heat-related deaths in most regions" ("medium confidence") while recognizing that "Future adaptation will very likely reduce these impacts" i.e. people will install air-conditioning ["Very High Confidence"].

    Disruption is costly.

Switching from animal power to motorized power was costly. Automating manufacture was costly. Eradicating polio was costly. Installing air conditioning is costly. If you do cost analysis instead of cost-benefit analysis you won't get the whole story.

    the optimal latitude to grow crops of a certain type

Relocating a farm doesn't sound easy, but agriculture is constantly changing, with higher yields reducing the amount of land needed. Smil points out that in a satellite image of Spain you can see a large white region at the southern tip. Almería is covered in greenhouses and produces vegetables which are shipped all over Europe, as far as Stockholm. To extend the growing season, some of the greenhouses are heated. (Greenhouses are also enriched with CO₂ to improve yields.)

    Shifting hundreds of millions to billions of people poleward

Why shift? People live with temperature changes of a few degrees every year, indeed every day. People retiring from New York to Florida will endure more climate change than New York will get in a century. Outside of deserts, the hottest regions of the world are populated, and the largest uninhabited regions are cold. We have East African genes.

    Insurance companies have market-driven forces driving up insurance rates almost everywhere

No link so I won't dispute your claim. Climate change could certainly drive up rates, if real rates are in fact rising, but so could rising affluence (we have more valuable things to insure) or cost disease. Swiss Re says "By mid-century, the world stands to lose around 10% of total economic value from climate change." That is a lot of value in absolute terms, but average annual growth of 3% would more than double total economic value in that time, so people will still be better off (1.03^29 × 0.9 = 2.12). The real comparison is to how much climate change mitigation would cost in total economic value.

These numbers are all fairly speculative, but Smil makes a (rueful) case that mitigation is all but hopeless anyway.

    The UN’s first climate conference took place in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, and in the intervening decades we have had a series of global meetings and countless assessments and studies. Annual climate change conferences began in 1995 (in Berlin) and included much publicized gatherings in Kyoto (1997, with its completely ineffective agreement), Marrakech (2001), Bali (2007), Cancun (2010), Lima (2014), and Paris (2015).

    In Paris, about 50,000 people flew to the French capital to attend yet another conference at which they were to strike, we were assured, a “landmark” — and also “ambitious” and “unprecedented” — agreement. Yet the Paris Agreement did not codify any specific reduction targets by the world’s largest emitters. And even if all voluntary non-binding pledges were honored (something utterly improbable), the Paris accord would still result in a 50 percent increase of emissions by 2030.

    Some landmark.

Like Jamie Dimon, he recommends natural gas over coal as a realistic practical measure.

"We can proceed fairly quickly with the displacement of coal- fired electricity by natural gas (when produced and transported without significant methane leakage, it has a substantially lower carbon intensity than coal) and by expanding solar and wind electricity generation."

wasoxygen  ·  41 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Californians asked to cut power use as extreme heat approaches

Can we get a quote?

wasoxygen  ·  42 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Californians asked to cut power use as extreme heat approaches

    A typical lithium car battery weighing about 450 kilograms contains about 11 kilograms of lithium, nearly 14 kilograms of cobalt, 27 kilograms of nickel, more than 40 kilograms of copper, and 50 kilograms of graphite—as well as about 181 kilograms of steel, aluminum, and plastics. Supplying these materials for a single vehicle requires processing about 40 tons of ores, and given the low concentration of many elements in their ores it necessitates extracting and processing about 225 tons of raw materials.[108] Again, we would have to multiply this by close to 100 million units, which is the annual worldwide production of internal-combustion vehicles that would have to be replaced by electric drive.

Vaclav Smil, How the World Really Works

[108] H. Berg and M. Zackrisson, “Perspectives on environmental and cost assessment of lithium metal negative electrodes in electric vehicle traction batteries,” Journal of Power Sources 415 (2019), pp. 83–90; M. Azevedo et al., Lithium and Cobalt: A Tale of Two Commodities (New York: McKinsey & Company, 2018).

wasoxygen  ·  44 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: American Airlines Agrees to Buy 20 Boom Supersonic Jets

    American Airlines and Boom Supersonic today announced the airline’s agreement to purchase up to 20 Overture aircraft, with an option for an additional 40. American has paid a non-refundable deposit on the initial 20 aircraft.

“Up to” may mean zero. This could be a tiny expense just for promotional value, or else an insurance policy in case supersonic transport ever takes off.

wasoxygen  ·  45 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Declining quality of consumer-grade products – 2009 fridge compressor autopsy

    I am saying that this compressor, and its application, show clear engineering choices made, which sacrificed its life span in the name of some modicum of energy savings.

It’s very possible that some modicum of energy savings is worth more to the customer that the cost of a new refrigerator.

Your Old Fridge Might Be Costing You A Lot More Than You Think

wasoxygen  ·  56 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: July 27, 2022

Point to veen, the license frame was a spoiler (54 is also the license plate code for Sakarya).

wasoxygen  ·  64 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: July 27, 2022

Any GeoGuessr players?

wasoxygen  ·  67 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 492nd Weekly "Share Some Music You've Been Into Lately"


wasoxygen  ·  69 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Climbing season 2022, pt1

Sorry to pester so much, but your activities look so inspiring, even on the elevation chart!

Great report, thanks! Looking forward to additional chapters.

wasoxygen  ·  79 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: "So there's been a nuclear attack..."

    a powerful spring or something

10⁵ cm/sec is over 2000 mph; that's a powerful spring.

Richard Rhodes described a number of improvements to the gun design used in the atomic bomb. A 21-foot barrel was already too long to fit in a B-29, and facing smaller guns at each other raised difficult timing challenges.

High muzzle velocity was essential: "Typically the chain reaction takes less than 1 μs (100 shakes), during which time the bullet travels only 0.3 mm."

In April 1943 Seth Neddermeyer was attending ordinance discussions at Los Alamos when he hit on the spherical implosion design. This would prove an exquisitely difficult engineering challenge, but the war provided urgency. Another engineer had a more prosaic insight: the five-ton Army gun under consideration was sturdy enough to withstand multiple firings; a bomb gun would be vaporized on first use and could be flimsier and lighter. But it was still very long, hence the design was nicknamed Thin Man.

Later that year Emilio Segrè made the final essential contribution to a portable gun design, measuring rates of spontaneous uranium fission at the secluded Pond Cabin, "one of the most picturesque settings one could dream of." He found that the rate of spontaneous fission in U235 was higher at elevated Los Alamos than at sea-level Berkeley. Cosmic rays caused the higher rate of fission, threatening to detonate the critical assembly early, resulting in a fizzle.

Cosmic ray shielding reduced the minimum muzzle velocity, allowing use of a smaller gun, and Little Boy was born.

wasoxygen  ·  82 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Quantum entanglement of two ATOMS (not photons) over 20 mile distance

spukhafte Fernwirkung

wasoxygen  ·  86 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Mysteries around obesity and the contaminant hypothesis

    If lithium (or something) is responsible for obesity, we should see low levels near lean cities and high levels near obese cities

    In the least obese communities, we found little evidence of lithium contamination. We were able to find drinking water measurements for five of these communities, and in all five, the level of lithium in their drinking water was quite low, with averages around 2 ng/mL.

    In the most obese communities, we found abundant evidence of lithium contamination

    Coal plants maintain groundwater testing wells to monitor contaminants, including lithium, and many of the most obese communities were downriver of plants with testing wells showing lithium levels above 100 ng/mL

    We're still surprised at how well this lines up. We didn't expect cities to matter very much — but based on what we've found, there looks like a pretty strong relationship between obesity rates and lithium contamination in the local water

It’s Probably Not Lithium

wasoxygen  ·  95 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: DALL•E mini

Merci pour l'insigne. Profitez de votre séjour à Fribourg!

wasoxygen  ·  98 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: First US Apple Store Unionizes

    As Chief Executive Officer and Chair at DOORDASH INC, Tony Xu made $413,669,920 in total compensation. Of this total $300,000 was received as a salary, $0 was received as a bonus, $0 was received in stock options, $413,369,623 was awarded as stock and $297 came from other types of compensation. This information is according to proxy statements filed for the 2020 fiscal year.

Your brief messages make it hard to understand what your concern is. Is it just that one guy got a lot of compensation? Where did that value come from? Did many people with a net worth under $100K buy and prop up the stock price? Did any of them also enjoy gains?

As you noticed, the stock has lost half its value since 2020. Does that make the DoorDash dude half as bad? Does he get any credit for helping people get food during a pandemic?

wasoxygen  ·  98 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: First US Apple Store Unionizes

    If you ask our people, what are the two or three biggest benefits that Starbucks provides, No. 1 is Spotify. That’s what it is. The second is Lyra Health, and that is mental health that we’re providing to our people.

I am curious why you might find an employee preference for a music benefit objectionable.

Pay ratio does not seem very illuminating. Starbucks, at 1211:1, is less lopsided than General Electric Company, with a median worker pay of $53,928, or Activision, with a median of $99,100.

The ratio reflects the reality of international retail work.

    Partners frequently work in flexible, part-time roles, which has the effect of lowering the annual total compensation for our median employee. In addition, Starbucks is a global company, with approximately 120,000 partners outside the U.S. Therefore, the median compensation disclosed below is based on our global workforce and is not designed to capture the median compensation of our U.S. partners.

Hence the median employee is "a part-time barista in Canada" who made $12,113 in 2020.

Schultz retired as Starbucks CEO in 2018. Kevin Johnson took over and was compensated $20.4 million in 2021 (base salary $1.61M, stock awards $14.76M, incentive bonus $4M).

Presumably the board seeks a CEO that will maximize shareholder benefit. Suppose instead that the board sought a CEO to maximize employee benefit. Which should they prefer?

1) The status quo. Pay an experienced executive twenty million to keep the ship on course.

2) Fire Johnson and hire the most-qualified executive willing to work for $5 million in total compensation. Distribute the savings equally among the 383,000 employees. That's a bonus of $3.35 per month, a third of the value of a Spotify premium membership. Trust that the discount CEO will manage the company well and not lose market share to competitors, resulting in closed stores and laid off staff.

3) Fire Johnson and find the most-qualified executive willing to work for free. Hope for the best.

If you favor option #3, you're in luck. Johnson retired in April and Schultz took over as interim CEO for $1 in compensation.

wasoxygen  ·  105 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: DALL•E mini

wasoxygen  ·  107 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: DALL•E mini

wasoxygen  ·  107 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: DALL•E mini