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comment by wasoxygen
wasoxygen  ·  106 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Global Average Sea Level Wager Update: 20%

    Global temp is cruising up ahead of expectations

Depends on whose expectations you look at. One source says the "skeptic" forecasters "have generally done rather poorly, universally predicting less warming than has been observed" whereas "global warming predictions made by mainstream climate scientists have all fared reasonably well, with the exception of Kellogg's in 1979, whose linear nature we found puzzling."

    I don't see any reason to think that we will lower CO2 emissions

Depends on who "we" are. CO2 emissions in the United States peaked in 2007. Global emissions were not much higher in 2022 than 2019, and the increase was smaller than global GDP growth.

China is by far the biggest contributor now, and per capita emissions remain much lower than in the U.S. and Canada. For a while I expect growth there will offset reductions elsewhere, but they face the same incentives as anyone to get away from coal. China is aggressively adding nuclear capacity.