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uhsguy's profile

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hubskier for: 1548 days

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uhsguy  ·  21 hours ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Exposing violent watch thieves and their young female 'spotters'

Your method works, it’s more complex than mine but also more flexible. Attaching NFTs to physical goods as a means of authentication is a good idea but It’s not perfect. You can still separate the real Rolex from the NFT and transfer the copy with the fake but at least you only have one instance of a fake out there. Still even with a simple solution like a database there should only be one instance, the only thing the blockchain adds is the ability to have a private key that prevents unauthorized transfers in the database though even that should be possible to add to a database without resorting to blockchain. Ultimately if the database is setup correctly the only difference between Blockchain and database is that trades can occur without an authorized shop to facilitate the exchange and even there a database could be used because the key is really just the same as a password so really we’re talking hacker resistance. Also if you want to be able to fix entries and roll stuff back then Rolex needs a set of private keys on the blockchain. If those are lost the blockchain entries get compromised as well.

IMO blockchain is a solution looking for a problem. Almost always when dealing with physical goods it falls back on some single exchange to authenticate the validity of the token and transfer the thing or the license/right. The only place that seems to be a non issue is digital currency where there is nothing to transfer and the value comes from the scarcity of the token itself.

I’m sure a proper pole would be offended to be compared to the UK. Poland is growing, getting stronger more relevant in the world while the UK Is in full on decline. It’s not quite South Africa but is getting closer every day.

I should visit soon before it really falls apart.

uhsguy  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Exposing violent watch thieves and their young female 'spotters'

You refuse to service the serial number and blacklist it. Maybe you allow folks to send them in for inspection/authentication and re/serializing if they think it’s legit.

With even say 3 serialized parts at 6#s you have 10^18 possible combos. That’s probably not enough to secure a non rate limited system but if you charge 1$ check you will be fine as long as the database isn’t compromised. My understanding of cryptography is limited but it may be possible to encrypt the entries as well such that even compromise database keys can’t be guessed.

Rolex is the DMV of Rolexes. If they don’t like your serial number they can cancel you at any time and that’s it short of suing them. Thats why if there is ever any doubt they can simply refuse to authenticate or force you to send the watch in for authentication. Moreover they can work with insurance companies and provide an authentication service that allows fake watches to be canceled for insurability as well if they wanted that. Though I think in general insuring fake Rolexes is probably pretty profitable and not paying out on fakes might not be worthwhile.

I’m not skeptical of the trade, there is after all a trade in Nike shoes and they are worth significantly less but it’s more that I wonder how much premium they loose on the black market due to lack of traceability. Without a very skilled authentication it’s hard to validate you get the real thing and markets tend to discount accordingly. Even the real thing if it’s possibly blacklisted by the vendor without a good way to verify would get discounted. So you should end up getting prices for the real thing that are close to that off high quality knock offs.

People in the 3rd world but stolen cars all the time for example but I suspect they are quite a bit cheaper then the legit ones or at least efforts are made to launder them.

uhsguy  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Exposing violent watch thieves and their young female 'spotters'

Seems like a really simple fix. Serialize the watch and the case back and the movement. The movement need not match but since you have complete control of the supply chain you can track what movement goes into what case with what case back.

Alternatively you can just state that the watch is the case back. You have to put all the anti counterfeit stuff into the case back instead but then you just control everything that way. Sort of like the aircraft is the placard. If you have an aircraft placard you can rebuild an entire aircraft around it and it would still be considered the same as the original unit.

It sounds like Rolex likes the idea of the watches not actually being traceable. There is no need for blockchain or anything fancy a ledger or database owned by Rolex would work well enough. Ownership can be transferred at your local Rolex dealer where they verify authenticity for a nominal large fee type of deal.

Seems like a watch is a pretty poor black market currency because they are knocked off so often you would have a hard time verifying authenticity and most of the value is in the authenticity. I guess sufficiently discounted they might work in volume.

uhsguy  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Exposing violent watch thieves and their young female 'spotters'

I’m surprised that all the major watch parts for 10k$ watches aren’t serialized. I assume they get fenced to the Middle East and Asia but that’s the more interesting part of the supply chain.

I’d be curious how sophisticated the operation is to launder stolen watches and who else has a hand in the pie. It wouldn’t surprise me if the manufacturers aren’t playing along though willfully ignorance as they benefit from watches getting stolen and creating additional demand, though if it gets really bad then perhaps the market will suffer.

I would assume that all the watch serial numbers are tracked so wherever they eventually reappear on the legitimate market insurance will reclaim them sort of like what happens to stolen art. If they transfer on the black and grey market they probably do so for a fraction of their clean value.

uhsguy  ·  2 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Exposing violent watch thieves and their young female 'spotters'

I don’t really feel bad for anyone loosing a 10k $ + watch. They are all insured anyway so probably zero fucks given all around. This is also a product of the extreme wealth disparity in the uk. A watch like that is worth more than a years worth of labor for many so it makes sense that they would get stolen if you parade it around in the wrong crowds.


How good are you at being present 40 hrs a week plus 16 hours mandatory overtime from 230-11 every day? Boeing in Seattle is hiring for like 16-22/hr that will pay for gas and a car to live in. Maybe a shared room after overtime.

Brown Bear car wash is paying 22 but the hours probably under 32.

uhsguy  ·  15 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: OpenAIs Alignment Problem

This may be confirmation that LLMs right now are a dead end.

uhsguy  ·  43 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: October 25, 2023

This will be a great game in 3-5 years after a half dozen expansions. Paradox games should never be played at release but they are always crazy expensive for the whole game once expansions release.

If you actually want to play it on your hardware try GeForce now and see how it runs on a 4080. That might help bridge the gap. Otherwise just return it by using the Steam 4 hour refund policy. By the time the expansions come out and it’s playable the base game will be 10-20$ and you will get the expansion for 20$ each

uhsguy  ·  52 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: October 11, 2023

I follow his stuff as well and occasionally he has cryptic references to a “men’s wear forum” that I’m still trying to find. I wonder if it’s become some sort of unmentionionable alt right shithole. Even then if it’s got an archive that should be ok.

If you haven’t switched to nitter btw. I’ve stopped using the shit formally known as twitter entirely.


uhsguy  ·  52 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: October 11, 2023

I think I’m hitting my middle age crisis or just my annual winter obsession. I had a year where I studied saltwater aquariums, a year for bees, a short stint on bikes , gardens, lawns. I think this year I want to lean to dress better. I’m nearing 40 and it’s seems like it would be fun to play dress up and look less like a tech slob.

Honestly not even sure where to start, the internet gets deader and deader every year, so research is that much harder. If I can’t find and good forums I’ll have to dive into the backwaters of discords and time sink if YouTube. I need to find some good gay forms or something straight men tend to want to impress women, and I’m married and at this point that’s no longer a concern.

uhsguy  ·  59 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: October 7, 2023

I don’t think there was truly much doubt that the money would continue to flow. Everything that congress does right now is performative in nature. The real legislation happens in the Supreme Court.

uhsguy  ·  59 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: October 7, 2023

I’m pretty sure this turn of events will allow the Ukrainian weapons money to go through. Maybe even more money than was originally blocked. 100b or so seems likely. That should keep the war going to 2025 or really 2026

uhsguy  ·  61 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pythagorean Theorem Found On Clay Tablet 1,000 Years Older Than Pythagoras

One thing to keep in mind is that base interest rate doesn’t matter as much as real interest rate. With modern monetary theory you really can’t compare pre 1971 and post 1971 rates without adjusting out inflation and you can’t really do that because at some point CPI and inflation decoupled due to and healthcare, housing weighting as well as hedonic adjustments there isn’t really a good number to use instead.

uhsguy  ·  61 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: October 7, 2023

    There are serious questions about how the Netanyahu government did not see this attack coming. It was either a spectacular intelligence failure or a security failure or both, and it strikes at the heart of the Netanyahu government’s promise to keep the country safe. At the same time, the attack is making Israelis rally together. The hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have been protesting Netanyahu’s strengthening hold on the government have said they would come together in this dangerous moment.

This will be their peal harbor, both in that the reprisal will be swift and strong and that eventually it will come out that they mostly knew it was coming but let it happen anyway. It’s exactly what the current government wanted and needed. My guess I was an underestimate of the effectiveness of attack, in the sense that the ruling party was looking to provoke and draw some sort of minor attack but didn’t expect one to occur at this scale.

uhsguy  ·  76 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 23, 2023

That was probably the best gameplay loop in the whole game. If I could play a game where I could just capture and salvage ships forever till I finally got so powerful I took over the galaxy that would be all I do. If they got rid of that gameplay I don’t think I would go back that was the most fun part of the game. Honestly wish you could fight enemies and then salvage ships that would be even better. The only games that really scratch that itch for me are endless sky and escape velocity nova. X3 had ok salvaging but it really needed mods to make it a more viable gameplay loop.

uhsguy  ·  92 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: GPHG's 2023 nominated timepieces

If you Simplify non-profit you the shareholder gets nothing and management eats all the profit it makes a lot more sense. When I was a kid I thought it was an organization that was supposed to do social good and that is incorrect.

uhsguy  ·  92 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: GPHG's 2023 nominated timepieces

I do see expensive watches a lot more than Hand bags. Pilots have a lot of excess money but I can’t say they have refined tastes. The Rolexes and the Nikes are basically the same in terms of people buying them because other people will recognize you are wearing an expensive thing personal style is mostly an afterthought. I’d love to know what the target demographic is for custom watches with no brand recognition. It’s gotta be a whole social class level above those that wear the branded stuff. Same way celebrities can wear replica Nikes but normal people would get laughed at for wearing fakes.

uhsguy  ·  93 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: GPHG's 2023 nominated timepieces

What do you mean by normies? At least on the west coast normies just buy brands like Apple and Nike. I’ve seen like 1 louis vuitton handbag at work that may have been real. The target demo for the jewelry you are showing off would be making 1m+ annually and is over 50.

The jewelry is really interesting as art but I have trouble imagining anyone wearing it except someone who earns an order of magnitude more than I do. I guess I just don’t get invited anywhere cool like that.

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: These moments totally happened at the GOP primary debate

He’s just as smug. I’m sure a lot of people love watching him fall too. I think he’s enjoying the chaos he’s causing and I don’t find it as enjoyable. Relegating him you irrelevance would have been the best thing.

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: These moments totally happened at the GOP primary debate

I don’t think she would really be any different than Biden. She was just so smug and entitled, that made her so hatable as a person. Watching her fall was almost as pleasant as watching Elon lose 40 billion on twitter, but of course there is a cost and everyone suffered in the end.

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: These moments totally happened at the GOP primary debate

Guys a total nut job anyone running against trump and Biden kind of has to be. Your better candidates are sitting this one out. Or maybe or system can’t produce function candidates any more. I hope that’s not the case but I’m worried it might be. It’s sad that I’d take almost any of the recent previous wash outs over the 2 we will likely have to choose from. I dare say even Hillary.

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: These moments totally happened at the GOP primary debate

You ain’t wrong but I’m concerned that this incumbent is coming into the primary really weak and he might have a tough time even against the extremely weak republican field. The economy looks like it might be getting ready to turn again. The rate hikes are going to bite soon enough. That’s not going to help him either unless he can kick the can for 14 more months. Ukraine ain’t going great and it’s not likely to improve by next year. The very least he could do is swap Harris for someone more likeable. Maybe pull Michelle Obama or similar to boost his odds and campaign energy. I’d put 60:40 on Biden right now but I still don’t like those odds. Trump cleared the field of moderates so only the extremes are even out there

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: These moments totally happened at the GOP primary debate

I don’t think we will see a democratic debate. Biden folks know he would not fare well and it would be bad for his poll numbers. If they could they would just hide him till 2028, and hope that trump implodes on his own.

uhsguy  ·  100 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Student Loans Are Emerging From Deep Freeze, and Borrowers Are Confused

The next crisis is brewing but we’re early, and in investing early is just a lesser form of wrong. The question is how early… are we 3, 6 months out from the second of crisis or year(s). The other question is how will the government respond to the crisis, are we going to print another 30% more dollars and cause associated inflation? It seems like a likely outcome, so that may be part of the investment calculus.

uhsguy  ·  106 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: August 23, 2023

The cut of wood matters (which part of the trunk) that changes how the wood moves but ultimately all wood will expand and contract with the seasons. Good designs and practices account for wood moving and provide it space to move without creating ugly gaps.

uhsguy  ·  107 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: August 23, 2023

Doors are pretty complicated I don’t think I’d start there. But trim is easyish. The big issue with both of those is accounting for humidity based expansion and finishing everything nicely takes at least half the time

uhsguy  ·  115 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Donald Trump and six co-defendants indicted on Jan. 6 Charges

With 91 charges you dont actually need any functional legal theory except that that legal system can bankrupt and destroy anyone at scale. Trump is beyond done, it dosent matter even if he were innocent of every charge when the states bring that many lawsuits against you its impossible to defend. I dont think he would be able to get elected before these totally destroy him.

uhsguy  ·  134 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Insurance companies in NYC deny coverage to buildings with subsidized tenants

A million a year per person is unsustainable, and it’s not cheap. In fact Actuarially speaking 10 years of that is worth one American life. It is 2x more than my entire projected lifetime earnings. Locking that person up in jail is significantly cheaper, a gallows and 6 feet of dirt even more so.

There is a practical point where society basically needs to let people somewhat ethically live out their lives in a contained fashion where they cannot harm others but no more than that. Burning 2-3 lifetimes worth of lifetime output on one broken individual makes no sense. I can’t see how as a society we should invest in 1 broken person as opposed to 10 teachers for example.

uhsguy  ·  135 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Insurance companies in NYC deny coverage to buildings with subsidized tenants

We may need to build units but they should probably be built differently. 100-200sf Concrete walls, wet bathrooms and single burner kitchens. Not much bigger than a small motor home and mostly indestructible. IT should be shelter but it doesn’t have to be nice or big and common building materials are not suitable but these extreme applications.