I mean let's look. Your first listing sold after four months for 15% under ask. That price represents a 15% appreciation from 2019; that's borderline normal. Your second listing is out of contract and listed for $100k more than it sold for 2 1/2 years ago. It's not gonna go for that and you know it - the reasonable price on that thing is probably $850k, which is probably what the contracted buyer offered once the inspection came back. Your third listing probably has $100k of remodel in it. It's 2600sqft in Sheridan Beach within walking distance of 3rd place books - it also doesn't stink of flip, the owners are looking for a 100% profit after 10 years of holding, which isn't unreasonable and never has been. Your fourth listing spent four months before dropping $50k and also hadn't moved for 20 years. Those guys? Those guys have my mortgage and it would make you cry if I told you what that fucker looks like. They've been in gravy since before the Great Recession and could have unloaded at any point - it's fair to say "around a million" is a durable market price for about 2000sqft around LFP. That thing on Mercer Island rents for $6k a month because ain't nobody got the nut for 20% down anymore. You'll notice he's chasing the shit out of the market - fukka started at $8250 in September and errbody went "nah." Let's wargame his universe, shall we? He bought for $1.5m at prolly a 4.45, woulda been a jumbo so they would have required like 25% down. So he's in for $375k down. His mortgage is $5700/mo. Whatta ya think. Are his PMI and utilities more or less than $300 a month? I'll bet more. That guy? He bought thirteen years ago and can't rent for what he's paying on it. Lemme just say that $6k a month rent is fucking bugshit even from a 2011 perspective and yet - we're at nope. Here this'll make you feel better. This guy went way the fuck too fast for $2.3m. Now they're trying to rent it for $7500 a month. Whattaya think - if you can't get $6k on Mercer Island can you get $7500 in Kenmore? Survey says no.
That house won’t rent for 7500, which is funny because that’s how much you would bed to break even (ish) on a 1.1-1.2 mil house. Red fin says estimated rent is 5500 and even that is high. Houses are an emotional purchase right now, the right move is probably to sell and rent unless inflation goes totally nuts then you’d get screwed
I don't know that they are. A while back someone did a calc on Twitter where they argued for a median 2 bedroom house purchased with a median mortgage before the pandemic, and a family having a baby and move into a median 3 bedroom house purchased with a median mortgage after the pandemic. That extra bedroom? doubles your mortgage. I don't care how emotional your purchase right now. We're well outside the bounds of "but I want it."
The volume is so low that we’re not out of bounds of I want it and bad financial decisions be dammed I have 2-4 years left to produce babies. A lot of tech bros in our area can come up with 200-300 down and a mortgage and as long as both people work they can hold down the 7-10k house payment too. The volumes were taking about are like 20 houses a week so 1000 annually in greater Seattle. Add that to people being dead set for one hood and you would be lucky to average a house a week. Shortages create manias and manias aren’t rational.
Most don’t, 2 days or multiple offers and 100-200 over asking. The ones that sat for that long had something seriously wrong with them and were selling at a bad time of the year. Buyers get spooked if a listing goes pending and falls through or a bad remodel took out a load being wall or 2 and the yard is encroaching into the basement. 2 years ago I saw some go for 400-500 over asking so I guess it could be worse…