Iran has responded to Trump's list of 52 sites with a complete list of all of Trump's properties around the world. I bet those hotel reservations and golf times at Trump properties are going to be pretty easy to come by, for the next 12 months or so...
Someone on Twitter last night linked to a poll that said Americans are pretty firmly against war with Iran but, you know. We can fuck that up somehow.
This means nothing, just my thoughts with no particular insights, but: I've got a feeling shit will start flying after the funeral. Iran's leaders got their casus belli and will not back down, even if they wanted to, judging by the mass of people in the funeral march. I don't think the US war hawks will respond with anything less than brutal retaliation, unless Trump thinks he can get something out of it domestically or with his base. I think we might see another war in the region, but I really hope I'm wrong.
Just spitballing here - not going to pretend to be an expert on the middle east by any stretch of the imagination - but Iran has no reason to hurry. The Marine barracks bombings were nearly three years after the hostages were released and Buckley was taken five months after that. Iran has also been holding joint naval drills with China and Russia so there's likely to be some discussion of geopolitics beyond Iran/USA. The US doesn't look good here. Not even vaguely. Following that up with threats against cultural sites? How well do you think the rest of the world will be observing sanctions against Iran now? Making an unsympathetic attack against an American target kinda kills their momentum. If I had to guess I'd guess we'll see a mourning Iran, a bellicose Iran, a sympathetic Iran, but not a shooting Iran. Not until they can really make it hurt.
I hope you're right, but with all the recent domestic unrest I'm not so sure. If I was an American officer or similar in, say, Afghanistan, I'd be watching over my shoulder/the sky. More than usual, that is.
Here's the thing, though: Suleimani's martyrdom basically allows the IRGC to consolidate. Any moderate opposition is now pretty much out. Mohammad Khatami was a reformer who took power to work with a moderate United States; he was defeated by Ahmadinijad pretty much the minute Bush added Iran to the Axis of Evil. We totally fucked Rouhani when we reneged on the nuclear deal. At this point the hardliners get whatever they want and nobody's gonna give a second thought to crackin' skulls if it's good for the regime.
Everyone should always be prepared for a cyber attack that could cripple the power grid. Edit 2: I am not saying that an Iranian attack is at all likely, it's just sensible to be prepared for anything. Plan with your family what to do should cell phones be inoperable, traffic lights go out (assume total gridlock, and cars become useless), obviously no internet, etc. Worst case scenario is that you've wasted a few minutes of your time, and an attack never comes. Anyway, if I were considering a cyber attack against the U.S., I'd launch any major attack smack dab in the middle of the American workday, like 12:00 CDT/CST. But like the Forbes article says, it would take time to prepare on-the-ground assets. Would love to hear your 2 cents, 'bl00. Edit: is there any sort of widely-used mesh network app for smartphones?
If I were Iran I wouldn't strike at the US populace at all. Stephen Kinzer made the point that popular hatred of America by Iranians takes a lot of effort to sustain - Tehran had a street named after an American missionary until recently and Iran were big boosters of America up until Mossadegh. It was the ties between Pahlavi and the CIA that created the whole "Great Satan" trope and if you look at Iranian actions in the Middle East they're largely against the military and intelligence. Iran got their vengeance for SAVAK through the Marine bombings and capturing and killing William Francis Buckley, CIA station chief for South Asia. The IRGC was maybe? involved in the USS Cole? But the Cole was such an operational clusterfuck that the best way to look at it is the Iranians threw some money at a bunch of Yemeni freelancers who if the Iranians had so much as given them a "blowing things up for Dummies" book would have had a lot more success. You probably know that as America's founding general fearlessly leading his noble troops to victory against an overwhelming and oppressive foreign invader. In the context of the time, though, that's a traitorous rebel terrorist striking a peacekeeping garrison WELL outside the bounds of conventional warfare. Who the fuck fights on Christmas? WINNERS as it turns out. The Iranians aren't unprincipled. They're fighting asymmetrical, unconventional warfare on terms the US does not officially fight but from an Iranian perspective, they're fighting a war, not slaughtering civilians. "Civilians" as defined by the Iranians, that is. I'll bet Jared Kushner has been told he's not leaving the continental US any time soon and I'll bet Mar El Lago is tight as a fucking drum right now.
Hezbollah's response is at least somewhat closer to actual de-escalation. Trump and Pompeo are like "Yep, we're de-escalating things on our end by making threats that may involve war crimes, sending 3,500 more troops, and probably eventually blaming the Iranian government for the acts of terrorists we created when we were de-escalating things yesterday."
Ha! Fooled ya. I'm not saying that large-scale cyber warfare is imminent, by any means. It's just something people should have a plan for, and generally don't. I've reworded my post to sound less alarmist, such wasn't my intent. At least prepare for electric grid failure in the event Earth is hit by a sizeable coronal mass ejection, which will become more likely (though still a long shot, statistically) as we approach solar maximum in about four years. And once I'm finally done with school, I'm gonna get Ham radio operator certs. Not primarily because tinfoil; because fun. But hey, this is the first time we've killed a senior member of another nation's military since WW2. To pretend like none of this is a big deal is also probably unwise.
...well... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrest_and_assassination_of_Ngo_Dinh_Diem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrice_Lumumba#Final_days_and_executionBut hey, this is the first time we've killed a senior member of another nation's military since WW2.
Thanks, but it’s the arbitrary frequency band allocations, esoteric procedures, and the lack of urgency edging me out for now. I just need to PhD this year, or really, ASAP. The radios themselves are cheap, handheld, and I could learn a lot just by listening. That sounds like my jam. Soon!
Agree on all counts. My first reaction to all of this was a sense of embarrassment. Then, yeah, fear that Trump is doing this for political and/or personal gain, and sorrow for all of the people who will needlessly die. It's a shame that killing Sunni extremists almost exclusively wasn't enough. So I guess it's on with all of Islam, now? Brilliant.