- Trump’s presidency marks a return to realpolitik and great power politics. No one knows what goes on in Trump’s mind or if even he believes he has a strategy. What matters is what Trump does, so this essay looks at his actions, considers the bias of his critics, and seeks a new way to understand his policies. It considers the possibility that Trump has a method to his madness.
>ctrl-f realpolitik >1 of 3 Okay, so if you're going to use a buzzword like "realpolitik" you need to at least use it correctly. "Realpolitik" does not mean "method to his madness" it means "do what works." The essay touches on "booming economy and stock market", "no new foreign wars", "a significant degree of progress with China and Mexico", a "needed reset" with China and "the prospect of peace on the Korean peninsula." Now granted - I'm not a penny-ante talking head at a third rate think tank but apparently I could be. - "booming economy and stock market" - the guy let the Republicans pass the tax cut they wanted while also failing to scrap Obamacare. Lo and behold, the investor class has poured into equities. And now they're ripping out.. - "no new foreign wars" - we're now standing on our own with Iran (the EU is now configuring a competitor to SWIFT so they can deal with Iran without using US banking networks) and Saudi Arabia is murdering American correspondents in Turkish embassies. Not bloody bad for 20 months on the job. Meanwhile Trump railed for troop withdrawal from Syria in March and dropped all mention of it in April. That, for sure, is "realpolitik" - " politics or diplomacy based primarily on considerations of given circumstances and factors, rather than explicit ideological notions or moral and ethical premises". - "A significant degree of progress with China and Mexico" - we had NAFTA, now we have USMCA. The principle differences are that US dairy farmers can now sell milk powder to Canada and US automakers can protect 75% of automotive content from tariffs instead of 62%. But put a pin in that - and remember that Trump promised to "terminate" NAFTA, not renegotiate powdered milk. - "a needed reset on the China relationship" - Yeah, China is now dealing directly with Iran, Harley Davidson is shifting production to Thailand and India and Ford is laying off 12% of its workforce having lost a billion dollars but hey at least we have - "the prospect of peace on the Korean peninsula." See, thing is, we've had peace on the Korean peninsula since 1958. What we've also had is a dictatorial regime whose prison camps make Auschwitz look humanitarian that is propped up entirely by an internal cult of personality shunned by the rest of the world. The goal has always been an end to the North Korean regime, not "peace on the Korean peninsula." Said regime, by the way, has given up zero weapons and that internal cult of personality is now the object of "love" from the leader of the free world. So where does that put us? I pay George Friedman every month to hear what he has to say and allow me to assert with no quaver in my voice that when George Friedman says "a more normal structure in which the nation-state is dominant" he's describing a VERY BAD THING. The United States has grown to be the world economic leader through soft power and influence and "a more normal structure" is one of trade disputes and frequent warfare. When George Friedman talks about a return to normalcy he's talking about shit like this: Realpolitik: Publicist, journalist and liberal political reformer Von Rochau coined the term in 1853 and added a second volume in 1869 that further refined his earlier arguments. Rochau, exiled in Paris until the 1848 uprising, returned during the revolution and became a well-known figure in the national liberal party. As the liberal gains of the 1848 revolutions fell victim to coercive governments or were swallowed by powerful social forces such as class, religion and nationalism, Rochau—according to Bew—began to think hard about how the work that had begun with such enthusiasm had failed to yield any lasting results. He said that the great achievement of the Enlightenment had been to show that might is not necessarily right. The mistake liberals made was to assume that the law of the strong had suddenly evaporated simply because it had been shown to be unjust. Rochau wrote that "to bring down the walls of Jericho, the Realpolitiker knows the simple pickaxe is more useful than the mightiest trumpet". Rochau's concept was seized upon by German thinkers in the mid and late 19th century and became associated with Otto von Bismarck's statecraft in unifying Germany in the mid 19th century. By 1890, usage of the word Realpolitik was widespread, yet increasingly detached from its original meaning. As originally coined, "realpolitik" meant "why we lose even though we hold the moral high ground." As used now, "realpolitik" means "doing what works despite moral or ethical constraints." In realpolitik, locking children in cages is supposed to keep people from daring the border, not increase their attempts. What kind of asshole views dismay at the demise of The American Project as "smugness?"In 2017, I hosted a podcast with George Friedman, who described the post-World War II system as a “freak” and predicted that the world is returning to “a more normal structure in which the nation-state is dominant, international trade is intense but managed by states for their own benefit, and where this idea that the nation-state is obsolete goes away.”
Realpolitik emerged in mid-19th century Europe from the collision of the Enlightenment with state formation and power politics. The concept, Bew argues, was an early attempt at answering the conundrum of how to achieve liberal enlightened goals in a world that does not follow liberal enlightened rules.
Proper use of “realpolitik” aside, I think Trump is a two term president. I think his “failures” are more often seen as accomplishments in his constituents eyes and that he has “successes,” he can point to to legitimize his obsene nature. People will forgive an obscene emperor if their bellies are full, they feel safe and the emperor only bullies the “others.” Question is, are their bellies full and do they feel safe? If the answer is “yes,” then we are fawked. The left is making the same mistake they made with Bush. They’re assuming trump is stupid and unaccomplished. He’s not. He’s a fucking genious when it comes to populism and he’s accomplishing a fuck-ton, just not a fuck ton the left cares about. Improsoning brown babies... left is enraged and the right sees their messiah. Two terms. By the way, I called his presidency when we were in the first GOP debates. It’s somewhere here on Hubski. Left needs to wake up and realize they’re not playing with some lucky fool. This guy is legit.
You were right and I was wrong about Trump being a one-term president. I deeply hope you're wrong about Trump being a two-term president. That aside, the argument made by the article (and the argument you're making here) is that Trump has some sort of crazy-like-a-fox strategy that is allowing him to "get things done." And it's just not true. I'm not going to make the arguments again because apparently you ignored them the first time so repeating myself isn't going to edify either one of us. I will cheerfully agree that setbacks are being portrayed as victories and the status quo is being portrayed as a revolution but objectively speaking, Trump has accomplished exactly dick. The Republican establishment is cheerfully using his malignant neglect to let the government drown in the bathtub, to be sure - but aside from the populism, he's got nuthin'. And populism will go a long way, to be sure. But you can't eat it, and it won't keep a roof over your head. It's the little things: we've got a project in shop class we might not get to do this year because steel tariffs have pushed it out of the budget. And if a pissant little technical college in Boeing's back yard can't get steel, how's Kenworth doing? Caterpillar? John Deere? One thing about populist governments: they come and go quickly.
https://www.npr.org/2018/09/12/646708799/fact-check-who-gets-credit-for-the-booming-u-s-economy Continuing a trend set in 2010, with no acceleration one into a stolen seat, and one the most contentious nomination process since at least Clarence Thomas Definitely all under the President's control. despite campaign promises to significantly cut down trade relations with Canada and Mexico following in the footsteps of Obama's Asia Pivot Literally the article linked here is about the US' reluctance to support a peace treaty. I mean, come on. the fuck.booming economy and stock market
unemployment level at a nearly 50-year low
two Supreme Court appointments
no new foreign wars or domestic terrorist attacks emanating from abroad
a significant degree of progress on trade relations with Canada and Mexico
a “needed reset” on the China relationship
the prospect of peace on the Korean Peninsula
I find this kind of desperate and reaching. I mean on his list of achievements.... I mean how is hiring somebody to fill a previously filled position an achievement ? Somebody quits at your company and you’ll fill the job, ya ? That’s not an achievement, if that person goes on to do good things then you can say you pick employees well. Or let’s say your employees generally stay with the company you could, unlike the trump administration, claim your workplace culture helps you retain staff. This isn’t the end of smugness this is the lowering of the bar on what’s considered an achievement in an attempt to make everything okay again. two Supreme Court appointments
I agree. Also I'm not sure what the reference to Rick and Morty brings to the debate? It's a successful enough show that has some slapstick humour (sorry I'm British) in it, but I'm not sure that it defines an entire new zeitgeist?