- The Chinese and Russians did not want a powerful North Korea; they wanted a buffer state between themselves and American forces in the south. They wanted a North Korea strong enough to deter an American attack, and they wanted the regime to survive. But as always, a strong North Korea could face two ways. In its current configuration it faced south. With regime change it could face north. Therefore, the Russians and the Chinese, split though they were during the latter part of the Cold War, together created a paradox in North Korea. They sought to retain a regime that blocked any American adventures northward and put the South Koreans and the Americans on the defensive. They did not want the regime to fall and thus create a vacuum that could create an opening for the Americans, but they also didn’t want North Korea strong enough to threaten them.
Both the Soviets and Chinese understood that simply being communist was no longer sufficient grounds for an alliance. The Soviets and Chinese had become enemies in spite of a shared ideology. Neither wanted the other to use North Korea as a tool against it. We should add that South Korea and the United States themselves were not eager to see the North Korean regime fall. South Korea did not want to bear the expense and risks involved in reintegration. The United States was content with the status quo in the Korean Peninsula, as its primary interest there was minimal conflict. And out of this paradoxical strategy emerged the contemporary North Korean state.
I really find the whole situation, and North Korea itself, fascinating. In a morbid kind of way. With all their posturing and shooting shells into the sea; be it testing or showing off, whatever the case may be - would they really attack anyone? The general Reddit opinion seems to be that "It's all a cry for aid" - but I wonder if they really would go through with an attack. They appear to have the motive and the capability to attack, say, Seoul, but surely they'd have the hammer dropped on them soon after and it would be pointless attacking when you know you'll be destroyed for doing so. Unless they're fueled by such hatred they actually want to see their enemies burn even if it means certain death for themselves? Ahh I dunno. It's a weird scenario.
The sad thing though, is that none of their weapons actually work. They demonstrate their "ICBMs" launching to impress their own people... and then the inert thing falls into the sea as soon as it is out of eyesight. Their submarines are 1950's designs that can easily be tracked with high school electronics capabilities. It's all smoke and mirrors and posturing. But, I'm afraid once you get enough inbred generations down the line, one of these Fearless Leaders is gonna believe their own hype, and invade South Korea.... and they are ALL going to be slaughtered six feet away from the fence, because they are just not an actual force, by any measure. And now these idiot children have some sort of nukes that may or may not work on top of rockets that have a 70% failure rate (or something ridiculous like that), and it's just not going to go well for them. And so the North Korean regime and state fails. Then what?!? We now have an entire country worth of poorly educated adults, with the cognitive abilities of 9-year olds, and enormous national pride... which will be crushed the day they see an iPhone. What the hell does the world do with 25 million useless people?!? Train every one of them to become basic factory workers? Ok, yeah, I'm being hyperbolic here, but North Korea will eventually fall. Their population's hearts will be crushed to find out they are the laughingstock of the world. And then what? How do they feed themselves? How do they enter into the world market? Who the hell is going to invest in a country that has little electrical infrastructure, few roads, and no relevant current-market capabilities? North Korea with nukes? That doesn't worry me in the least. They are as likely to nuke themselves just trying to launch a missile. It's when the regime fails, that I am worried about.
There's a good documentary on Netflix about North Korea called The Propaganda Game. It seemed to show a surprisingly normal day-to-day life for the North Koreans. At least compared to what I imagined. And also tempered by the fact that the government wouldn't let the filmmakers out of their sight. It's also got this crazy Spanish defector who's famous for defecting and seems to be employed as professional human propaganda.
Huh. Rationally speaking, North Korea couldn’t possibly launch a nuclear strike. Therefore, it was critical for North Korea to appear irrational. Only apparent irrationality, meticulously managed, could convince the Americans, South Koreans, Japanese, Russians, and Chinese that North Korea was utterly dangerous. But the regime’s apparent irrationality had to be calibrated in such a way that North Korea’s dangerousness was never so credible or imminent that someone would preemptively attack it. It had to preserve the regime and paralyze its opponents without forcing military action by its adversaries.