- The first was the IPO of Mackie Designs, Inc. This is a sound equipment company that was essentially dominant in their market segment (mixers). They were run by great people who knew what they were doing and had fierce brand loyalty. They went public in 1994, and I had no money to invest (being 20 years old). Astonishingly, however, Mackie never reached its IPO price. Its stock floundered for a few years, then was eventually delisted in 1998 or so. Mackie is still around. They have more market share than they ever did. They're still an industry leader and they've expanded. The "stock market" never saw them as a value, however. - The second was November 2001. I was having lunch with a buddy who was a VP at Real Networks. I jokingly asked him how his options were doing. "We're down 15 points," he said. I looked at him dumbfounded. What the fuck happened? "Our dividend was two cents less per share than market expectations," he said. WTF? "Yeah, it's kind of amazing. We beat our estimates by three cents. We're declaring a dividend. But since the analysts said we'd be delivering a nine cent dividend and we only delivered a six cent dividend, our stock dropped fifteen dollars in an hour. It's amazing - we're the only profitable dot com right now. We've been profitable for years. We're declaring a dividend. And our stock took a 20% beating." It's fucking STUPID that people who, BY LAW, know less about your company than you do are allowed to determine your company's value. It's almost as fucking stupid as Tesla having more market cap than General Motors, or Facebook being more highly valued than General Electric. Facebook could vanish tomorrow and people would be mildly put out. General Electric could vanish tomorrow and there'd be no lightbulbs.
Google disappearing would fuck my life: I have tons of things stored on Gmail. I also would have to go back to Firefox, which wouldn't be bad, just slower. Now, if Wikipedia disappeared...
I have three things to say to that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxKYuF9pENQ http://youtu.be/dP1WQ7FP0g8 http://youtu.be/sDjUzQrqII8 A good friend of mine put it thusly: "It's like that moment when the cops flip on the lights and pull the plug on the DJ. Party's over and everybody files out." THAT is Final Cut X. We're all scrambling to decide if we're going Media Composer or Premiere - one thing we all know is that we're not going to Final Cut X. Me? After coming over to Mac purely because they they stopped developing Logic for Windows when Apple bought Emagic in 2002, I'm now $3500 into Pro Tools - a program I've been studiously avoiding since 1994. I reserved a $1000 Media Composter "Crossgrade" about four months ago because I was leaning that way, but since I'm not doing any editing right now I can afford to wait. Glad I did, as had I bought that $1000 Composter license for 5.5 they still woulda hit me for $595 to upgrade to 5.6... and they've announced 6. If you asked me which I hated more right now, Apple or Avid, I'd have to think pretty hard. It's funny - Apple is discontinuing Firewire and throwing everything behind Thunderbolt. The one computer they make that doesn't have a Thunderbolt port? The Mac Pro. Apple has been threatening to kill their pro division for a year or so now. If I had to guess, we'll all be on Windows or Linux in five years. Final Cut and Logic are the only apps that aren't available on Windows.
Also, Jimmy Wales once responded to a comment I made on a blog with a very thoughtful reply. Also, Jimmy Wales is a self-professed "Objectivist to the core" but he runs a non-profit donation-only site. Wikipedia rocks.
1. FB - I would be better off because I wouldn't feel compelled to see the ridiculous crap my mother and other family members are posting. I wouldn't have to sit through BS discussions at work (from people that don't know dick about society or media) about how to leverage social media to increase traction and profitability or how to leverage it as a prospecting tool. -Ugh. 2. Google: This would suck only from a search engine standpoint. They're the best at it. I could take or leave nearly any other platform they have. 3. Apple: I would miss my iPhone. I use it a lot and I strongly believe it's the best "smartphone" out there. I would miss my MacBook Air but I'll be honest here, I could use a PC and still be alright. MP3 player is my phone these days. Don't use apple for anything else. 4. Rarely use Amazon, wouldn't miss it at all. Now my wife on the other hand, she's all over Amazon. Overall, I don't think much would change in my life. I think I would just find replacement services/products. A more interesting question (IMO) would be: Thought experiment: Social media, smartphones and online retailers disappear overnight. Are you better or worse off? -That I'd have to give more thought to.
Google and Apple I would miss for searches and iPod, respectively, but I would manage easily. FB sucks donkey scrotum and I don't use it, so its already dead to me.
The term "conventional wisdom", even though its now used broadly, was coined by John Kenneth Galbraith in The Affluent Society to deride main stream thinking in economics. I think that book is a work of genius and it should be required reading for anyone who studies business, engineering or social science in college. I really puts a spotlight on the kind of libertarian-style capitalism that we have leaning toward for a half century now. And, using analyses from as far back as the fathers of modern economics, especially Ricardo and Malthus, explains why the only possible result of unregulated capital markets is essentially feudalism. Its policies like stock speculation that make Galbraith look especially prescient. Would anyone in their right mind claim that they created value if they had a good day at the craps table? No. You got a piece of someone else's pie through good luck. On a side note, Forbes has been on a role lately. I have hated their opinion pieces for a long time, but in the last several months, they've started to publish some sensible articles. I never thought I would see that day.
Kidding. I don't think that's it. I think Forbes has made some serious editorial choices. They'll still throw shit like this http://hubski.com/pub?id=9728 and this http://www.forbes.com/sites/billflax/2011/09/01/obama-hitler... (Hitler was actually a left winger, and capitalists are now persecuted just like the like Jews!) at you from time to time, but I think that their readership maybe isn't as ideologically conservative as they once thought. They seem to have made an effort to center it up a bit.
When stocks are bought and sold, both sides are satisfied after the transaction. Does that make a difference?Would anyone in their right mind claim that they created value if they had a good day at the craps table? No. You got a piece of someone else's pie through good luck.
That's clear. It's also obvious that the "someone else" would be happy to reverse the transaction if they could.