"The really important kind of freedom involves attention, and awareness, and discipline, and effort, and being able truly to care about other people and to sacrifice for them, over and over, in myriad petty little unsexy ways, every day."
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That average new grad? Me. Except higher rent 'cause Boston and lower transportation costs 'cause MBTA (at least for another week - then it's RTD for me!). I did an IBR plan, so I have a cell phone.
I think I'm kinda murky on your overall point here though. I don't think anyone's drawing a distinction between forgiveness and bankruptcy in this dialogue. They're the same thing in my mind at least, and I said that already ("i.e. debt forgiveness or generational bankruptcy"). And if you're predicting a choice between massive, gullible fuck-up (option #2 above) or slow, throttling burn (option #1), then so am I. And to be clear, option #2 won't work.
So maybe I'm missing it, but what I'm trying to point out is that this problem is going to get more and more serious as time passes and the usual schedule of generational maturation is stymied. Plenty of people who didn't take out the loans will be affected. One example are Boomers and the housing market, but there'll be others too.
And the more effect it has, the more people think an easy-peasy jubileezy will work, or will say it would work: Olds, Youngs, Political Husks, Corporate Demon Puppeteers. A whole generation (and probably the one following) of late financial bloomers is going to attract a lot of attention.
"Where are my debt-friendly, Millennial consumers!?!"
"Eating the rich."
Or that's what the memes say at least.
But we won't do that. Instead we'll keep the $50k jobs and pay monthly minimums and never have home equity and pipe-dream the next 20 years away, unless we're lied to about the viability of debt forgiveness by a Husk "who gets it." In which case we'll zeitgeist quick, because that's all anyone my age ever thinks about and fuck the arithmetic. And I don't think that movement will just be sub-30s. And I don't think it'll work.
Source? I think your math's wrong. Or maybe mine is.
With 4% interest (closer to the subsidized rate for 2022 grads these days) and no payments towards principle or interest at all for 20 years, the loan doubles but interest accumulation per year is just shy of $3500 at year 20. Not easy to make on $15k/year, but no one's making it 20 years without intervention. Wage garnishments kick in about a year and a half after default notice and a collections referral (interest accumulation per year at around $1.6k, manageable). I have four friends in this situation right now.
A collections agency will take up to 15% of your income to pay down the debt. At minimum wage, that more than covers interest with a little to spare for principle, so it's paid down as long as the debtor works somewhere - APRs are just so low. And you'll live, just with roommates and side gigs mentioned above.
It's a slow bleed, not exsanguination. They need the debtor livestock to live.
Yeah, I read Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained too. It's been out long enough. We all know job prospects are shit in the coming decades. People who don't know that yet are still voting R. But ya don't need a fancy corporate desk job to pay down $40k in 20 years. Garnished Starbucks paychecks will do just fine too.
We agree that Boomers have an incentive (recognized or not) to not let this debt restrict equity creation in younger generations, no? That was my main point, so if that's clear then we're good. I was replying to this: "Relieving their debt will not power consumption (so will say the old rich white people)." Whether the Olds realize it or whether they prefer to grip their withered jewels at us, debt forgiveness would power consumption in their interests.
But so "...because it better be. Everyone's counting on it." wasn't me saying shrug "It'll work out, let's ignore the facts." The situation is grim, and (as you know) this debt doesn't work like other debt. We're all stuck with it until it's (1) paid, (2) collective undue hardship is proven (i.e. debt forgiveness or generational bankruptcy), or (3) we die and/or the loan expires.
As the social/economic realities come to bear and the voting population reflects the people carrying the burden (in unsellable/uncompetitive home equity or debt liability) rather than gaining from it, we might see support shift from #1 to #2. And we'll see some creative politicians who want to keep their jobs and are willing to lie about the arithmetic to do it. Because it might not be subject to hope or threat, but it is subject to manipulation.
We'd still all be fucked of course.
Baby Boomers own 32 million homes. Two out of five in America. They'll want to sell their extra ones as retirement approaches. Especially when their social security starts falling out the bottom.
Millennials, saddled with a cool $40k of student loan debt at the start of their careers, aren't looking to take on more long-term debt. No house mortgage for me, thanks. A generation of renters and roommates, sure, I'll skate around buying a house until it's absolutely necessary. When I know I'm sticking around or whatever that means. We all saw our parents get fucked in '08, not trying for a repeat - although that'll probably happen anyway.
And honestly, $20k-$40k of debt is not a lifelong issue. It's payable. So it'll get paid off usually and eventually. This is the next generation of America's workforce, and we're getting a later start than usual. So yeah, there's no generational earnings yet, because Boomers are retiring later and later. Hogging all those good, non-gig economy jobs with benefits and salaries. But there will be, because Boomers will retire some day. And the $1.4 trillion in debt will be paid off because it better be. Everyone's counting on it.
The problem is student loans are slowing the generational transition of equity. It's slowing Millennial home ownership, which is culturally signified real adulthood. It's slowing Boomer retirement plans and equity values because greedy dicks love an expensive house or three and won't be able to push them off. And it'll kick all these problems a little farther down the road as Gen Z comes across all the same shit in 10 years but worse. It probably won't be a big enough issue to require debt forgiveness, but it also really might.
There's incentive for Boomers to get on board, but they'll probably just blame Millennials for ruining retirement too, along with everything else.
Probably not what's expected, but my wife was making beef au jus and joked that the only missing ingredient was me (I don't join her in Denver until later this month).
I was in a Halloween-y mood, so I wrote this to tease her. I'm sorry in advance.
Pierced by my ankles
You hang me to dry,
And there 'cross my neck
Slashed your knife to the bone.
"It's done now!" I cry.
No more can I groan.
Down through my veins
Spills my blood through the slit,
And there pools below
In the vat from my limbs
Into the pit
Where the churning sauce brims.
And that afternoon
One can see you again,
Dunking my corpse
In a vat-full of sin.
You look up from eating
With a thousand yard stare
"Take my french dip, bitch."
You double-dog dare.
So what's your preferred scenario here? What's your hill?
It seems like you'd rather the news media not report on the series of assassination attempts throughout the week. Then, only once the suspect was caught (because that's "news" now, or wtfever), would they begin reporting on those efforts and the identity of the perpetrator? Go screw.
The right-wing would have a field day with that. Reports coming out of the blue after a weeklong, behind-the-scenes manhunt would look exactly like how they picture a false flag. (1) Media selectively not reporting until after (2) the identity of the perp was known to be right-wing by (3) an apparently covert FBI investigation on (4) behalf of Dem leaders, to then (5) plaster that negative coverage all over broadcasting stations for (6) prime time coverage 2 weeks before midterms to (7) energize the last push in the Blue Wave. They'd say it was a setup, and any of those talking points would be convincing to many. Some are already in use with the current story, but 1, 2, 3 & 4 would fuck your preferred series of events up badly.
Instead, the right-wing bit HARD on this, and pushed bogus claims for a week straight about this being a false flag op. Now they've got to eat their own fucking shit, because news media reported the facts all along, regardless of outcome, which was strategically and ethically the right thing to do.
So no. You're wrong. It's been news the entire time, and media has done the responsible thing by making the people aware of the facts as they occur, and protecting the story from manipulation by week-long, transparent reporting. Anything else would have been a failure of their civic and professional duty as the fourth estate,
It's now our duty as citizens to not allow an authoritarian reaction, ours to not allow shock or fear or jaded whinging online to create an even more dangerous atmosphere after these events.
But you've already kowtowed to the defeatist attitude the Right was fucking praying you'd adopt on this issue. Holy shit, you're their wet dream in some of the worst optics they've had for months!
So go ahead, blame the media for telling you what was happening as it was happening, which is their goddamn job. And blame them too for the reactions of the American people, which is fucking not. Because that's how the Right gets away with this again: blame the victim for getting hit and saying something.
Shit man, I don't know what type of authority you have on what's "news" and what's not, but thank fuck no one's asking you to come up with reporting policy about it.
10+ pipe bombs (and counting) sent to Democratic leaders is fucking news. This isn't a distraction; these are poorly executed assassination attempts at the "meddlesome priest" behest of our current president.
Go soak your fat head, this is news.
edit: ya this is fucking news...smdh