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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  504 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 9, 2022

Because the people doing the predictions need to be taken out back and beaten with a pillowcase full of nickels.

Polling is broken and the chattering class has utterly lost touch. People point to the 2016 elections and say "look how much they learned" and try something vaguely different and eat just as much shit as before.

Uncertainty has returned to political outcomes, but it's due to opacity of the electorate rather than chicanery of the process.





Quatrarius  ·  504 days ago  ·  link  ·  

turns out that if you report percentage likelihood instead of predicting winners you can literally never be proven wrong because you give every result a chance of winning

user-inactivated  ·  504 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don't see how there's that much wiggle room left. The Senate is 48/48 now, with Alaska all but assured R, so the best possible case is 51/49. And through blatant hacky partisanship from the supreme courts that allow Republican gerrymandering but deny it for Democrats, there's essentially no hope of keeping the house.

Most of the results are in already and there's been very little surprises so far. Just the same tedious dread seeing that 48% or so of the voting country seem to care more about inflation than their fellow man.

kleinbl00  ·  503 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Bitch did you not watch George W Bush win by 300 votes because the Republicans convinced the Supreme Court that a bunch of Florida Jews voted for Pat Buchanan

Fuckin' Trump launched 60 lawsuits over the idea of "finding 16,000 votes" or whateverthefuck. Recalibrate your idea of "wiggle room." It only works in a Town called Perfect.

user-inactivated  ·  503 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Wasn't trying to start an argument, just confused, sorry. Totally agreed that the courts stole the election in 2000, that pollsters routinely get things terribly wrong, and that any predicted red wave or trump resurgence thankfully never happened.

My point was mostly that I feel like Biden 's first term was already lame duck due to Manchen and now it will be slightly lamer with the house flipped too.

kleinbl00  ·  503 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My apologies. I'm in a shitty mood. It's stupidly difficult being me sometimes.

I think they're going to indict Trump, he's going to be convicted on something tiny, become ineligible to run for the presidency, and then they're going to legalize weed.

It's what I'd do.

uhsguy  ·  502 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If democrats actually wanted to win they would do that, im not convinced they do. The ideal win is like it is right now, loose one chamber have the president accomplish nothing but collect lots of donations while waving your hands and taking loudly

kleinbl00  ·  502 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Democrats have to do whatever keeps their donor base happy. Since Republicans have basically poked their donor base in the eye, the Democrats are slowly but surely testing the waters.

uhsguy  ·  502 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I agree I just think they optimal point of that is almost in power but not quite powerful enough to be accountable . That’s the maximum cash extraction points for them. If they were fully in power the base would expect laws to get passed and things to further their interests. In this stalemate they can ask for more money because they are so close, but then deliver nothing in return.

kleinbl00  ·  502 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the market, though. The money is made by spending some time legislating, developing some name recognition, and then pivot into lobbying.

Donations as a candidate have to be begged for every goddamn day. Donations as a lobbyist are invoiced. It's substantially easier. At a fundamental level, the guys who don't pivot into lobbying are there because they like the feeling of power, and the feeling of power is substantially diluted by failure.

user-inactivated  ·  500 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Sometimes I see politics play out and I think "Man if i had less of a moral compass I'd probably do quite well in this realm." Then I look about 3cm deeper than the surface and back the fuck away.

kleinbl00  ·  500 days ago  ·  link  ·  

the year I started a cult

If I needed and wanted the attention of my fellow man a whole helluva lot more I'd fuckin' rawk at that shit.

user-inactivated  ·  500 days ago  ·  link  ·  

What an excellent tale.

Aside from the final line tying a neat bow on everything, I think my favourite part is "we seek your benefaction in pursuit of mechanical excellence". It just tickled me.

uhsguy  ·  502 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If democrats actually wanted to win they would do that, im not convinced they do. The ideal win is like it is right now, loose one chamber have the president accomplish nothing but collect lots of donations while waving your hands and taking loudly