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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: PM Abe asks all Japan's schools to close over coronavirus

    Good news is that kids are resilient:

To COVID-19 at least. They are nasty little germ vectors though.

    Tierno said much remains unknown about the virus. ā€œIā€™m not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax,ā€ he said, meaning the disease appears to go away before recurring.

Oh GOOD.





kingmudsy  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·  

HOPEFULLY it's fine and this won't be A Thing

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-people-being-re-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-after-initial-recovery-e-g-case-reported-in-japan-where-a-woman-has-been-confirmed-as-a-coronavirus-case-for-2nd-time/

    Assuming that there is a minimal possibility of misdiagnosis, it still remains unclear from the published reports whether the person involved was likely re-infected, or whether this represents an infection that may have been partially cleared or perhaps has gone latent. In either case, given the number of reported cases thus far, it would seem unlikely that this is a common occurrence, and thus should have only a small impact on the overall epidemic projections themselves. Of possibly greater concern are the implications for control measures ā€“ should quarantine periods be extended? It also makes contact tracing even more difficult, potentially straining resources.
kleinbl00  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·  

It tracks, though.

Presume our model says R0 is 2.2. LANL says R0 is between 4.7 and 6.6 - one way to square those two results is to presume a plurality of cases are asymptomatic. An R0 of 2.2 with mysteriously unknown spread could look a lot like an R0 of 4.7 for a highly asymptomatic, biphasic illness.

So. You're gonna get it, you might not even know, and it's extremely unlikely to kill you. But if you do, it'll be the flu. I mean, it responds to Tamiflu. From a lay perspective it's basically gonna be a really shitty flu season... which means if you're in a population that needs to worry a lot about the flu, you should be worried.

am_Unition  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·  

When my wife taught a kindergarten class, she'd catch kids doing things like licking the bottoms of their shoes. LOL

Anyway, someone told me like a week ago that covid19 kills mostly teenagers and old folks, and that was when I decided I'm totally on board.

Just kidding, sorry guys. We're all gonna be fine, anyway. Reports are coming in that Mike Pence began furiously praying a couple of hours ago.

Agree with elsewhere in this thread: It makes sense that relapse or reinfection is drastically raising the transmissibility. If that's actually true, and we've not yet heard it from China, they have some 'splainin' to do.

kleinbl00  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Well it hasn't killed anyone under 9 and seems to mostly fuck with people with pre-existing conditions (like being over 70). But yeah I can ask my daughter "why don't you like susie?" and she'll say "because she eats the play-dough".

Honesty? My kid's school used to be expensive with lots of scholarships. We were one of them. All my kid's friends were. And we had two outbreaks of lice, three outbreaks of strep and my kid had a massive case of molluscum for eighteen fucking months.

Now my kid's school is less expensive with almost no scholarships. All my kid's friends left. And we haven't so much as had a stomach flu. I mean, it sucks from a diversity standpoint - we only see the black kid who decided she was a girl at birthday parties now. But from an epidemiological standpoint, go rich white people.

am_Unition  ·  1490 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah, I never get the flu, but I never interact with kids, and I'm a shut in. That's grad school.

But still, I go to the gym on the reg. That's probably my biggest susceptibility. Was planning to get a squat rack in a few months, might go for it sooner, now.

If/when I get covid19, I will report back on how it responds to ethanol.