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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Brexit looks likely.

You miss the point: the EU won't become more bureaucratic, it'll suck down time and energy getting back to the level of bureaucracy it already has.

Trade agreements don't happen overnight. Look at it this way - EuroCorp has a problem. The Anglophile's Union has just voted to strike. EuroCorp must now renegotiate its union contract with Anglophile or else it gets no fish'n'chips, Monty Python or bomber parts. Worse than that, the Anglophile's Union is talking about busting up Local 101 into two locals, both of which will need to renegotiate, and the Irish Spring contingent is talking about joining O'Shaughnessey's.

That's just to get back to zero.

Meanwhile, Le Victor Hugos have noticed that the Anglophile's Union are renegotating their contract, maybe they should? Las Tortillas and the Cannolis have been threatening to bolt for half a decade and the Spanikopetas almost walked out of the building a half-dozen times last year. They might not be under renegotiation now, but neither were the Anglophiles this time last year. So while that isn't erupting, it isn't settled, either.

Uncle Sam Corp across the street? None of these issues. The Tandoori Oven? Ascendant and devoid of union problems. The Argentinian Steakhouse has different problems and the bikini waxers just north are about to be under new management but those issues don't have the time horizon of collective bargaining agreements and restructuring.

Will it take ten years? I have no better idea than anyone else. It'll take a while, though, and it won't be good for increasing Europes competiveness on the world market in the meantime. After? Well, that's the point - making Europe more competitive while also providing better living conditions for the people doing the work.

I've been through a few strikes. They take forever and nobody ends up happy.





illu45  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I agree that there will likely be some new bureaucracy created by Brexit, but I don't think its impact is likely to be all that significant in the grand scheme of things because:

A) The EU already has tons of bureaucracy. Compared to all of the meetings on migration, the environment, food safety, transport, inter-EU trade partnerships, non-EU trade partnerships, Antici/Mertens meetings etc. etc. the meetings with the UK will unlikely be a significant additional burden on the EU. They may be a more significant burden on the UK, but it's difficult to know for sure.

B) There likely would have been new bureaucracy regardless of how the vote went. Given how close it was, I'm sure that there would have been efforts by Cameron and co. to shift the UK's role within the EU, which would have similarly led to new meetings. The meetings are probably going to be more numerous than they would have been if Remain won, but they might actually be more efficient due to Brexit, since both parties want to limit uncertainty and the fastest way of doing that is to get new agreements signed ASAP.

Your strike analogy implies that all UK-EU trade and production is going to suddenly cease until new agreements are in place. EU-UK trade today is pretty much the same today as it was yesterday. Will EU investment in the UK will decrease until new agreements are in place? Probably. But it's not like factory workers walked out of a job. The workers will keep working, trucks/ships will keep trucking/shipping, and bureaucrats will keep on bureaucratizing. This isn't your employees going on strike. This is your employees deciding they want to switch to a different union in a bargaining year. Sure, you'll have to negotiate a new contract, but you likely would have had to do that anyway.

EDIT: As for comparisons to other countries, they all have bureaucratic trade deals and coalitions, from the TPP and NAFTA to BRICS and the SCO. All of those require a significant amount of bureaucratic upkeep, and each of them was created without setting member states back a decade in terms of trade.

kleinbl00  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You aren't paying attention.

Yes, the EU has tons of bureaucracy. But now, instead of slowly phasing some out and phasing some in, now they've all been challenged and the agreements between the EU and UK are about to be cancelled.

It's the difference between "we can work this out" and "we're re-negotiating everything."

EU-UK trade today is the same as it was yesterday. But when they push the button on Article 50, it won't be. And meanwhile, every other member state is going to fight this very battle.

I didn't say they were striking. I said they voted to strike. A strike authorization is where bureaucracy gets really ugly. Meanwhile, work continues apace.

Do you understand now?

illu45  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    You aren't paying attention.

No... I am paying attention. I just disagree with you. Let's keep the condescension out of this, okay?

    But now, instead of slowly phasing some out and phasing some in, now they've all been challenged and the agreements between the EU and UK are about to be cancelled.

The EU-UK trade agreements are unlikely to be cancelled until new ones are put into place. It wouldn't benefit anyone.

    EU-UK trade today is the same as it was yesterday. But when they push the button on Article 50, it won't be

Article 50 isn't a Big Red Button that suddenly nukes all trade agreements. In fact, it's a fantastically vague section of a treaty, which means that exactly how Brexit will work after Article 50 is invoked (whenever that happens) will be up to the UK and the EU, and I doubt that either side is going to go for an option that causes a sudden drop in trade between them, considering that both sides benefit from that trade.

    And meanwhile, every other member state is going to fight this very battle.

Maybe. Maybe not. Undoubtedly separatist/nationalist parties will get a bit of a boost for a while, which may or may not continue on depending on how exactly Brexit pans out for the UK. But referenda take a long time to put together, and the UK was arguably much better-positioned for an exit than a lot of other member states. It remains to be seen if the extra boost actually gives other member states the kind of momentum that they would need in order to get to a referendum of their own, much less to vote Leave.

    A strike authorization is where bureaucracy gets really ugly. Meanwhile, work continues apace.

You've been arguing that the first sentence is key. I have been arguing that the second sentence is much more important than the first. Work will continue apace, despite the new bureaucracy. Will the bureaucracy get ugly? Possibly. As I said, Article 50 hasn't even been invoked yet, so I'd say it's a bit premature to make calls on how the logistics will play out in the long run.

snoodog  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I didn't say they were striking. I said they voted to strike. A strike authorization is where bureaucracy gets really ugly. Meanwhile, work continues apace.

Good analogy. I didn't catch that in your previous post.

goobster  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I disagree. The only thing Britain gave the EU was a financial hub. Now that the British economy is tanking (and 40% of Britain's total value is the land in and around London), the Brits have nothing the EU needs.

The next problem is the Spanish election in two days... do the voters take the Brexit path, or do they double-down on the enormous benefits they have reaped from their recent economic turnaround, and keep the incumbents in place?

This is the "tipping point" domino for the EU, in my mind.

kleinbl00  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

5 billion pounds of imports from Germany alone, just last month. World's 5th largest economy. It's not as simple as you want it to be.

The "next problem" could be any one of a dozen things, and it's absolutely the "tipping point" for the EU in nearly everyone's mind... but Europe has to trade with itself and with others and whether you call that the EU or CheeseEaters Inc. is going to be a lengthy and expensive process that Europe is now required to go through.

snoodog  ·  2833 days ago  ·  link  ·  

According to KB's link major export of nuclear reactors, train cars, pharmacy, aircraft and photo equip.

goobster  ·  2832 days ago  ·  link  ·  

True... none of which the Brits are known for, nor do they produce a markedly superior version than others on the market.

Now put a trade wall in between your British supplier of train cars, and no trade restrictions between you and a potential Hungarian supplier... and see how quickly people move their money onto the Continent, and away from Britain.

And nations within the EU give priority to fellow EU nations, before going "offshore" for their suppliers, and...

I just don't think Britain holds any cards. At all. They bluffed, the players fanned their cards on the table, and the Brits were holding a Queen against the EU's Full House. Bam.