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comment by goobster
goobster  ·  2928 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Why Bernie Sanders Already Won

And that's my point. The Republican party, as it exists today, will not exist in 12 months. The Tea Party fragmentation was nothing like what they are gonna see when they lose to Hillary. The rats are already leaving the sinking ship, but they get to either run into the arms of David Duke, or... umm... Clinton? She's the most centrist Republican out there nowadays. The Tea Party is a joke, even amongst the Tea Partiers that got elected! That's over, and an embarrassing past that they will soon forget.

(And shit.... I'm old. Christine Whitman was my go-to "reasonable Republican" mannequin because of that amazing response she gave to the State of the Union speech... in, um... lemme check... oh fuck... 1995!! Ok. Point taken. Gotta retract that example and find another rational, reasonable, old school small-c conservative Republican to trot out...)

But, more to the point, in 2020 the remainder of the Republican party that can still manage to put its pants on, and not slobber too badly down the front of their power ties, will win against Hillary because her presidency is going to be a fucking disaster. Because she doesn't actually believe in anything. She just follows whatever the latest talking point is. And that's not leadership. That's the Secretary of State role, not the President.

So. She fails spectacularly to do anything of any substance at all.

So the Republicans prop up any ole idiot in 2020, and clear her out of office.

And then, that's when the dissolution of the Republican party starts to congeal around a truly, classically-defined "conservative" viewpoint. They get out of people's bedrooms. They get out of funding overseas crusades. They focus on infrastructure. They tell the religious right to go fuck themselves. They create comprehensive programs to help TWO GENERATIONS of veterans injured in the Middle East, and make them feel welcome and prosperous in their own country again.

THAT's the "conservatism" that could come out of the total dissolution of the Republican party that's coming in about 50 weeks.





kleinbl00  ·  2928 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Here's the problem - the fiscally-conservative, socially-liberal Republicans that Liked Ike can't afford to be Republicans anymore. You've got the rich, who want their taxes reduced, and you've got the poor, who want someone to protect them from ISIS and/or Caitlin Jenner. Back when the middle class was growing, you could stitch together a platform that might appeal to both of them but for the past 20 years or so the rich have had to trick the poor into voting against their interests through demagoguery. They've been so successful at it, though, that they can't grab any more money... and they're uncomfortable giving more social crazyness.

So who's voting for Nikki Haley? And why aren't they voting for Hillary Clinton? Because I'll say it again - she almost passed Hillarycare while Rush Limbaugh was actively accusing her of murder. Maybe she doesn't believe in anything. Fine by me - the '90s kinda worked out, yo. Really - Hillary Clinton is the nicest Republican you could vote for. That she's been a Democrat since 1968 definitely speaks to your point but I will take Little Finger over Ned Stark any day.

This magical Republican Party you envision, my friend, is the Democratic Party.

goobster  ·  2927 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think we are saying the same thing, just shouting at each other from two mountaintops next to each other.

Actual real life Republicans (like my Mom) are disgusted by what the Republican Party has become. It no longer reflects their conservative beliefs. I remember R friends just being astounded that the GOP cared about what people were doing in their bedrooms. I mean, totally flabbergasted. They were like, "Who cares? That ain't the governments' place to be."

But ever since George Jr, things have continued to get more histrionic and loony for the GOP. They've gone so far right they are coming around the other side again.

It's been FOUR Presidential terms since my Republican friends have openly called themselves "Republican", without immediately following that with a paragraph of caveats that sound like a Lipitor ad.

And I truly believe there is a huge majority of American Republicans that find the GOP repugnant, but won't vote for a Democrat. Ever.

NOBODY out there represents them. And they are being painted with the same brush as the Bundy idiots, Cruz, Trump, and every other repugnant fuck that says they are a Republican.

All those people are gonna go SOMEWHERE, and it sure isn't over to the Donkeys, and they've already written off the GOP. They aren't going to go for Rand Paul, or LaRouche, or any of those nutballs, either.

But I tell ya, if at the Republican National Convention John McCain stands up holding hands with Nikki Haley... even I'm gonna vote Republican. It'll be a landslide.

Republicans needs someone with classic republican values. Nowadays, with the data and analytical tools we have available to us, a truly classically "conservative" party would not only win, they would have a tremendous positive effect on all the issues people really care about on a day-to-day basis.

kleinbl00  ·  2927 days ago  ·  link  ·  

We're not, not entirely. I'm saying "actual real life republicans (like your mom)" have either bailed or are in denial. Robert Bork was '87, yo. When Bob Packwood says he is "convinced that Judge Bork . . . will do everything possible to cut and trim the liberties that the right of privacy protects" your "mainstream" Republicans are minority anachronisms. Before Nancy Reagan came out in favor of stem cell research, her husband embargoed that shit for 8 years. Then he proposed a constitutional amendment allowing prayer in schools.

The Republicans - like your mom - that are still hiding in their foxholes praying for a return to Buckley-era conservative thought are mostly in denial that the Democrats appropriated their platform long ago. The denial runs so deep that you're talking about voting for a member of the Keating Five. Meanwhile out in the world I've had to have the "death panel" discussion with people I like who still think Obama is a secret Muslim.

The people you're talking about are those so set in their ways they don't want to face the fact that their tribe hasn't given a fuck about them since the Iran hostage crisis. And that's where we disagree: nobody in the machine is going to wake up tomorrow and think "shit, we never should have listened to Grover Norquist!" It's all Taliban, all the time, and the people who know Barry Goldwater from something other than a history book are just the tail that the crazies know will vote for their cause until they die out of pure naked nostalgia.

The Koch brothers? Not Republicans. Libertarians. David fuckin ran for VP in 1980. Those caveats? Those are the party. Effectively, your mom's generation are saying "The one thing I'm not is a Democrat."

goobster  ·  2927 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I'm saying "actual real life republicans (like your mom)" have either bailed or are in denial.

But. This is it. "Bailed to where?" and "With how many others?"

The histrionics and theater of the last 12 months only account for a tiny fraction of the people in the US that call themselves "Republicans", and the number of disenfranchised Republicans continues to grow every time Trump opens his big dumb mouth.

Ironically, Trump supporters have started to wave signs that say "Silent Majority", without apparent ironic intent.

They miss that when a firebrand political fringe last self-applied that moniker, it was a spectacular failure. The media bought their story hook, line, and sinker, and then when they called for "100,000 Moral Majority members" to come out to the Capital Mall in protest, I think 2500 people showed up.

The "Moral Majority" moniker became a huge liability, and they couldn't even pay for airtime after that.

So. Today, a bunch of asshats are dancing around like lunatics in the town square, claiming they have an army outside the city gates. But as soon as they open the gates, like Munchausen, they are gonna find the fields empty. Or, more likely, populated with a few radical nutballs dressed like walls, who the Republicans wouldn't even let inside their gated communities, much less sit down to caucus with.

So what happens to all the disenfranchised Republicans? Are you saying they just man up and become Hillary Democrats?

kleinbl00  ·  2927 days ago  ·  link  ·  

"Bailed to the Democrats" and "With everyone else willing to swallow their tribalisms."

Going back to your mom & posse - the "Actual real-life Republicans" - I think it's fair to say that the following describes a disaffected voter:

    Actual real life Republicans (like my Mom) are disgusted by what the Republican Party has become. It no longer reflects their conservative beliefs. I remember R friends just being astounded that the GOP cared about what people were doing in their bedrooms. I mean, totally flabbergasted. They were like, "Who cares? That ain't the governments' place to be."

    But ever since George Jr, things have continued to get more histrionic and loony for the GOP. They've gone so far right they are coming around the other side again.

    It's been FOUR Presidential terms since my Republican friends have openly called themselves "Republican", without immediately following that with a paragraph of caveats that sound like a Lipitor ad.

You're reaching back to '81 to find examples of that "tiny fraction" failing to find traction. Ted Cruz was in 4th grade. Hell, Gorbachev had just hit the Politburo. There's so much history between then and now that it's barely worth mentioning. But you're using this example to prove that there are lessons to be learned by the modern Republican Party, as if the lunatic asshats hadn't been in place for generations.

The ARLRs have either been Democrats since 2008 or they haven't been paying attention. The barbarians have been inside the gates for decades. If Trump's what it takes for them to realize it, maybe he actually has done some good.

user-inactivated  ·  2928 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Because she doesn't actually believe in anything. She just follows whatever the latest talking point is. And that's not leadership. That's the Secretary of State role, not the President.

Worked for Reagan, and Clinton probably actually understands the current talking point. Leadership is overrated. Give me executives that just keep the trains running and let the thinking happen further down the hierarchy any day.

goobster  ·  2927 days ago  ·  link  ·  

True. But if Reagan actually had empathetic human beings pulling his strings, rather than sociopaths, he might have had a positive effect. He was a charismatic leader. A good figurehead. He just needed better policies.

Hillary is neither charismatic, nor a leader. And I have little faith that she'd choose anybody for her cabinet that had not held an executive position at Goldman Sachs.

galen  ·  2928 days ago  ·  link  ·  

But that requires a lower-down system that actually works.

user-inactivated  ·  2928 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The hierarchy the President is on top of is the executive branch. These guys. They all have all the problems that come with being a large organization, plus patronage positions and, in the case of regulators, having to hire from the industry they're regulating because that's where the knowledge is, but for the most part they all know what they're doing and do it as well as they can within the constraints of being large organizations. They do not benefit from more leadership; like all large organizations, they could do with far fewer leaders.