This article makes no falsifiable predictions: "real interest rates will climb from sub-zero levels back to their historic norm of 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent" but without a timetable this is unarguable. The global workforce will shrink but the trend of increasing productivity per worker is ignored, lest we consider whether it would offset the labor shortage. "The rich got richer" with no mention that the poor got richer, except for the good news hidden in "Wages in China are no longer cheap after rising 16 per cent on average for a decade." Offshoring is finished because "Panasonic is switching production of microwaves from China back to Japan." Google web cache of "Panasonic considers bringing production back to Japan" reveals a paywalled source: The yen is down thanks to "prime minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy through massive monetary easing." Also cited are "rising labour costs in China and other emerging markets," "the influx of tourists from China," "promoting ‘Made in Japan’ and ‘Made in Yamagata’ since people from other countries find value in these labels," But local manufacture to leverage a weak yen is a short-term strategy. Thus, "less than 10 per cent of the country’s manufacturers have plans to shift production to Japan from overseas for the current fiscal year."Kazunori Takami, president of the Osaka-based group, said in a presentation to investors this week that he is thinking about reshoring production of some household appliances such as cookers, washing machines and air conditioners, in response to a weaker yen."
Companies such as Toyota have also been reluctant to increase capacity in Japan due to bitter memories of the previous cycle of yen depreciation a decade ago. From the early to mid-2000s, car and electronics makers such as Sharp and Panasonic built expensive new factories in Japan that turned into massive financial burdens when the yen surged in the wake of the global financial crisis.
I think that's why several commenters below would like to see the study the article is based on--provocative suggestions, but where are the data? If you have a Morgan Stanley account, please do access it :)This article makes no falsifiable predictions: "real interest rates will climb from sub-zero levels back to their historic norm of 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent" but without a timetable this is unarguable.
None of my library accounts, libgen or already-reborn sci-hub have it. I'm pretty sure the link you're looking for is https://ny.matrix.ms.com/eqr/article/webapp/276a7a70-5bc3-11e5-b0d2-036c3d7f2ef1?ch=rpint , but it's not obvious to me how to get permission to read it. It's not even a paywall, it's a ifwecareaboutyouwealreadyknowyouwall. The only public-facing page I could find on Morgan Stanley's site makes it sound like something only available to their customers.
Looks that way. Fast Company has snark but it looks kind of like nobody really wants anyone to see the text.
Economically, I never understood the one-child policy. Sure, feeding a billion people is hard. But curbing your population because you don't want to feed them, in a labour-based economy, is like burning cash because you don't want to deal with finding a storage locker for it.China will face a double hit, thanks to the legacy effects of the one-child policy
China was trying to clear out the peasants. As you mechanize farming your labor needs plummet so those become idle, angry males with nothing better to do than foment revolution. When you're trying to pivot from agrarian to industrial economy, limiting idled farmers is a prudent move. China also grossly understated its population problems. They probably peaked between 1.3b and 1.5b people, not 0.9 and 1.1.