a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by wasoxygen
wasoxygen  ·  3087 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Why the world economy as we know it is about to be turned on its head

This article makes no falsifiable predictions: "real interest rates will climb from sub-zero levels back to their historic norm of 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent" but without a timetable this is unarguable.

The global workforce will shrink but the trend of increasing productivity per worker is ignored, lest we consider whether it would offset the labor shortage.

"The rich got richer" with no mention that the poor got richer, except for the good news hidden in "Wages in China are no longer cheap after rising 16 per cent on average for a decade."

Offshoring is finished because "Panasonic is switching production of microwaves from China back to Japan."

Google web cache of "Panasonic considers bringing production back to Japan" reveals a paywalled source:

    Kazunori Takami, president of the Osaka-based group, said in a presentation to investors this week that he is thinking about reshoring production of some household appliances such as cookers, washing machines and air conditioners, in response to a weaker yen."

The yen is down thanks to "prime minister Shinzo Abe’s bid to reflate the economy through massive monetary easing." Also cited are "rising labour costs in China and other emerging markets," "the influx of tourists from China," "promoting ‘Made in Japan’ and ‘Made in Yamagata’ since people from other countries find value in these labels,"

But local manufacture to leverage a weak yen is a short-term strategy.

    Companies such as Toyota have also been reluctant to increase capacity in Japan due to bitter memories of the previous cycle of yen depreciation a decade ago. From the early to mid-2000s, car and electronics makers such as Sharp and Panasonic built expensive new factories in Japan that turned into massive financial burdens when the yen surged in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Thus, "less than 10 per cent of the country’s manufacturers have plans to shift production to Japan from overseas for the current fiscal year."





b_b  ·  3087 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    This article makes no falsifiable predictions: "real interest rates will climb from sub-zero levels back to their historic norm of 2.75 per cent to 3 per cent" but without a timetable this is unarguable.

I think that's why several commenters below would like to see the study the article is based on--provocative suggestions, but where are the data? If you have a Morgan Stanley account, please do access it :)