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comment by wasoxygen
wasoxygen  ·  3193 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What will the price of Bitcoin be one year from today?

Rules?

Is the winner the guess with the smallest absolute difference from the index?

What is the deadline for entry?





mk  ·  3193 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Good call deadline is August 1st, noon EST. I'll add above.

wasoxygen  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

This is a tough one. I'm going to say $235.

You mention a lot of factors that could have zero or more influence on the price, up or down. I think the biggest upward pressure would come from increased adoption, but that appears glaringly absent to date. Participants in the Greek drama, citizens of Ukraine, and the teeming masses within the Great Firewall look like opportunities for growth that hasn't happened.

An author interviewed on EconTalk only noticed one early adopter.

    Quite frankly, I think for buying things online, for a consumer, particularly an American consumer, Bitcoin doesn't offer any great advantage. There's no real reason for an American consumer to use bitcoin instead of their credit card. It's often said that Bitcoin took off in the places that needed it least. The United States--financial system works pretty well. The currency is pretty stable relative to other countries. And so there isn't so much of a need for it here. I think in the course of my book, what I found was that the places where people did see some real value in this were places where there were less stable currencies, where there was less access to credit cards in the financial system. So the most interesting place for that is Argentina, which was really essentially the only place where I saw ordinary people using bitcoin for sort of everyday transactions--because it was better, cheaper, faster than the alternatives. And these people didn't understand the underlying technology, they didn't care about the politics. They just wanted something that was cheaper and faster.
mk  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think that's a fair assessment. However, I am not sure that adoption is absent. As far as a daily currency, I think that is true. However, it seems that bitcoin is being used in remmittance increasingly, and Nasdaq is now using it to track shares on their private exchange.

Transactions are increasing somehow.

As far as consumer apps go, I think its adoption will be less obvious. IMO Abra represents the kind of app that will increase consumer adoption. In short, it will be rails for fiat exchange.

wasoxygen  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The transactions chart tells a good story, but it doesn't bring the word "skyrocket" to mind. I think the chance of a US$1000 bitcoin will be much stronger in ten years.

mk  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes, the currency/asset only offers some improvements, along with some drawbacks. IMO it's the blockchain ledger that comprises the revolutionary technological advance. Ultimately, I think the value will derive from the fact that so much information depends upon those tokens. That said, there may eventually be an alternative to mining to secure it, but I have no idea what that could be.

b_b  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    ...these people didn't understand the underlying technology, they didn't care about the politics. They just wanted something that was cheaper and faster.

Unless and until this is the case everywhere, bitcoin will never be anything.

Who the hell understands how the internet works, or the politics of free information? Probably close to 0% of internet users. Ideals only go so far with people.

thenewgreen  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I have a good friend that's a venture capitalist that specializes in the crypto currency space. (Edit: you met him when he was running in the trail behind my house) Most of the businesses they back aren't US-based, in fact I don't think any of them are. The businesses they back are interested in facilitating remittance, often in the b2b space. This isn't "sexy" in that you can't buy a slice of pizza with BTC via these businesses but you can send money from a Mongolian oil company to a Saudi refinery via BTC by the millions at a fraction of the normal cost. It's these types of uses that will legitimize BTC. The pizza will come later. This isn't the route the "believers" envisioned, but it's happening. As such, I'm bullish.

wasoxygen  ·  3192 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Unless and until this is the case everywhere, bitcoin will never be anything

If by "everywhere" you mean "in many places," and by "anything" you mean "something approaching mainstream" I agree that these are necessary, though not sufficient, conditions for widespread use. Bitcoin is already cheaper and faster than other options available in much of the world.

I think regulation is an important barrier. Bitcoin businesses in the U.S. don't have clear rules to go by, and an entrepreneuer has to consider the risk of being made an example.

The internet is a scaled-up version of sending someone a postcard: clearly protected and untaxed communication. When the stuff moving is a kind of money, there are (for good reasons) far more legal hurdles.