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Let's have some fun. I'll send 0.1 BTC to the winner.
Guess the price of 1 BTC in USD at noon EST July 1, 2016. We will use the NYSE index for the price. The smallest absolute difference wins.
https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/NYXBT
The deadline for guessing is August 1st, noon EST.
State your reasoning if you like. I'll add my own non-competitive guess, but only after a number of others have been made.
Update: For my own non-competitive guess, I am going with $750.
I am basically extrapolating a price curve that you get if you ignore the last massive bubble, and factoring in the fact that the reward will drop from 25BTC to 12.5 BTC around the end of next July. Possible downward pressure could be due to a major exchange hack, or extended issues regarding the coming hardfork to increase the max blocksize from 1MB. Upward pressure could come from a new app, more adoption by institutions like Nasdaq, or the Winklevoss ETF being approved.
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600. I think there will be a paced buildout of the ecosystem fueled by the recent and continuing large VC injections. There will be a period of time that will have to pass waiting for the killer app (that may not be monerary in nature) to materialize that leans on the current ecosystem build outs. So a measured increase as the ecosystem gets more robust. Then long term a sharp increase in value when that application comes. This won't be next year though. Implicit in my assumption is that the next real value will recognized in the blockchain itself more than Bitcoin as an alternate currency.
drewmathers · 532 days ago · link ·
How do i sell my bitcoins to other people safely?
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blahberrypancakes · 1330 days ago · link ·
$300. Really it's just me hoping that the price steadies out because it isn't very economical to use if it keeps fluctuating.
Meh. $300. I'm not too optimistic about bitcoin right now. Also, the 25 -> 12.5 BTC thing doesn't affect the price as much as you'd think. Everyone knows when it'll happen, so the price adjusts accordingly based on what people think the real value is going to be well before it actually happens. If memory serves, if you look at 50 -> 25 you'll see the same thing, but I could be wrong.
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user-inactivated · 1330 days ago · link ·
This comment has been deleted.
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Nothing I can point a finger on. Just a gut feeling, really. The current mainstream financial markets seem unsustainable to me and I think change is necessary and inevitable. Will it result in another moon for bitcoin? Who knows, but it's always fun to speculate.
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am_Unition · 1330 days ago · link ·
Unless we're playing Price is Right style, I thought I'd corner the "several tens of thousands" region, despite how incredibly unlikely it is to climb that high. I never win contests anyway, and that's ok. :)
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This is a tough one. I'm going to say $235. You mention a lot of factors that could have zero or more influence on the price, up or down. I think the biggest upward pressure would come from increased adoption, but that appears glaringly absent to date. Participants in the Greek drama, citizens of Ukraine, and the teeming masses within the Great Firewall look like opportunities for growth that hasn't happened. An author interviewed on EconTalk only noticed one early adopter.Quite frankly, I think for buying things online, for a consumer, particularly an American consumer, Bitcoin doesn't offer any great advantage. There's no real reason for an American consumer to use bitcoin instead of their credit card. It's often said that Bitcoin took off in the places that needed it least. The United States--financial system works pretty well. The currency is pretty stable relative to other countries. And so there isn't so much of a need for it here. I think in the course of my book, what I found was that the places where people did see some real value in this were places where there were less stable currencies, where there was less access to credit cards in the financial system. So the most interesting place for that is Argentina, which was really essentially the only place where I saw ordinary people using bitcoin for sort of everyday transactions--because it was better, cheaper, faster than the alternatives. And these people didn't understand the underlying technology, they didn't care about the politics. They just wanted something that was cheaper and faster.
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I think that's a fair assessment. However, I am not sure that adoption is absent. As far as a daily currency, I think that is true. However, it seems that bitcoin is being used in remmittance increasingly, and Nasdaq is now using it to track shares on their private exchange. Transactions are increasing somehow. As far as consumer apps go, I think its adoption will be less obvious. IMO Abra represents the kind of app that will increase consumer adoption. In short, it will be rails for fiat exchange.
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Yes, the currency/asset only offers some improvements, along with some drawbacks. IMO it's the blockchain ledger that comprises the revolutionary technological advance. Ultimately, I think the value will derive from the fact that so much information depends upon those tokens. That said, there may eventually be an alternative to mining to secure it, but I have no idea what that could be.
Unless and until this is the case everywhere, bitcoin will never be anything. Who the hell understands how the internet works, or the politics of free information? Probably close to 0% of internet users. Ideals only go so far with people....these people didn't understand the underlying technology, they didn't care about the politics. They just wanted something that was cheaper and faster.
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thenewgreen · 1330 days ago · link ·
I have a good friend that's a venture capitalist that specializes in the crypto currency space. (Edit: you met him when he was running in the trail behind my house) Most of the businesses they back aren't US-based, in fact I don't think any of them are. The businesses they back are interested in facilitating remittance, often in the b2b space. This isn't "sexy" in that you can't buy a slice of pizza with BTC via these businesses but you can send money from a Mongolian oil company to a Saudi refinery via BTC by the millions at a fraction of the normal cost. It's these types of uses that will legitimize BTC. The pizza will come later. This isn't the route the "believers" envisioned, but it's happening. As such, I'm bullish.
If by "everywhere" you mean "in many places," and by "anything" you mean "something approaching mainstream" I agree that these are necessary, though not sufficient, conditions for widespread use. Bitcoin is already cheaper and faster than other options available in much of the world. I think regulation is an important barrier. Bitcoin businesses in the U.S. don't have clear rules to go by, and an entrepreneuer has to consider the risk of being made an example. The internet is a scaled-up version of sending someone a postcard: clearly protected and untaxed communication. When the stuff moving is a kind of money, there are (for good reasons) far more legal hurdles.Unless and until this is the case everywhere, bitcoin will never be anything