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ThurberMingus




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ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: November 15, 2017

I'm planning a short one night camping trip with my wife next Tuesday before Thanksgiving. She has only been camping a couple times so we're going to keep it simple. I'm a little worried about rain in the forecast though -- I'd prefer mud not to be the most memorable thing from her first camping trip with me.

I'm also running the Turkey Trot 5k Thanksgiving morning. My sister's reasons for signing my family up had more to do with the shirt than anything else, but it will be fun.

And it's been way too warm here in N. Texas -- flower bulbs are usually planted in the fall to winter to the dirt so they will sprout better in the spring, but we've had enough 75+ days that a couple decided to sprout now. Hopefully they won't completely die when it finally gets cold.

Storytime: I took a walk with my wife to get the feel of a neighborhood near our apartment. Walked a mile to a park, walked 6 blocks down one street in this neighborhood to the main road, and then back home.

First 2 blocks by the park: 1/3 or 1/2 acre beautifully manicured yards with nice houses -- their property taxes are more than our rent.

Next 2 blocks: 1/4 or .2 acre lots with moderate sized, well taken care of houses. The sidewalks were edged. The prices about double our budget.

Last 2 blocks got sketchy: peeling paint, torn shingles, broken garage doors, barred tiny windows, on small houses on small, unmown lots. Sidewalks were overgrown more than halfway to the middle and we had to step over a dead possum on the sidewalk. I can forgive fresh roadkill but I don't want to live in a neighborhood where a possum lays stinking on the sidewalk getting crusty for a week, and nobody bothers to grab a shovel and toss it in a dumpster.

(We live in DFW)

ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: What's wrong with big data?

    There's always an underlying model; the only question is whether or not the analysts know what that model is. If you don't understand why your results are what they are, your analysis has no predictive power!

It might have enough predictive power to be accepted. It might be predicting the wrong thing, following correlations it shouldn't, but if it looks good, people won't bother trying to understand.

    This is what gets me with people who believe that AI will lead to scientific results beyond the ability of humans to comprehend. What's the point? Humans have a hard enough time listening to other humans, even if their arguments are well-reasoned and easy to understand! How are we going to get society to blindly follow what machines say?

I agree it won't lead to new science, but I certainly believe people will follow any stupid thing The Numbers say as long as it's presented with a veneer of competence.

ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: If you had $5000....

Nothing wrong with a CD or savings account. Both yeild about 1.2% and can be FDIC insured.

Also it's totally reasonable to throw XX% in a CD and the rest in something with a chance of bigger gains - that might get you to a risk/reward you like.

ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: That one awesome priest

I've had a half written draft for your Pope Francis post for a week now, with some thoughts roughly similar to this:

    I honestly think that everybody who is making a fuss is so worried about what's right or wrong, moral or immoral, theologically sound or potentially blasphemous, that they lost sight of the idea that above all else, it's important to keep the church together.

I'll see if I can wrap my thoughts up

Flaunt it, obviously. Not everyday I get bragging rights like that.

Nobody's thrown out a stoopid low-ball guess yet, so mine is $3.50.

    Since November last year, CME Group and UK-based bitcoin futures exchange Crypto Facilities Ltd have calculated and published the BRR, which consolidates the trade flow of major bitcoin spot exchanges during a calculation window into the U.S. dollar price of one bitcoin as of 4:00 p.m. London time.

    Crypto-currency exchanges Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken currently contribute prices for calculating the BRR.

Bitcoin is a very small market compared to most. Is there a way to prevent someone from manipulating this rate by buying/selling at specific times? If it's possible, someone will try.

I would agree with those guidelines. I had hoped that after reading a bunch I would be able to narrow it down more than "less processed, and don't forget veggies." There is some surface level BS that's easy to rule out, but I don't have the background to critique the scientific parts, and I have come to distrust the authors to use the same statistical criteria on evidence they like as on evidence they don't.

I finished the rest of the existing A Song of Ice and Fire books. I'm not sure how I feel about them, the giant world of characters let's the story be told from all sorts of views, but it is also kind of unfocused.

I've had a small weird obsession and over the last year I've listened to almost every diet book my library has on Overdrive. I started because I was curious about the major ideas in the debate (carbs/fat, omnivore/vegetarian). My concussion is that whole vegetables are probably less suspect than everything else. No other conclusions can be drawn without starting over with biology, anthropology, nutrition, med-school, and then 30 years reading and evaluating existing research, by which time I will have developed my own blinding bias of course.

In Defense of Food probably resonated with me most.

    I wonder if crypto will increase as a consequence. I believe so, but who knows.

I think a bear market is more likely to make it crash too, or best case be even more spastically volatile.

I can't think of any sane reason that someone, scared of losing big-time in a bear market, would look at crypto and think "this will save me."

Insane reasons, yes. But that leads to volatility in my mind.

ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: October 18, 2017

Last week my wife and I planned all our meals in advance. And it worked great - good food, easier to prep ahead of time, which meant less time cooking, using one meals leftovers for the base of the next day's. This week we totally choked because we didn't plan it all out on Saturday.

Monday I'm joining a different project in a different department using different software doing different stuff... I had one guy tell me "they're a fun group," and another tell me "it's chaos, they have no idea what they're doing." The next 6 months will be interesting.

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