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ThurberMingus




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ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: July 19, 2017

The post-vacation half of summer always seems to drag on too long for me. Work is tedious, weather is hot, I get restless.

I'm trying to start the habit of exercising. I have access to a very basic gym (only dumbbells and elliptical) and I plan on running. Running is gonna suck because of the heat even in the early morning, but I can't stand treadmills or ellipticals, and I'm sick of how poor my cardio endurance is.

    it would be terrible design if they exercised one group and not the other

I second Odder somewhat on this... Every study of starvation shows that as calories are reduced, voluntary motion reduces too.

We know exercise is correlated with calories consumed in animals. This study does not control for both total calories and total energy expenditure, so it isn't correct to say the result is due to one and not the other.

Diet studies are super hard because it's impossible to change only one thing and the sheer number of variables is massive.

    Trump had received private assurances from then-FBI Director James B. Comey starting in January that he was not personally under investigation. Officials say that changed shortly after Comey’s firing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/special-counsel-is-investigating-trump-for-possible-obstruction-of-justice/2017/06/14/9ce02506-5131-11e7-b064-828ba60fbb98_story.html

I can't not laugh. The guy has the foresight of a headless chicken.

Granny Clampett already has enough socks

ThurberMingus  ·  link  ·  parent  ·  post: 1st Weekly Bakers' Thread

I'll try to add to future.

Question: so any of you have success with making bread dough by the feel of the dough instead of precise measurements? I can't seem to correlate dough texture to the resulting bread in my mind. My bread is all over the place quality-wise.

I've been working on a python module for numerical integrators. I used Matlab's built-in integrators for school, but I want something equivalent. Variable-step integrators are hard.

I also have another pet project to teach myself some machine-learning stuff by writing AIs for simple games, but I haven't made much progress on that.

I hardly ever finish my self-imposted coding projects, I work in them when I get the urge, and then let them sit for months when I don't.

I don't proofread for clarity enough, sorry for that.

My issue with the article boils down to his comparison of a spectrum of college results (including stupid decisions) with indexing returns (excluding stupid decisions).

- I agree that people are responsible for their own decisions, informed or not.

- Some people do stupid things. Many do thinks without proper background research.

- A knowledgeable rational index investor will know not to sell after the market drops steeply.

- Even with that knowledge, following through is hard. Doubt is a part of human nature, especially when news says "it really is different and worse this time."

I think a partially informed investor is more likely to get 2% than 7% if every mention of indexing ignores that the hard part is mental.

Explain to me then.

    it's not a methodology problem, it's a people are idiots problem

I want to make the point that ignoring the idiots is a methodology problem. If you ignore idiotic tendencies and unfounded 'gut feelings' in your methodology, your methodology can't be applied to people.

If someone reads "7% from indexing" enough places and jumps on board without the right mental prep, he won't be able to keep holding through a recession. Between fall '07 and Spring '09 the S&P dropped ~50% -- you don't just read some blog articles and maybe a book and have the mental groundwork in March '09 to say "I have half the retirement savings I did a year ago, but this is all part of my investment plan."

It takes serious willpower to index through a recession when it looks like the whole finance world is collapsing. Don't say anyone but an idiot could.

The article has more of a "tread carefully" message than anything policy related.

The NBER is the "official" scorekeeper of recession.

The list 33 since 1854 (1 per 5.2 yr) and 11 since 1945 (1 per 6.5).

I don't feel like breaking out any stat analysis, but at that frequency I'm not too surprised.

http://m.nber.org/#/cycles/cyclesmain.html

    anyone who uses vanguard can cheerfully invest in something that correlates at like 96 percent with the s&p. it is almost entirely free to do this.

If they forget they have an account they could cheerfully sit through a 50% loss.

For everyone else in the market, it really sucks. And anyone preaching index investing should at least acknowledge peoples' doubt and frustration about drawdowns, and that most don't actually follow through.

"Everyone says indexing is best, so I should try it" isn't a mentality that will get anyone through a recession.

Another flaw: equating S&P 500 returns with an individual's investment returns is a huge stretch. Few people invest entirely in an S&P fund. Those that do only invest in simple index and bond funds tend to do worse than the funds they invest in.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/11621555/1/average-investor-20-year-return-astoundingly-awful.html

My dad has an old truck in the twilight zone of pre-OBD but not antique (emissions exempt) yet. The equipment for emissions-testing those cars is expensive and fragile, and every year fewer have working test equipment.

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