That's an interesting take on the election results, and doesn't really reflect the failure of the Republicans to make any significant wins or headway on any of their issues. Abortion rights were protected. Red states flipped completely Blue (Michigan, in particular). Boebert's defeat is too close to call, but Katie Porter and John Fetterman both won, which is huge. All the news I see is that the "Red Wave" was nothing more than a puddle... they made a couple of gains, but even Tennessee finally outlawed slavery, and Alabama adjusted their constitution to remove the racist shit. The breakdowns are really interesting... the youngest voters understood the assignment and showed up, voted for women and progress, and ensured the next two years won't be a lame duck presidency.
Michigan is a mostly blue state that only once has voted GOP in a presidential race in the last 34 years (I think we all know which one), and that was an anomaly (Trump got fewer votes that year than Romney did in 2012). So all of the statewide offices remaining Dem was no surprise (especially considering , uh, "candidate quality" in the wise words of Mitch McConnell...e.g., the guy the GOP put up for AG is under investigation for election tampering from 2020...can't make this shit up). Whitmer won big for the same reason DeSantis did in FL, which is that things are good and getting better for almost everyone. She spends all her political capital on infrastructure improvements, and while people don't like sitting in traffic, they do like broken shit getting noticeably fixed. The real surprise here was that both houses of the legislature went democrat. That is a direct result of a citizen-led effort in 2020 to get a constitutional amendment that guarantees non-partisan redistricting for both Congress and the state houses. It worked, and surprise, surprise, for once the party with more votes got a majority. All in all it was really a best case scenario given the natural headwinds the incumbent president's party face.
This is a month old statement, but it’s been on my mind enough… I hope you give the following some credence from a FL native who wants to add some color to why DeSantis won. Things are getting better, sure. Though, I’d add that the Dems have not done well to campaign in Florida for a loooong time. Long enough that the time fight back now includes a couple decades-worth of gerrymandering in what is generally more a center-of-right (dare-I-say purple) state than many would like to believe when looking at Presidential/Gubernatorial election maps. Why do I say this? 1. Val Demings was a Dem running against Marco Rubio this year. Val Demings is a SUPERB candidate that has gotten more grassroots funds to kick off the election campaign that Rubio was sending pleas out for additional donations a couple months before November. The issue was Demings was the only stellar candidate the Dems put up for higher office in Florida. Nikki Fried was the only other Dem with “name recognition” (due to having her name on every gas station pump as head of FL Dept. of Ag.). Nikki? She was running against Charlie Crist (more on them next). If Dems put half the effort and resources as with Warnock, Rubio would have his butt outta Tallahassee, easily. But, the lack of resources is a symptom of the larger issue. I got 2 texts a day from Republicans, without exaggeration, leading up to the election since September. Democratic campaigns sent me 3… total. Mind you, I have only lived and registered in “blue” counties throughout my times in South, Central, and North Florida. I still get texts from districts I’m not registered in, for Republican campaigns. 2. Now, if we ignore the lack of Democratic presence outside the Gubernatorial race: Nikki Fried was an alright candidate with a horrid campaign management that would lash out at other democratic campaigns during primaries without provoking… and Nikki herself was taking donations from all the wrong PACs (looking at your FP&L). Her messaging was more progressive, but behind the scenes, Charlie Crist had the endorsements from Progressives that Nikki’s didn’t (Planned Parenthood for one). That being said, Nikki Fried vs Charlie Crist was a tough match up that people hope would prove better for the state. But when it really comes down to it, DeSantis leveraged quarantine to pull a publicity stunt to turn heads in the GOP. Ever since, he’s been acting as though he had a mandate in 2018 (for the record, it wasn’t a mandate). As such, Florida’s gotten redder with over a million people coming to a “Free” state with no income tax and low cost of living. So, the GOP machine has been pivoting to DeSantis from Trump as the 2024 heir apparent as J6 settled. Now, Crist won the Primary against Fried. Crist has also lost elections as a Republican, Independent, and Democrat - and he’s the best the Dem’s could be bothered to put up against Ron DeFuture? Hell, pitting Trump against DeSantis would have been an easy slam dunk to discourage MAGA heads from voting for DeSantis and his endorsements. Well A month late for quite possibly a throwaway statement, though I didn’t expect to have that tidbit in my brain that long. Hope the nuance answers some questions (or leads you and others to seek out answers) in 2024 when we’re all getting berated by DeSantis’s presidential campaign. ‘Cuz dollars to donuts, this time next year, that ship will have left dock already and all the punditz will keep reminding us how far it’s sailed until November 2024. TL;DR, there’s a bit more at play internally here in the Sunshine State. A lot of it having to do with a lack of support from the DNC in what has been a salvageable vote until seemingly very recently. Whitmer won big for the same reason DeSantis did in FL, which is that things are good and getting better for almost everyone.
From what I've seen, the House is predicted to flip republican and the Senate has some close races but best case will continue to be tied down by Manchen. Why do you expect the next two years not to be lame duck? (certainly it's not a Republican sweep so it could have been worse for sure)
Because the people doing the predictions need to be taken out back and beaten with a pillowcase full of nickels. Polling is broken and the chattering class has utterly lost touch. People point to the 2016 elections and say "look how much they learned" and try something vaguely different and eat just as much shit as before. Uncertainty has returned to political outcomes, but it's due to opacity of the electorate rather than chicanery of the process.
turns out that if you report percentage likelihood instead of predicting winners you can literally never be proven wrong because you give every result a chance of winning
I don't see how there's that much wiggle room left. The Senate is 48/48 now, with Alaska all but assured R, so the best possible case is 51/49. And through blatant hacky partisanship from the supreme courts that allow Republican gerrymandering but deny it for Democrats, there's essentially no hope of keeping the house. Most of the results are in already and there's been very little surprises so far. Just the same tedious dread seeing that 48% or so of the voting country seem to care more about inflation than their fellow man.
Bitch did you not watch George W Bush win by 300 votes because the Republicans convinced the Supreme Court that a bunch of Florida Jews voted for Pat Buchanan Fuckin' Trump launched 60 lawsuits over the idea of "finding 16,000 votes" or whateverthefuck. Recalibrate your idea of "wiggle room." It only works in a Town called Perfect.
Wasn't trying to start an argument, just confused, sorry. Totally agreed that the courts stole the election in 2000, that pollsters routinely get things terribly wrong, and that any predicted red wave or trump resurgence thankfully never happened. My point was mostly that I feel like Biden 's first term was already lame duck due to Manchen and now it will be slightly lamer with the house flipped too.
My apologies. I'm in a shitty mood. It's stupidly difficult being me sometimes. I think they're going to indict Trump, he's going to be convicted on something tiny, become ineligible to run for the presidency, and then they're going to legalize weed. It's what I'd do.
I agree I just think they optimal point of that is almost in power but not quite powerful enough to be accountable . That’s the maximum cash extraction points for them. If they were fully in power the base would expect laws to get passed and things to further their interests. In this stalemate they can ask for more money because they are so close, but then deliver nothing in return.
That reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the market, though. The money is made by spending some time legislating, developing some name recognition, and then pivot into lobbying. Donations as a candidate have to be begged for every goddamn day. Donations as a lobbyist are invoiced. It's substantially easier. At a fundamental level, the guys who don't pivot into lobbying are there because they like the feeling of power, and the feeling of power is substantially diluted by failure.
the year I started a cult If I needed and wanted the attention of my fellow man a whole helluva lot more I'd fuckin' rawk at that shit.