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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  23 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: US jobless claims were worse than expected amid slowdown in hiring

So yeah I pay $135 a year for The Daily Shot, which is more of a daily deluge of graphs. I printed 'em as a PDF once and a single day was 150-odd pages.

I've talked to them about sharing before and they're pretty firmly at "no" followed by "hell no" followed by "this is why we watermark fkkn' everything" because apparently once their obligation to the WSJ was over they figured they were going to control their media, dammit.

I mention this to apologize for why I must describe the 17-of-17 US topline graphs rather than showing them.

- layoff concerns spiking to levels three times higher than ever recorded, according to Arbor Data Science high frequency fed comments tracking

- concern in the Fed minutes that the Fed's narrative of "stock market up" is not the same thing as "economy up"

- Arbor, again, indicating that fed comments are more concerned about employment right now than they've ever been concerned with anything before ever

- Moody's "back to normal" index, showing we're plateaued at 70% and have been since July

- Oxford Economics with basically the same graph, only in more colors

- Job search and recruitment tracking the exact same shitty line

- Glassdoor hirings showing the exact same shitty line

- Consumer credit plummeting, with survey at plus 14 and actual at minus 7

- revolving and nonrevolving credit the lowest they've been in at least five years, except for March when everyone paid off their credit cards with their stimulus

- consumer credit absolutely plummeting

- average car loan size spiking...

- while total car loan rates plummet

- home sales slowing

- refis plummeting

- commercial rents crashing like it's Q1/08

...see we say "worse than expected" as if we live in the land of any kind of normal because if it's not normal what the fuck are we doing but lemme tell ya as a guy who sees the raw fucking data every morning? It's been the goddamn apocalypse since March and continues to be.

How's your recovery coming, guys? I wanted to say "kids" but the oldest millennials are turning 40 this year so... how fucking horrifying is this shit?





OftenBen  ·  23 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm not the only one having a hard time with their anger right now.

uhsguy  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yup. That's graph 1.

uhsguy  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

kleinbl00  ·  23 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If you're not confused you're not paying attention

    The decline in the unemployment rate is likely because of the number of people exhausting their unemployment insurance and exiting the labor force, which of course implies a much higher rate of unemployment (we think up to 3 percentage points) than the official data suggests.

Mine run out in two weeks. There's another add-on approved by who knows who but the eligibility requirements are different. I think I'm technically at 54 weeks unemployed right now.

veen  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So I've been doing a project where we are working in a small consortium of a few U.S. based companies. There's two regular companies, and two independent contracters we're working with. Thus I get a small slice into their work lives.

- One guy's been working from his basement because the kids are now homeschooled because his wife lost her job. He's making overtime to compensate.

- One of the more dumb-as-a-brick consultants has been under constant fear of losing his shitty job and broke down during a meeting. I don't see him finding a new job anytime soon.

- One of the independent contractors has been without any new gigs since March. She can't get a foot in the door anywhere. Had a meeting yesterday where she showed up in pajamas and very large bags under her eyes.

- The other independent contractor is basically a pensioner with a hobby so he's fine.

Overall...not good.

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Friends of ours are "project manager" and "homemaker" respectively. He seems unaware that he is being invited to fewer and fewer "project management" meetings as his clients and his contractors are on site together doing things while he's at home getting fatter and bushier. She tested positive for Coronavirus back in June but they haven't told her live-in mother for some reason.

There are 14 kids in my kid's 2nd grade class. They told everyone they were going back to campus a month early, primarily because they got the idea that they wanted some in-person stuff before flu season took everyone out for good 'cuz, see, if you have any symptoms of anything at all ever, you need two weeks and a clean COVID test before they let you back into 2nd grade. Initially eight sets of parents said "yeah go back to school kid" not because they figured it was safe but because they were f'n done having the kids at home. That came down to seven, then six in the space of a week as one kid popped symptoms and another kid's parents noped out.

Note that these are highly-educated rich white liberals for the most part. The local school district is only doing virtual school three times a week.

The United States will have to choose between "Morlocks & Eloi" and "Socialism."

OftenBen  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Please write a guide on how to not be a morlock.

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

OftenBen  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I cant believe this is five years old.

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Five years old, yet timeless.

uhsguy  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Any idea where I can get a coupon. I wish they had monthly subscriptions so I could see what’s there

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

They have sample reports, they're just not today's.

https://thedailyshot.com/the-daily-shot-sample-newsletter/#TheUnitedStates

uhsguy  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

And you get one of these a day?

kleinbl00  ·  22 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Weekdays yeah.