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comment by b_b
b_b  ·  4073 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bayesian Statistics and What Nate Silver Gets Wrong

There is evidence from neuroscience studies that we use this type of subjective Bayesian logic unconsciously every day, something similar to intuition. I think the author is using a very strict mathematical definition of Bayes' theorem whereas Silver is using it more colloquially. You are right that popular science can't be held to the same standard as peer reviewed science. I would argue that in science, it might be worthwhile to do a Fisher and a Bayes analysis, but unfortunately only Fisher (or some similar type test) is taken seriously.





user-inactivated  ·  4073 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    There is evidence from neuroscience studies that we use this type of subjective Bayesian logic unconsciously every day, something similar to intuition.
I do this all the time, and when I realized I was doing it subconsciously -- attaching probabilities to events, factoring in conditions and opportunity cost -- I started to do it actively. Discovering LessWrong helped.
    You are right that popular science can't be held to the same standard as peer reviewed science.
Malcolm Gladwell ran into the same problems.
b_b  ·  4072 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think the problem with popular science is that the authors don't always make it clear that they're simplifying, and the reader comes away with a false sense or feeling like an expert. It's OK to simplify, but it needs to be clear that some nuance is missing.

dublinben  ·  4071 days ago  ·  link  ·  

In my experience, these books always refer the reader to actual research if they're interested. It's no one's fault but the reader's if they develop an impression of expertise without even reading the original research papers.

user-inactivated  ·  4073 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I would argue that in science, it might be worthwhile to do a Fisher and a Bayes analysis, but unfortunately only Fisher (or some similar type test) is taken seriously.

I don't think this is the case anymore. Bayesian methods were fringe for a long time, but they've been mainstream for at least the last decade.

b_b  ·  4072 days ago  ·  link  ·  

In biology? I don't know. I read a lot of papers, and I can't tell you the last time I saw a Bayesian analysis.

user-inactivated  ·  4072 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I must have missed some context, I have no idea about biology. In statistics, Bayesian methods aren't controversial anymore.