There is evidence from neuroscience studies that we use this type of subjective Bayesian logic unconsciously every day, something similar to intuition.
I do this all the time, and when I realized I was doing it subconsciously -- attaching probabilities to events, factoring in conditions and opportunity cost -- I started to do it actively. Discovering LessWrong helped.
You are right that popular science can't be held to the same standard as peer reviewed science.
Malcolm Gladwell ran into the same problems.
I think the problem with popular science is that the authors don't always make it clear that they're simplifying, and the reader comes away with a false sense or feeling like an expert. It's OK to simplify, but it needs to be clear that some nuance is missing.