Two private companies have plans to colonize Mars this century: Mars-One and SpaceX. The colonization of Mars would be an important achievement for our species, and it is a necessary next step for our long-term safety. How realistic are these company’s plans? Will both be successful? What would this accomplishment mean for our future?
I think a lot of the desire to become a two planet species dwindled at the close of the cold war. Without the constant threat of nuclear annihilation it just didn't seem as important to people. I agree that we are going to need to diversify if we want human life to keep going, Planets and solar systems. I wonder what will happen when AI gets to the point of being self realized, it could expand to reaches that just aren't in the picture right now for humans.
I couldn't agree more with both of your main points (i.e., cold war, AI). To be honest, I've written before that we won't really be able to colonize other planets, and certainly won't be able to explore the rest of the galaxy unless we experience a technological singularity. Since that will likely happen between 2040-2070, I wouldn't be surprised if we really started to establish ourselves within the galaxy in the coming centuries.
There are so many reasons human colonisation won't happen- 1. Cost- obvious, unless a technology revolution occurs, soon! 2. Danger- no atmosphere, no van Allen belt, no protection from solar radiation or flares 3. Time factor- journey time, radiation exposure, bone mass loss, etc. 4. Global warming- in the near future will require most of civilisation's wealth to combat 5. Resource depletion- making hardware costs increase exponentially 6. Additional to 3. Civilisation is running out of time, can't agree on what to do 7. Psychological- The biggest problem of all; a small group isolated from all that Earth offers; beauty, freedom to wander, landscape, family, sea/air/colours/wildlife etc, etc. To live permanently in a completely hostile environment, confined to a greenhouse, utterly desolate and boring scenery, sensory deprivation, no chance of rescue or return. Recipe for depression, madness and suicide!
Re: Mars transformation, I have a question that I've never seen addressed. Mars had an atmosphere long ago, and seems to have lost most of it due to losing its magnetic field for what is apparently an unknown reason. It was then powerless to deflect the solar wind, which bit by bit knocked the Martian atmosphere into space. That said, how does one reintroduce an atmosphere, knowing that whatever gasses are produced are vulnerable to heavy ion blasting? Anyone ever come across an answer to this?
Of course it's gravity- how can magnetism act on gases? Other factors are needed because gravity is constant; rotational speed, greenhouse effect, solar intensity, etc
AFAIK, and as b_b suggests, the magnetic field can protect the atmosphere from the solar wind. According to Wikipedia: Not something I knew about.The solar wind affects the other incoming cosmic rays interacting with the atmosphere of planets. Moreover, planets with a weak or non-existent magnetosphere are subject to atmospheric stripping by the solar wind.
There are several challenges to terraforming Mars, that require technology that we do not currently possess (however this does not mean permanent settlements would be impossible). One of the biggest challenges is the one you posed. The technology necessary to inducing a planetary scale magnetic field does not yet exist, however it may not be the biggest problem for terraforming Mars. Several environmental scientists have pointed out that Earth's magnetic field has changed frequently, and even collapsed in the past, without any noticeable effect on life. Although I tend to agree with you that no magnetic field = no sustainable liveable atmosphere. In the future, I want to do research to investigate what type of technologies have been thought of to induce a magnetic field and whether any early theoretical conceptions of such technologies could be plausibly created within the next century. The second big problem to terraforming Mars is that it has a lower gravity than Earth. Many people believe that Mars would have a very difficult time retaining an atmosphere and would either require continual artificial renewal and/or a technology with the capability of creating artificial gravity. Another associated problem with low gravity is the fact that humans may not be able to function as well, or at all, in a low gravity environment long-term. In order to properly adapt to a low gravity environment we may need genetically engineer people. Fortunately, our ability to do that will probably exist before 2030.
That is a remarkable post. I couldn't agree more.