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comment by hootsbox
hootsbox  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Predictions

You wanted the map from hootsbox, so here it is:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=...

Winner: Romney Electoral Votes: Romney 290; Obama 248 General Vote: Romney 52%; Obama 47% Other 1% Rationale: States up for grabs: Romney wins: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire. Obama wins: North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Iowa





mk  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Alright, hootsbox!

I can see all of those as possibilities for Romney, except for Michigan. The auto bailout went over particularly well here. You really think he can overcome that?

I'd probably see Romney taking Pennsylvania before MI, definitely Iowa.

hootsbox  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes, he didn't say he wanted the auto industry to go under, just a different bankruptcy avenue. I agreed with the auto bailout (which differs from many from my camp), but I don't agree with what happened to the preferred bondholders who got "screwed" in favor of the UAW. They should have gotten their cut somehow. However, I did agree with the bankruptcy judge, "In the absence of a manufacturer, the rest is a mute point". Remember, Mitt's dad was President of American Motors prior to becoming governor of Michigan. So, Mitt is a car guy too! I think he clarified this issue in the debates if one can "throw their partisan bias" aside and listen.

cgod  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·  
ecib  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Eh, Romney said that Detroit should not get a federal injection of capital and should literally go bankrupt. He said that the Federal loan Obama approved would seal their fate. That clearly and unequivocally did not happen. A LOT of jobs were saved directly because of Obama on that one. Not just at the automakers, but at the hordes of auto suppliers in the rust belt. Michigan is a labor state that usually goes with the Dem in the election, and none of them have forgotten what Obama has done here.

Romney can attempt to go into minutiae all he wants, but he had a VERY different prescription than Obama for our auto industry, and he delineated it with a giant bold lettered headline that read 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt'.

I find it rather amusing that his conscious choice of bombast and bravado in choosing that headline is rightly biting him in the ass. You reap what you sow, and now he is battleing his own rhetoric. But as I said, it's really besides the point. They had very different policies, which was the whole point of Mitt's article, no matter how much he tries to spin it as the President adopting his policy now.

b_b  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I disagree with Mitt 100%, but to be fair, the Times editors chose the headline.

ecib  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I then I stand corrected. He had no say in that, huh?

At any rate, as I said, the whole confrontational headline isn't the issue as his solution was very different than the adminsitration's on substance.

If he wasn't allowed to overrule that headline or have any say in it, then he certainly isn't guilty of rhetorical bombast, and in this case, he is getting flack for words that were not approved by him. Although I think it is totally insane that papers run editorials by authors word for word, except the title itself. I had no idea that was common, -really stupid in fact. Guess every publication need their own version of link bait. This is, after all, a business, isn't it?

b_b  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I only know that because they had a story about the editorial in another newspaper recently and they pointed that out. But you're right that a rose by any other name still smells as, well, terrible in this case. Private capital was as good as dead at that time. Ford did themselves a service by hedging a year or two previous. Bush and Obama did what they had to do for GM and Chrysler. Anyway its not as if precedent doesn't exist. Bush bailed out the airlines after 9/11, and that was the right choice there, too

edit: sorry tons of typos on draft one of this post. Its really hard to type on a phone while flying through heavy turbulence. Thank god for autocorrect.

thenewgreen  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You should complain to the stewardess, "look, I don't mind a little turbulence, but its really fucking with my ability to comment on Hubski".

You flying Delta? Have a ginger cookie for me. LOVE those things.

b_b  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Ginger cookies are amazing. Go really well with jack and ginger, my preferred flying beverage. Flying through the edge of a hurricane, not that fun regardless of cocktail however.

thenewgreen  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That's what Xanax was invented for -they go particularly well with alcohol. Good luck pal.

b_b  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm home. Bad turbulence doesn't make me nervous, so I don't need Xanax, but it can be really annoying. Can't read. Spill drinks. Bump your head when trying to take a piss. Nothing about it is enjoyable.

thenewgreen  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Sorry you had a bad flight, I don't get "scared" either but Xanax can be fun ;)

Never really tried it much but I have a buddy that swears by it for flying purposes. Sleep, wake up and you're there.

b_b  ·  4616 days ago  ·  link  ·  

A lot of drugs are fun when mixed with alcohol. The warning label on the front of the bottle is usually the doctor daring you to try it.

mk  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I can see the perspective, but I doubt it will win Michigan for him.

The problem with Mitt's argument, IMHO, was that the private capital wasn't there at that moment of freefall. Due to the credit crunch, it would have been a very disorderly bankruptcy, and a lot more suppliers and dealers would have gone under as a result.

But in any case, I don't think Romney has much of a shot here in MI. He hasn't been running ads for some time.

thenewgreen  ·  4619 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Interesting. I'd be shocked if Romney won Michigan. I'd also be shocked if Obama won North Carolina. It will be an interesting evening, no doubt about it.