Doesn't the fact that it's those specific four (two banks, a home materials company, and a construction (among others) equipment manufacturer) suggest that people are getting ready to start building and buying again? Bear with me please as I think this through. I was going to say that this implies an expectation of increased home prices, but I think it's better to say that it implies an increased value in real estate, which isn't necessarily the same thing. The crash of 2008 showed pretty clearly that the market can have an interest in improperly pricing some things (or can do so out of stupidity). This in theory could be consistent with what you're saying--if interest rates are expected to rise and housing prices are expected to drop, this could mean investors expect more demand for real estate. Even if people can buy less house for the same amount of money, I'd be curious to know to what extent seeing lower "sticker" prices on real estate influences demand. But U.S. real estate is also used as a form of savings by rich Chinese. Perhaps, then, those four companies being the winners, again assuming it implies an impending increase in construction, could mean there's the expectation of even more (or at least continued) foreign investment in this regard. Of the two things I've suggested, I find this to be more likely. And it's a good thing. I want the Chinese, especially the Chinese ruling class, to have a vested interest in our continued stability, both economic and material.
For the record, we're discussing hypotheses for market behavior and I don't think either of us have the standing to do so. That said, REITs are getting pounded which more directly reflects the sentiment on housing. The construction boom is directly linked to Trump's infrastructure plan and, from the article,China devalued its currency to the lowest level since breaking its dollar peg in 2010 in an effort to reinvigorate an overindebted, overinvested, export-dependant economy. This creates its own problem, as China's bad loan issues are exacerbated by the capital outflows encouraged by the currency weakening. Moreover, this is exactly the type of currency manipulation Trump wants the U.S. Treasury to crack down against. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI) fell to test four-month lows on Friday, down more than 8 precent from its early October high.
I'm on the internet, that's all the standing I need! I don't see anything in those links that necessarily undercuts what I'm saying. Real estate holdings are used as refuge by wealthy Chinese, not the Chinese government. Their own country's economic woes are all the more reason to invest in something tangible and not subject to the same fluctuations. Plus, the first article you mention is mostly devoted to why you should invest in those very trusts. So doesn't exactly suggest the same level of pessimism. Trump's discussed infrastructure spending is awfully nebulous--as is typical, he has given few details, and there's a lot to suggest that it won't be implemented in the way he proposes. So I'm not convinced that such a theoretical plan is really the cause, or at least a major one.For the record, we're discussing hypotheses for market behavior and I don't think either of us have the standing to do so.