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comment by veen
veen  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Brexit looks likely.

What kind of standing do you expect to come out of it? The analyses that I've read point to the EU either playing hardball to scare off other countries from leaving, or focusing on pragmatic / consensus solutions like some sort of half-exit.





kleinbl00  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The more economic theory I read, the more I'm reminded that macroeconomic theory has few data points. I don't know. I don't think anybody knows. I think there are a lot of opinions and the ones that will turn out to be right will trumpet it from the rooftops and the ones that turn out to be wrong will dissemble.

I think it's noteworthy that much of economics right now is being driven by central bankers, and this vote puts them on notice that centralization is falling out of vogue. The Rationalists have been arguing that the disintegration of the EU has been a foregone conclusion since its inception... but they've been saying that since its inception.

I'm thankful to be an American today, that much is certain.

snoodog  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I guess I would bet on Hardball because the guys in Brussels want a stronger union not a weaker one. If they can force England to change their mind it might keep other nations from trying to same thing. If things get bad enough for Britain after the vote the EU may even end up with a more integrated Britain and not less.

veen  ·  2834 days ago  ·  link  ·  

My bet's also on a hardball strategy, at least for starters.

Admitting defeat and handing back more sovereignity than they had, however, seems like such an un-British thing to do though.