Hey, so i note in this article, the writer states: Can you either explain to me, or link me to something which would explain to me, why this would be bad for Dems? Just because I'm a Dem but think we vitally need an interest rate hike from the Fed (banking background). What am I missing?the weak report may have saved the Democrats from an even worse fate, that of a June interest rate increase by the Fed.
Conjecture: Many people believe that the economy in its current state is not unlike a game of Jenga. Those who follow feel that there aren't many tiles left to pull. The idea is that, much like a supersaturated fluid, we're one shock away from hellish crystallization: The idea is with a shit jobs report, the Fed won't risk even a 25 basis point rate hike because shit be precarious. Note that for bread'n'butter investors, a down economy means "Obama has failed" in some form or another. For people trying to make money, the bodies can't hit the floor soon enough - "recessions are when money returns to its rightful owners" as they say. So on the one hand you've got ma'n'pa Voter who want their IRA to keep making anemic returns of some form or another because then the media can convince them they're living in the longest bull market in history. On the other hand you've got Team BuyTheDip who are looking to pick up some bargains out of the carnage they've long been promised. Fans of carnage are generally Republicans.
My guess why he says it is that a rate hike will reveal how fragile and dependent on almost free money the economy really is. The pain of a hike in June would really be felt by election time. I don't know if that is true or what the author was considering. Any hike would be tiny and i don't know how widely it would hurt. I suspect that the market has high expectations of a rate hike in the short term and has mostly priced it in but anyone who is already operating on the margin is going to be in trouble.