What we need are screens, keyboards, and trackpads. For this reason, laptops will stick around for quite some time. My phone cannot replace my laptop. However, before long, keyboards and trackpads will be the surface in front of you. Then you will only need a screen. But, rather than carry around a screen, screens will be all about, and you won't be tethered to any one. Your PC will be on you wrist. You will be able to tap on that little screen, but when you need to get something done, you'll find a screen, and start tapping on the surface next to it. I already resent the space my phone takes up, and its limited utility.
I think you are right. I believe that we are heading for a three screen future. Mobile, Cinema and a third screen in which the market is going to be a bit split up between tablets and laptops depending on what you need. All these things will be integrated into one mobile PC unit for most users (just switching screens not your profile or software, probably cloud integrated). Why do people keep listing the Acer Aspire as a great laptop is beyond me. Acer stuff is not quality, it's got some bang for the buck but they also are on the poorer end of the reliability spectrum. Just helped my Mom pick out a new laptop. Got an Asus with all the goodies you might want for a light/moderate computer user for $400 bucks. It's amazing what $400 dollars can get you now a days, decent CPU, a lot of ram, HDMI, multiple USB ports, Bluetooth, integrated graphics are more than good enough for a non-gamers.
I'm part of a pilot program at my job testing out a new laptop that we're supposed to use "in the field," which means to make presentations at meetings. The problem is, nobody wants a "presentation" on a screen in the types of meetings I go on. There's usually only 2 -3 people involved and an old school paper deck works perfectly. I also have a company issued iPad, that could be extremely useful with digital contracts and to access internal data etc, but our legal department thinks the Ipad is too compromised to handle such things. -Not sure why. It's amazing how large organizations can be aloof regarding the right computing products for their employees. -We still cary blackberry's for crying out loud.
It just seems the most reasonable approach to me. As much as Apple works to make the PC an experience, there's just not enough value in box differentiation. The box is becoming a limit. Functionality is huge. Mobile is currently winning for two reasons: 1) most people do very little but consume with their PCs, and 2) a phone is smaller than a laptop. But, ideally, you want a screen to be big, and you want the hardware to be small. Currently the two are stuck together in a compromise. They need to be free. IMHO Microsoft could make a comeback if they started making a Windows watch interface. They missed this train, but could catch the next. Google is well-poised for this next battle. I think Apple will likely die making devices rather than a technological environment. They don't have the infrastructure not to play well with others, and I bet they will debate that point until it's too late.
At the risk of sounding like an Jobsian disciple, I'm not sure I agree. Sure, Apple may die, but it won't be because they are making devices. There's no question that the environment is king - and that's why I would argue that Apple has made such a comeback, and is so strong in the market now - it's not just about the box. They focus on how the OS and the hardware work together to create an environment. This may just be the kool-aid, but I don't think you can have the environment without the hardware and the software working together. AND I'm not trying to start an "apple is the best" or apple vs. windows, or apple vs. Linux, or apple vs. Android thing here... to each their own.I think Apple will likely die making devices rather than a technological environment.
I just see standardization moving to the forefront. To interact with ubiquitous technology, the winner is going to have the most open-feeling platform. That's why I see MS and Google having the edge. I don't want the coffee shop tables to be incompatible with the hardware on my wrist. Google and MS will care far less about that coffee shop table experience. Even on their own platform, from my experience, Apple's cloud is awful. My music collection feels like it has been randomly scrambled. Some songs are duplicated, and some songs are inaccessible from some devices.