He seems to have a strategy to overload the system by doing and announcing many things at once, some of them astoundingly ludicrous. It is certainly working thus far. Meaning, if you’re a supporter of his, you’re thrilled. If you’re not a supporter, you’re outraged, confused and likely terrified.
As an independent voter that genuinely cannot stand either major party, there are things I’m very worried about and things I’m bullish about. I’ll give my opinions on the major topics he’s tackled in his first two weeks. What a whirlwind it’s been.
Tariffs - Have not been concerned. Have always assumed they were a negotiating tool. Did they work as a negotiating tool? Yet to be seen. I like that he’s left them on the table to be reassessed after a month. Hold our border nations accountable. I can support this. For the record, I love Mexico and Canada and have no doubt that they love the US too. I’m sure they hate Trump. That’s okay with me. I get it. I would too.
The Gaza Riviera - Like, what the actual fuck? The only thing I find solace in here is that MAGA supporters are generally in one of two camps here. 1. Fuck this. You said America first. Stay out of this. 2. He must be saying this to either distract the media or as a negotiating tool. What I am not hearing online (at least not from anyone of influence) are Trump supporters saying that this is a great idea. Most are in a wait and see what he really means mode. Either way, I’m in the wtf camp. Very concerning. VERY.
Kennedy, Tulsi and other non-establishment appointments - I’m bullish. I supported Kennedy’s campaign for President. I welcome radical transparency and hope they can curtail the pervasive agency capture that is poisoning our institutions. Zero concerns re Kennedy. Im not as sold re the other appointments but have some optimism.
DOGE Could not be more bullish. I find it telling that the left seems focused on who is doing the auditing rather than what they are finding in the audits. You would be hard pressed to find a major media outlet that is reporting on findings at USAID but you’ll get page after page about, “BigBalls.” -not kidding. Two things can be true at the same time: usaid can and probably does do many great things but they can also be a tool to launder money or propagandize on behalf of the establishment. DOGE can be uncovering truths the taxpayers deserve to know AND they can be doing so irresponsibly. All can be true at once. I’d like to see more balanced reporting here but I won’t hold my breath.
DEI I wish Trump would stfu about DEI impacting the plane crashes etc. Trump is by far the worst part of the Trump administration. I support the transition away from DEI mandates as do some of the minorities that I know. A merit based approach is the most logical. We have anti discrimination laws that should remain in place. But blaming every accident or negative outcome on DEI is ridiculous. Stfu Trump!!
Trans Athlete Ban Not sure government action was needed here. As the father of two daughters, would I want biological males competing against them? No. Would I want them sharing locker rooms with them? No. I’m fine with this decision, I just don’t think it was as big of an issue as it has been made into. That said, it’s a wildly popular decision. Something like 79% of Americans agree with it. Seems like common sense to me. I do think a better leader would have done this with additional language reassuring the Transsexual community that their dignity and right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness remains. I’m also okay with not allowing children to have gender altering surgeries/medical interventions. For the same reason kids can’t get tattoos. If I was able to get a tattoo at 13, I’d have a giant mural of the Beatles on my back. Thank God I don’t. :) That said, when you turn 18, you do you. And I support whatever that, “you,” is.
Immigration I’m fine with increased border security. If you don’t come in through an official port of entry, you are illegally here and must be deported. Period. I’m not okay with changing the status of citizens that were born here. They’re US citizens. If that is to change; it CANNOT be done by executive order. I do see how, “anchor babies,” create bad incentives for illegal entry. People shouldn’t be coming into the country for the explicit reason of birthing a child. But if the government wants to change this; it needs to be done through the legislative process. I believe ICE needs to treat all illegal immigrants with respect and dignity, especially if their only crime is entering illegally. All of my grandparents are immigrants that came into the US through the proper channels. Both of my grandfathers were granted citizenship by enlisting in the Army. My grandfather from Mexico enlisted during active wartime and was a gunner in Korea. He is 94 years old now and has ZERO patience for illegal immigrants but for years he helped legal immigrants from Mexico to assimilate and find employment.
Regarding refugee resettlement, it’s been established that this was being gamed. Also, if you’re a refugee, come in through a legal port of entry. Simple.
Pardons This is fucked up. I can see pardoning people that were non violent. But a blanket pardon is not forgivable imo. Acts of violence cannot be normalized. Pardons should have occurred in a case by case basis. I also find Biden’s outgoing pardons incredibly fucked up. Big fail here from Trump.
pausing foreign aid fine with this. Should be reassessed by incoming state department.
allowing unvaccinated federal workers back - amen. Big win
AI I’m worried no government has enough concern here. I would like to see more dialog w China and less walls. Some people I respect are terrified re the future.
Crypto I mean, it’s better than the lefts obstructionist take but wtf re Trump coin? what an asshole. Our president issued a meme coin!? But what else should we have expected from him. Trump is gonna Trump. I remain bullish re crypto and hope Trump stays out of the way. But does he ever stay out of the way? Smfh.
Gulf of America what a tool.
Greenland Hate his rhetoric around this. But if the people of Greenland were in support of this and he could negotiate with Denmark in a constructive way, why not? But it would have to be a decision made by a sovereign Greenland. Without Denmark or the USA’s coercion. Greenland is a mess demographically. Huge alcoholism, depression etc. Not sure Denmark has been the best steward of Greenland. But that should be for Greenlanders to decide. Not Trump.
Panama Canal I hear from some in the know that the China influence is not as dire as is being sold to us. Did Carter fuck up by relinquishing control? Sure. But that’s our fault, not Panama’s. Not a fan of how Trump is approaching this.
All in all, a mixed bag from my perspective. It’s pretty stark to see how much activity there is juxtaposed with the Biden administration.
In short, fuck the DNC for brining us to this point. Suppressing a primary, using lawfare to keep opposing candidates from gaining traction. Using branches of government to keep opposing candidates from becoming viable, wielding their media influence to suppress candidates. Telling us Biden was, “sharp as a tack,”’and then rugging him and replacing him with ZERO input from the electorate. Just fuck the DNC. It’s their fault we are here. A robust democrat primary would have resulted in a far better outcome.
Sorry for the end rant.
Anyways, I fully expect to have my views challenged. Any day my mind is changed by a persuasive argument is a good day. Any replies must be considerate or you’ll or you’ll be blocked.
Onward!
The basic issue, TNG, is you've created a lengthy document to discuss the accountability of the least accountable people in politics. You have a bunch of headings earnestly discussing your perception of assorted actions or policies that were hatched with less deliberation by the instigator than the observers. You are also attempting to analyze a state of affairs as ephemeral as a cloud on the horizon. Finally, you are reducing numerous complex situations to a gut check, effectively deprecating the positions of policy experts to a man-on-the-street interview. Like this: The issue starts and ends with international sovereignty, which is a fancy way of saying "if you pick on every little country that doesn't do what you want you will quickly find yourself picking on every little country." You may have heard the phrase "exhorbitant privilege" bandied about by wonks and talking heads. It's an elliptical way of saying that the United States runs the world, unquestionably, with no serious challenges, and has done since 1945. You can use a carrot, you can use a stick, you can use a carrot and a stick and the carrot/stick ratio is foreign policy in a nutshell. It's important for purposes of domestic politics to act like there are serious challenges to this because everyone has an opinion about carrot sticks but the US runs the world and it's not close. The way we chose to run it in the '60s had a lot of stick in it, particularly in Latin America. America's "stick first" approach had led to our failures in the Vietnam War, the collapse of Cambodia, the collapse of Iran and secret wars in Laos. Carter, who ran on being Not Nixon, decided to turn the corner. Panama, as a reminder, had become an armed camp during the Vietnam War, with American troops firing into Panamanian crowds. Unwinding the Panama Canal treaty by 1999 matched Britain's unwinding of Hong Kong by 1997, thereby giving China a reason for continued rapprochement with the Western powers. The alternative could easily have been another Suez Crisis, which ultimately led to the Iron Curtain but it wasn't. There's an easy five doctoral theses in there but you've boiled it down to "Did Carter fuck up" as if the geopolitics of Panama are restricted to Panama. Ask the Iranians why they restarted their nuclear program and they'll tell you: there were three countries named as the "Axis of Evil" and the one furthest from nukes is now a vassal state. The State Department isn't a rec center, it's a vital arm of government dedicated to the distribution of carrots. The most important thing about Trump is he's convinced you that a gut check on Panama is a valid way to decide where to place your support. THIS IS THE WAY POPULISM WORKS. It's always - ALWAYS - the guys going "it's complicated" who are lined up and shot first. Any good demagogue knows that you don't get your way by debating, you get it through unilateral decisions... and that if there's no debate, there's no blowback for walking back your decisions. Let's talk tariffs - Trump managed to freak out every fund manager and retail investor by YOLOing into round numbers, only to walk everything back within six hours when Mexico and Canada promised to keep doing the exact same shit they'd been doing for 20 years. When Mexico says 'sure, we'll put ten thousand troops on the border, we've had fifteen there for years' we look like Mexico's bitch to anyone with a cursory understanding of border controls or foreign policy. This is the entire world going "what a terrible idea," Trump tweeting some dumb shit, every market going "what a terrible idea" and Trump going "I am a very stable genius." There's no policy to wargame here, no chin-stroking discussions, just gut-checks by demagogues and their flock. They're doing what they can get away with, that benefits them personally, with no greater vision beyond that. By regarding it any other way you're falling into the trap. The fact of the matter is, every expert on every subject you've chosen disagrees with the choices being made but the whole game is to make you think those experts are safe to ignore. They're not.I hear from some in the know that the China influence is not as dire as is being sold to us. Did Carter fuck up by relinquishing control? Sure. But that’s our fault, not Panama’s. Not a fan of how Trump is approaching this.
Have not been concerned. Have always assumed they were a negotiating tool. Did they work as a negotiating tool? Yet to be seen.
Hey KB. Been too long. I hope you and yours are well. First and foremost, I appreciate the tone of the reply, it's what I was hoping for. I also agree that statements like, "I hear from some in the know..." can be interpreted as, He's a very skilled salesman but I am not convinced that he is a very skilled tactician. My hope is that those around him, with their own convictions, can help win the day. Again, I want to say that I appreciate the tone of your reply and hope others that might join this thread (and any others on Hubski) will follow suit. I've not been spending much time here these past couple of years because the tone wasn't what it once was. I know others feel likewise. Not aiming that at you, but just saying. It's nice to be here. I miss Hubski. I think Hubski is a great place for times like these. Onward!you've created a lengthy document to discuss the accountability of the least accountable people in politics.
My intention was to give my opinion on the topics that have been brought up in the first two weeks. My hope was that it would get a discussion going wherein my opinions, some are pretty nascent, could be challenged, increasing my perspective. I'm earnest in this regard. as ephemeral as a cloud on the horizon
Well said. Don't disagree with regard to many, but not all, of these topics.deprecating the positions of policy experts to a man-on-the-street interview
but this has become par for the course when it comes to actual journalism. Am I held to a higher standard than nearly all of mainstream media? Perhaps I should be. You'll be hard pressed to find any article on CNN/MSN/NPR that doesn't say something akin to, "people close to the administration say," or, "an expert with knowledge of the situation says..." The issue starts and ends with international sovereignty, which is a fancy way of saying "if you pick on every little country that doesn't do what you want you will quickly find yourself picking on every little country."
Couldn't agree more. That was my clumsy point. We gave it to Panama. A sovereign nation. Case closed. I was adding that the administration is overemphasizing the threat from China in this regard. Did Carter fuck up
was meant to show that it is immaterial. What is done is done. As said, I think this is an L for Trump. Not a fan. Trump managed to freak out every fund manager and retail investor by YOLOing into round numbers, only to walk everything back within six hours
He tanked markets and then stacked. It's unreal. My point was that I never thought the 25% Tariffs were ever going to be realized. And while I hate that my portfolio tanked 20% (It's already clawing back) and while both Canada and Mexico had analogous deals in place already with the US, we now have their feet firmly to a fire. I do believe that we will see a more secure border and less fentanyl in the US as a result. If so, I can applaud this. Yet to be seen. They're doing what they can get away with, that benefits them personally, with no greater vision beyond that.
I don't think so. I don't think anyone is that black and white. Do I think Trump is an opportunist? I mean... Trump Coin? Trump's gonna Trump. He likes to sell. But do I also think he wants to forward American interests for the sake of Americans? I do. Do I think he's playing 3D chess while we are all playing checkers? No. No, I don't.
The problem, Steve, is you feel like you should have an opinion other than "what the fuck is this bullshit" which means you've already lost. Ostensibly, Trump ran on (1) deport everyone (2) Tariffs will save us (3) grocery prices are coming down on Day 1 (4) Palestine and Ukraine will be solved immediately. There were no clear plans for any of those points but... Let me digress. I subscribe to FT Alphaville because it's free and it's extreme financial snark. Fortunately for everyone I can't forward or link anything because if you aren't in the system you're out in the cold but every now and then? So this is my new favorite term for Trump-era unforced errors and stupidity, courtesy JP Morgan Chase: "Left Tail Risk." I had a roommate down in LA who I came home to find despondent once. When I asked him why, he said "I have to burn my shoes now." This wasn't him figuring out how he felt about New Balance's ad policies or balancing his comfort with any social inconvenience he might suffer for his Nazi footwear, this was a man who had gotten so wrapped up in a miasma of self-reinforcing social media bullshit that he was looking for lighter fluid before contemplating what he'd wear to work the next day. Counterpoint: We had a patient who was given megadoses of Ivermectin for her COVID by another naturopathic doctor we know, and she wanted to know if it was going to be safe for her baby. Now - ivermectin has been a frontline anti-parasitic since the early '70s. It's a well-profiled drug. You could look up dozens of studies on Ivermectin going back decades, describing its safety and efficacy across many diseases and cohorts, and not find a single one related to pregnancy. Which, since Ivermectin is largely used in the developing world and since pregnancy is not unknown there, says one thing really clearly: Merck has no need to test Ivermectin in pregnancy because they know beyond a reasonable doubt they won't like the answers and "not studied" kicks the shit out of massive nasty contraindication warnings all over their meds. These studies weren't hard to find. It took us ten minutes to go "uhhh, yeah, this could very well fuck up your baby" (baby miscarried). But since the popular media was full of Fauci trying to do his job and Trump telling us to inject bleach, the lunatic fringe elevated Ivermectin to the point where our friends were prescribing it through sheer dumb flooding of the zone. Back to Trump. Of his thumbnail sketch presidential platform, (1) is a bunch of search engine chicanery (2) has been an absolute shitshow (3) hasn't been mentioned since election day (4) is a resort maybe, you know where he got the idea.. The senile, bloviating dipshit is zero for four but instead of looking at that, you're out here trying to have an educated opinion about annexing Panama. veen posted this about four hours before you posted the above: You shouldn't have to have an opinion about annexing Greenland. Nobody should. It's a fucking stupid idea. The fact that it's never come up before demonstrates how stupid it is - there's a world full of experts that make a lot of money to think about feasibility and advantage and "make Greenland a territory" has never come up. Make Puerto Rico a state? Ohhh yeah. That one has been coming up for decades. Trump would never go for that, though because here's the thought process: - see a map - see Russia & Canada - see how much bigger they are than the United States - see how turning Greenland into the United States makes it more bigly The dude hasn't even gotten to Mercator Projection Thinking but here we are jawboning about canal tariffs because Trump walks past Teddy Roosevelt's portrait. And you can think that no one is that black and white, but I know about two dozen people who worked with Trump - the only reason I never worked The Apprentice is I'm an elitist who doesn't like leaving my air conditioned submarine and they couldn't pay me enough but I know both sound supervisors on that show, half the mixers and two thirds of the camera department and that's exactly who he is. We once (before 2016) had a discussion in the booth about who had less object permanence, Paris Hilton or Donald Trump and while Paris won, it was a real debate. When John Bolton calls you a lightweight? You're a lightweight. Someone once described Trump as a poor person's idea of a rich person. He is also now a stupid person's idea of a smart person. None of which would matter, except that your takeaway is I get it? But the DNC had to deal with half the country insisting a vote for Harris was a vote for Intifada. Had to skirmish about transgender prison reassignment rather than the best pandemic recovery in the world by far. "They're eating the dogs" came up in a mutherfucking presidential debate and this is somehow the DNC's fault? THAT is "left tail risk." It's a refusal to grapple with real issues because you're wholly consumed by fake ones.
In short, fuck the DNC for brining us to this point.
My theory of the problem with America is that we are paying so much attention to politics that it’s fried our brains. I see it on both sides, people are absolutely hyperventilating about what Trump is doing or not doing, what the democrats are or are not doing about whatever Trump is or is not doing. Liberal women taking to TikTok to tell other liberal women to buy “cute winter boots” (read: firearms to hold threateningly near ICE agents). Honestly, I think most of this will eventually blow over and mean nothing. We aren’t going to take Greenland or Panama. I doubt we’ll do anything substantial in Gaza. The purge of government employees won’t change anything substantially, and might make things more efficient, maybe (I don’t think it will, it will mostly make a giant mess). I don’t think this is anything the liberal side fears. Trump isn’t ending democracy, and he likes Jews too much to be Hitler. It’s actually somewhat amusing that people believe in the End of Our Democracy— by a guy who has never bothered to pay attention in briefings. As far as the Covid response, I don’t see how Biden did all that well. At best, his success was being elected after the virus had burned through the population. By the time Biden was in position to do anything in January of 2021, the virus had been around for five years, most sane people were vaccinated, and often had a couple of boosters, and the virus had weakened enough to be a glorified flu bug.
By "Pandemic recovery" I mean "economic recovery from the pandemic" which, yes, was far more Congress than Biden. Nonetheless, presidential elections are referendums on the past four years and the past four years were much better for Americans than pretty much any other nation. The problem with America is the Republicans have grown comfortable with their permanent minority status and have consolidated their platform around demagoguery and the lunatic fringe. When one party is 100% wedge issues 100% of the time, you're effectively at one-party government vs the chaos agents.
Even that, from my understanding comes from the same place. Once you stop forcing the economy to slow down by lockdowns and vaccination mandates, just saying “you can go back to working and buying stuff in stores now” is going to end tge artificially created recession. Wages didn’t go up because the government did something, it was an enticement to get people back to working in restaurants and warehouses and retail stores because people who were doing those jobs found other work.
"From my understanding" doing a lot of work there. The United States pumped more cash into the economy than any other, which led to more employment, more investment and a faster recovery. It also led to greater initial inflation, but that inflation also cooled faster than any other country. Economic statistics are notoriously obscure and net price changes are a function of inflation over time, rather than a rate of inflation, so there's hay to be made about the truly uneven nature of the pandemic recovery. But you can't wave your hands and say "from my understanding" and pretend that global pandemic recovery had nothing to do with economic policy.
No. Full stop. The DNC didn't have to deal with the any part of the country thinking anything about Harris. They brought that upon themselves. They knew Biden was mental mashed potatoes. They could have held a robust primary. They apparently ran polling to see who would win in an open primary. Guess who it wasn't -- Biden. Maybe Kennedy or Dean Phillips would have won or Klobuchar or Buttigieg, but it would have been by the will of the people. Instead they rugged Biden and installed Harris with zero input from any of us. Huge mistake. It wasn't Maga's fault that Harris lost. WTF? How dare they say mean things about the opposition candidate? The DNC couldn't have predicted that? Harris did almost zero long form unscripted interviews. This after her predecessor had the least amount of press conferences of any president since Reagan (a bad look since Reagan also had dementia). She said she wouldn't have changed a thing from the Biden admin... I mean, she was a really shitty Candidate. All the DNC needed was something, "new." She could have been that but chose not to be. Epic fail. The fact that "they're eating the dogs," came up and Harris STILL lost is a testament to how bad of a campaign she ran. It's not that she couldn't have won. She chose not to. All she had to do was to distance herself from Biden. To show she was young, energetic and willing to talk the issues in depth and go on long form interviews, one after another. But no. I'm telling you, it was an epic fail. So, yeah... Fuck the DNC.The problem, Steve, is you feel like you should have an opinion other than "what the fuck is this bullshit" which means you've already lost.
Well Seth, I think if you're stuck in, "what is this bullshit!" You've already lost. having an opinion on the issues is something I can't turn off. That said, I don't disagree with some of your characterizations of Trump. That he is a poor persons idea of a rich person is particularly funny. I don't know the lighting guys for the Apprentice, but I do know one of his top picks to head of the FDA in 2016. He interviewed several times with Trump. He went in to the meetings with the same characterization of Trump that you describe but left the process with a very different opinion. According to him, Trump asked insightful questions and in subsequent interviews referenced previous answers he had given in great detail. Had knowledge of the role the FDA would play in his administration etc. Jim was telling us all this story at a party (while we were in YC) to a bunch of people that were hardcore liberals. He got flummoxed looks. To that he said, "I know, I was surprised too." I think Trump is not as one dimensional as it is convenient to think he is. I also don't think he's a, "very stable genius." I get it? But the DNC had to deal with half the country insisting a vote for Harris was a vote for Intifada
Dude im sick of your shit on RFK JR. he’s Going after SSRIs already which will impact no fewer than 5 people close to me if they cannot easily get access to them. Let me know where the health and access to healthcare are at for your and people close to you in the next four years and ill do the same. We’ll see just what an advantaged, privileged bubble you’re in.
What shit on RFK Jr. did I post? How is he, “going after SSRI’s?” It’s my understanding that in the past he has suggested they’re over-prescribed and harder to get off of than is suggested. I think something like 10% or more of adults are prescribed them. That’s a fucking crazy number. I’ll watch his actions and see if he does anything to deny people access to SSRI’s, but I’d be surprised if he did. Lots of reporting about what he might do or could do. I’ll wait to see what he does do and I’ll certainly hold him to account if the things he does do run afoul to my values. Easy enough. He a public servant, not a god. Im in a good place where I can genuinely judge our public servants on their actions. Sorry that you’re sick of, “my shit.” You can always block me. No hard feelings here.
yep you’re blocked im going to go out on a bang though when your wife disagrees with you do you tell her “im sorry You feel that way” like what you’ve said to me, kb, and user_inactivated over the past week or so?
I’m not sure there were any candidates that could win. Trump has enough charisma to pull off a lot, and democrats don’t understand that most of the country operates on a junior high level of understanding of most issues. They try to bring in the nuances of some issue, and all the Homer Simpson’s watching on TV get bored and confused. Trump gets them and knows “illegals are criminals and eat cats (isn’t that ALF?)” lands while “migrants cross the border illegally to make a better life for their family and our legal immigration system is bullshit unless you’re on an H1B,” doesn’t. They understand “food costs more, and Biden hasn’t fixed it,” but not “bird flu because of poor farming practices and shit luck, and the war in Ukraine is raising grain prices”.
I've read this a few times and tried to form an intelligent response... and all I can come up with is... grace and courtesy - I wish he had some. For example: Yah.. on the contrary, he let trans folks know on Day 1 that his government (their new government) will no longer recognize them. Sure - I can understand the biological sports argument - but there's a way to make something happen with some level of compassion and understanding... not like this. There's a way to bring people to the table and get things done that doesn't involve insult, slander, hate, and threats of violence. I'm not suggesting that everyone in a conversation needs to be comfortable... but leading with a jab isn't the best way to start a conversation or negotiation. And that's what this is... it's one big corporate negotiation to the Orangutan-in-Chief. Jab/insult/demean/hate first - think second. Even if I agreed 100% with what he and his crew are doing (which I don't), I vehemently disagree with the way they're doing it. One may say "but the ends justify the means" and I would argue that they don't always, and the country left in the wake of his presidency will be the real testament.I do think a better leader would have done this with additional language reassuring the Transsexual community that their dignity and right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness remains
I couldn’t agree more regarding the grace and courtesy. The transgender athlete ban is a good example. 80% of the country agrees with it but I bet the majority would also agree that our transgender community deserves to feel safe and seen. Nuance is not the forte of Trump. I think two things can be true at the same time. This administration could do positive things and they can also be unsympathetic with regard to how their actions impact marginalized communities. Again, I think Trump is the worst aspect of the Trump administration. There are some strong people surrounding him. A very diverse coalition. Let’s see where this leads.