Here is my prediction: The FCC deregulated the Internet today. The first changes you will see, in early 2018, will be offers from your internet provider (Comcast will probably be first), offering the “Gamer Package” or “Streaming Package”. These will be offers to specific types of internet users, offering higher internet speeds to make their experience better. “Always getting pwned at CounterStrike? Upgrade to our Gamer Package ($49.95/mo) for better gaming speed!” for example. To ensure you are excited to hear this new sales pitch, the following will happen: False Scarcity Over the holidays, there will be reports of “network saturation”, and mysterious slowdowns when streaming Netflix and YouTube content that will be attributed to “unusually high levels of network activity during the holiday week”. Gamers will rail at Microsoft because their servers are “too slow”, and the games people got for Xmas are not working well in online play mode. Geeks Getting Ignored (again) Interestingly, geeky news outlets like ArsTechnica will report that their detailed network analyses will show that the slowdowns occurred only on traffic from certain services, through specific ISPs. These will, not surprisingly, be services like Netflix, streaming to Comcast customers in large metropolitan areas. Astroturfing, Alt-Facts A suspicious number of comments on these articles will be talking about how ISPs need to create dedicated pipes for these games, so the traffic doesn’t get slowed down. These commenters will also mention that ISPs can’t afford the constant upgrades necessary to stay up to date with the latest streaming needs... False Analyses Comcast will then release a statement in January that their detailed network analysis showed a much larger than expected number of users, and promise that they are making upgrades to their equipment and services so that “customers can get the streaming experience they want.” Solution Offered By February or March, Comcast will roll out their new “high-speed” plans “in response to customer demand”. And everyone that got a new xbox for Christmas will have to upgrade their internet service if they want to be competitive in their favorite online games, or watch Netflix/YouTube/Hulu without buffering, etc. Monopolistic Opportunism Once Comcast rolls out their pricing plan, the other big names will roll out their “fast lane” plans at identical price points by mid-year. And in six months the internet will have gone from the open and accessible tool we have known for 20 years, to a set of “walled gardens” you must pay to enter, and any web site or app you use that is not owned by a Fortune 500 company, will be painfully slow to use. So you will move away from those apps, and toward the mass-market tools that the ISP monopolies have decided you will use, because they are the only apps that are a useable speed. Legal Footnotes Yeah, sure, there will be lawsuits trying to block the deregulation of the internet by the FCC, and prevent this future. The Ninth Circuit Court will rule in favor of Net Neutrality, and then be overturned by another court in another jurisdiction (cough, cough, Texas, cough, cough) that will allow business to continue while the legality of the decision to deregulate is being litigated (see: the Muslim ban), and then SCOTUS will rush through a decision - with Gorsuch as the tie-breaker - that will uphold the regulation and make any effort to apply any sort of regulation on the internet as “anti-competitive and illegal.”
Briefly, on the legal footnotes: these cases are virtually always filed in the DC Circuit. It's pretty much the go-to when it comes to regulatory stuff, and it's unlikely anyone would file elsewhere given that all the major caselaw on NN and regulatory agencies generally is from DC. Also, a lawsuit isn't as long of a longshot as you might think.
When the government is trying to defend itself from patently illegal and nefarious activity, they file in the 12th. When the public wants a friendly circuit that wants to curtail government overstepping their bounds, they file in the 9th. (See: the Muslim ban.) At least that is how I understand it. So I see it happening like this: The cases currently being filed in the 9th will be found in favor of the public and against the FCC. The FCC will file in the 12th for a summary stay against any injunctions ordered by the 9th, and will win. A Heritage Foundation/Koch-backed front organization will file their case in the 12th, attesting that the FCC ruling is reasonable and warranted. The 12th will rule in favor. There will be an uproar and more attempts by the 9th to overturn or block the key decisions in the 12th's ruling. The inter-court rivalry will eventually be rushed in front of the SCOTUS, who will rule in favor of the 12th findings, with Gorsuch being the tie-breaker. They A/B tested this exact process with the Muslim Ban, refined the process to focused point, and put all the steps in order to push through a BUNCH of pieces of law they want their friendly SCOTUS to rule on ASAP. The 9th Circuit is the dupe in this whole thing. The 12th knows that the 9th has a very pro-Constitution, liberal bias, and will jump like the ACLU at any perceived affront to their liberal, progressive values. So they line up specifically-tailored cases to poke the 9th Circuit bear, make the bear dance, then get the 12th to slap the bear for dancing, and then get SCOTUS to rule in their favor because that dancing bear over there is clearly ridiculous. They've war-gamed this out to the Nth degree...
Except what you're describing isn't how the court system works. No. One federal circuit cannot summarily override another.The FCC will file in the 12th for a summary stay against any injunctions ordered by the 9th, and will win.
Yep. You are right. I mis-remembered what happened with the Muslim ban: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/supreme-court-justice-kennedy-blocks-part-of-9th-circuit-ruling-on-travel-ban/
Reminds me of a joke from elementary school Kid B: My daddy is so rich he owns a Ferrari AND a jet ski! Kid C: My daddy is so rich he owns a mansion, a Ferrari and a jet ski! Kid D: My daddy is so rich he owns a judge!Also, a lawsuit isn't as long of a longshot as you might think.
Kid A: My daddy is so rich he owns a jet ski!
Thanks a lot for the input. I'd like to see where Google, Amazon, Netflix will fall into place here. Being the only actors powerful enough to make a difference in the legislation, a company could try to profit from winning over competitors' consumers by openly lobbying for neutrality. Or something, I don't know.
Well... Google, Amazon, and Netflix (and Facebook) are the golden geese for the ISPs. These are the sites that drive 90% of internet traffic. So if I am a smart ISP, I leave those companies alone. (Mostly.) Play nice with them. Give them a good price to make sure their data always gets the fast pipes, because these are the sites that have the "suction" to force consumers to pony up for faster speeds to their homes. See, I can charge Google a million dollars, or I can charge a million people $49.95 so they can reach Google. Going with Option 2 keeps Google friendly with me, and lets me gouge ALL of their customers for fee, with the implicit approval of Google themselves.