On NPR this morning they basically called McCarthy a shoe-in, despite his challengers. They essentially said they thought that the Tea Baggers were trying to extract concessions more so than actually get their candidate into office. The one tea baggy type from FL apparently has the support of 40 members. A thought occurred to me at that time. The Speaker is the leader of the House, not the leader of the Party (like a majority/minority leader is). As such, the whole house votes on that person. It's usually a formality, because there usually is broad agreement from the majority party on who that person should be, so that it's of no consequence if the minority party doesn't want them in office. But here, what if Pelosi decided to support the 'Bagger? He could win, and win handily. What if McCarthy's office called her and she didn't answer the phone? Nothing would blow up the government more than having one of those people as the Speaker (third in line for the Presidency, I might add). What possible incentive has the GOP given democrats over Boehner's tenure to not want complete chaos? It's not like they can run the House any worse, and at least their destructive powers would be on full display. I would have shrugged off my little fantasy, but then this news comes out of nowhere. I'm having a conspiracy moment right now. Whether or not this fantasy is even 1% true, the democrats suddenly can wield a lot of power over these negotiations, and will continue to do so, so long as at least 30 or so republicans continue to dissent. If I were a democrat in office, I would continue to shrug my shoulders if any GOP member asked for my support.
I think that's short-sighted. Tom Foley. Newt Gingrich. Dennis Hastert. Nancy Pelosi. They got shit done - it was ugly and unpleasant to watch, but they led. As time went on they led less and less; I think Gingrich taking down Foley was the start of ugly-ass divisive politics and it's coming to a head. but it isn't so much failure by design as sowing dragon's teeth. The institution doesn't have to be completely dysfunctional, it just is these days because of how we conduct elections.
Is there any chance this could result in the Republican Party splitting in two?