Two weeks ago I had a chance to interview paleoecologist Dr. Robert Dull about an ancient supervolcanic eruption he discovered in mesoamerica. Here is the final article for Scientific American. I have also written a related piece for The Advanced Apes website titled: Our Past (and Future) With Supervolcanoes.
PS: info or links on the "Maya hiatus"? I found this: Do we know anything else really?This boundary is associated with the "Maya Hiatus", which lasted between 530 and 630 AD. The Maya Hiatus was marked by a sharp decline in monument carving, abandonment in some areas and social upheaval. This event may have been drought-related. During the next 200 years from 600 to 800 AD, the late Classic Maya flourished and reached their cultural and artistic apex.
Honestly, there is very little known about the Maya hiatus. Most of what we know is indirect like political alliances switching and centers of power changing. Dr. Dull told me that one of the biggest areas of research in the future should be focused on better understanding this hiatus. It should be noted that no one really knew about this eruption before his ecological surveys over the past few years. Before that the extreme weather events of 536-537 were a big historical mystery. While I was doing my personal research for the interview my biggest difficulty was wrapping my mind around the fact that all the Maya civilization did not collapse after the eruption. I can't believe it. I can't wait to know more about how they averted collapse.
Nice interview Cadell, I enjoyed this read. Can you describe what the repercussions would be for the areas outside of the "blast" area but still effected by the ecological side effects? How long would the ash block out the sun? How much of the ash would coat the vegetation or even pollute drinking water? Are these the concerns? Obviously, magma would be the concern of those near the volcano but what is the impact for those hundreds of miles away? If Yellowstone erupted out west, what would be the ecological impact to the east coast?
Here is an image of the average Yellowstone VEI-8 ash layer of 15-20 cm. The rest of North America would be covered in a range of volcanic ash from 1cm-10cm. The magma volume would likely approach between 300-400 cubic kilometers. Depends on where you live. Dr. Dull told me that as long as the VEI-8 didn't occur at the extreme north or south of the planet the entire planet would likely have to deal with little to no sun for at least 2 years. For the Lake Ilopango eruption (which was a approx 6.9 blast) it eliminated nearly all sunlight in the northern hemisphere for 2 years (a VEI-8 would be significantly worse). Here is a quote from "Michael the Syrian" re: the weather in 537 C.E.: Back to your question... it wouldn't take more than a month for the entire planet to be clouded in darkness. North America would be in darkness in less than a few days. Also, a VEI-8 eruption lasts for 3-4 weeks (the last one occurred 74,000 years ago in Indonesia). Those would be major concerns. All of North American land and water would be destroyed. No agricultural production could continue. No water would be drinkable. Depending on the winds land and water in much of the rest of the world would be negatively effected. In fact, the air would not be breathable. Volcanic ash is composed of small tiny rocks. When you breath that air those rocks turn into cement in your lungs. IMO, all of North America would cease to exist as we know it. People on the east coast could be more easily evacuated (if there was international cooperation). People on the west coast would have little chance of survival. As stated above, the blast would last for weeks. No plane or vehicle could get in to the area to save the people there. They would not be safe in their homes (ash would collapse roofs), no water would be drinkable, and all electricity would be cut off. They would need to be in a bunker with lots of bottled water and canned food and of course... tin can could help as well! (if mk and JakobVirgil work their magic in time) It is for these reason that I have argued that NASA coordinate an analogous program for supervolcano identification and preparation that they have done for asteroids. Asteroids are a massive concern and we should be putting in even more effort to make sure we know when the next one is coming so that we can prepare and avert disaster. But supervolcanoes happen at a higher frequency than asteroids on geologic time scales. A VEI-8 poses a threat to human civilization (I don't think it would cause extinction). We should be investing a lot of money into preparing for such an event, however unlikely. I'm disappointed that not even The Long Now Foundation has proposed such measures.
How long would the ash block out the sun?
“The sun became dark and its darkness lasted for one and a half years... Each day it shone for about four hours and still this light was only a feeble shadow...the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes.”
How much of the ash would coat the vegetation or even pollute drinking water? Are these the concerns?
If Yellowstone erupted out west, what would be the ecological impact to the east coast?
Thanks for the shoutout. I wonder if a VEI-8 eruption is something that we can reasonably plan for. For example, when the Yellowstone caldera blows again the US will cease to exist as we know it, and the effects of the ash-cloud upon global food production would cause starvation across the globe. Perhaps we don't plan because there is no effective plan to be had? I think it's worth mentioning that ground water would still be drinkable, however. There were a few weeks a couple of years ago where there was an increase in earthquake activity under Yellowstone Lake. At that time, I considered what would be a reasonable plan of action here in Michigan. I just learned this from Wikipedia: I always imagined that it was simply a matter of pressure building to a breaking point. I didn't know there was a catalyst component.The volcanic eruptions, as well as the continuing geothermal activity, are a result of a great cove of magma located below the caldera's surface. The magma in this cove contains gases that are kept dissolved only by the immense pressure that the magma is under. If the pressure is released to a sufficient degree by some geological shift, then some of the gases bubble out and cause the magma to expand. This can cause a runaway reaction. If the expansion results in further relief of pressure, for example, by blowing crust material off the top of the chamber, the result is a very large gas explosion.
I outlined some of my thoughts on how we should move forward with the knowledge that supervolcanoes are a thing we are likely to encounter if we don't kill ourselves first:We may not be able to predict supervolcanic eruptions, but a recent study published in the journal Nature indicates that there are characteristic processes that occur decades (perhaps even a century) before a major eruption. If volcanologists can gain a better understanding of these pre-eruption processes, we may be able to detect the next supereruption decades before the event. This would at least give us time to prepare (possibly avert?) disaster. Yet we have no official plan to deal with VEI-8 eruptions. Even the Long Now Foundation, an organization focused on promoting a 10,000 year framework to build our global civilization has no official stance or plan for dealing with a VEI-8 eruption. So what should we do? I would argue that our current knowledge of past supervolcanic eruption events indicate that they pose a significant risk to global stability. I also feel that it would be enormously irresponsible if our species did not develop a program analogous to the NASA PHO effort. So here is what I propose we must do:
1. We must gain as much data and knowledge of past supervolcanic eruptions as possible.
2. We must attempt to understand whether supervolcanic eruptions occur in any recognizable pattern on geologic time scales so that we can roughly estimate when we should expect the next major eruption.
3. We must fund volcanology research into better understanding the processes that occur decades (and even centuries) before a major eruption.
4. And we must start to hypothesize about technology and/or methods that could be used to prevent supervolcanic eruptions.
Thoughts on averting it? We'd have to apply artificial pressure to the air inside the chamber, which seems ridiculously difficult. (As an aside, a book I now vow to write, no matter how scientifically inaccurate: is the story of the most dedicated suicide bomber of all time, who penetrated our defenses around the Yellowstone caldera and blew it up by releasing the pressure.)
The interesting thing is that computer simulations of these scenarios should be able to give us a good idea of what approach to take.
That sounds awesome!!! Write it!!! I would love to help if you have any questions or you need someone to go over a draft. Check out the BBC docudrama about a Yellowstone eruption for some ideas as well!