You ain’t wrong but I’m concerned that this incumbent is coming into the primary really weak and he might have a tough time even against the extremely weak republican field. The economy looks like it might be getting ready to turn again. The rate hikes are going to bite soon enough. That’s not going to help him either unless he can kick the can for 14 more months. Ukraine ain’t going great and it’s not likely to improve by next year. The very least he could do is swap Harris for someone more likeable. Maybe pull Michelle Obama or similar to boost his odds and campaign energy. I’d put 60:40 on Biden right now but I still don’t like those odds. Trump cleared the field of moderates so only the extremes are even out there
I disagree. My considered observation is that the Biden administration has kept the plates spinning for long enough that when they come crashing down, he can say "this wouldn't be happening if the Republicans let me have my way a year ago" with facts, soundbites and graphs to back him up. From a campaign standpoint, the Democrats need the business community to be lethargic. They traditionally back Republicans and being able to go "you've operated for four years under near -'70s business conditions and you're doing great" is likely to keep the wallets closed of all but the toothiest idealists. Ukraine? They've broken through the Russian defensive lines at Robotyne. They've established a beachhead on the left bank of the Dnipro They just shut down civil aviation in Russia for several hours with cardboard. And the CIA? VDV in Kyiv was Gabriel blowing his trumpet to them; this is the ratfucking they've trained for for eighty fucking years. The 2024 election is going to be very, very different from the 2020 election from the 2016 election. Kamala Harris is "unlikeable" the same way Flava Flav is unserious. It's the VP's job to be the foil for the opposing party. Look at Dan Quayle. Look at Dick Cheney. Mike Pence was brought on to make it appear as if Trump had someone other than Steve Bannon to ask questions of; we saw how well that went but fundamentally, the job of the VP is to be the un-president. That's how she ran for the job - attacking Biden during the primaries and appearing adversarial was the whole of the gig. Biden had already promised massive concessions to the SCLC in order to gain their endorsement; Kamala Harris was gonna get the gig no matter what. It's funny that you're putting Michelle Obama as somehow more electable than Kamala Harris, despite the fact that republicans ceaselessly referred to her as an ape.