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comment by goobster
goobster  ·  917 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 22, 2021

Yellowstone isn't a real concern to any legit scientist. It got some buzz in the ill-informed media, but no legit scientist believes it is anything other than a hot hole in ground that is mostly dangerous to those who fall into one of the vents. Explosive Yellowstone events are in the past.

As far as relocating ahead of climate change migration... yep. Am on the same page here.

Working with another couple to find the right piece of land for the four of us to construct two "vacation homes" ... which will also be our fallback positions, if things go to shit. Fortunately, here in the Pacific Northwest we have some seriously righteous land available, that is of no interest to Amazon employees (and their pocketbooks), and are very difficult for your average climate refugee to access.

I have about a 38% belief that in my lifetime, "I got mine, so fuck you" is going to be a required mindset, as people are forced to leave their bioregions due to desertification, and move to the greener bits of land... like where I live. Taking a defensive stance today, to address this potential for tomorrow, is a practical move.





goobster  ·  912 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Your Vox article was a part of the scare a few years ago, and led the geophysicists to revamp their analyses and give updates on the Yellowstone situation.

The key problem with Yellowstone is that there have been three big events, and the average of three data points is meaningless, plus volcanoes don't work that way and fail to erupt on schedule. They erupt when the magma chamber gets over 50% liquid, and Yellowstone's is only about 5-15% currently, as it slowly moves across the historically cooler and less active geography of the midwest. So there's no reason to think it may erupt... and even if it did, an eruption would be a lava flow, not a huge volcanic event like we usually associate with volcanoes.

The journal of the American Geophysical Society (EOS) has an excellent article for the lay-person here, which lays it all out with the latest science: https://eos.org/features/dont-call-it-a-supervolcano

And the USGS - while being less eloquent - agrees: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt

user-inactivated  ·  874 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Didn’t see this response in my feed, but glad I found it. Thanks for both follow up and concise breakdown.

My brother is doomscrolling about the Canary Islands and figured I’d pitch him further myth-dispelling info.

P.S. EOS is the shit.

user-inactivated  ·  914 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Your first few sentences triggered a need to visit more current findings… regardless of what was found the delivery implies smaller explosions are not concerning… sure. The BIG one occurring is not likely now, you’re right. Another concern off the mind, great! But regarding following:

    Explosive Yellowstone events are in the past.

One concept which stuck with me from astronomy: geophysical calamities are a matter of when - not if. From a human’s perspective in 2021, maybe they are a thing of the past. But historically, there have been roughly 0.8 mil between Yellowstone’s 3 super-explosions. So, 140,000 years from now would be a time to re-evaluate.

Speaking of, beginning to narrow in on climate/land criteria before suitability modeling/GIS application. It’s odd how my parents are so checked out, while their sons are quietly talking of migrating the whole family ahead of the worst to come (generations out, mind you).

Expecting that mindset never hurt.

EDIT:

Ref. source layered with Army Corps of Engineers and USGS data.

https://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108169/yellowstone-supervolcano-eruption